Michael Keenan

A dying industry – or not? The future of the European textiles and clothing industry

The textiles and clothing sector employs millions of people in the European Union (EU) and has a combined annual turnover of more than €200 billion. Over the last decade or so, more than a million jobs have been lost in the industry, partly through modernisation, but mainly as a result of international competition, especially from developing countries. This competition is set to intensify with the abolition of import quotas in 2005, leaving the EU industry facing an uncertain future. This article explores five key drivers that are likely to affect the sector profoundly over the coming decade. For each driver, three “outlooks” have been articulated: an extrapolation of current trends and drivers (“Alpha” outlook), a situation where many things “go wrong” (“Beta” outlook), and a situation involving more visionary outcomes (“Delta” outlook). The aim is not to forecast the future, but rather to explore plausible outcomes for the industry over the coming decade. On this basis, a number of policy areas have been identified where the European Commission (EC) and Member States will need to address future threats and opportunities.

Comparing foresight “style” in six world regions

– The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional context – in terms of political, socio‐economic, and cultural conditions – will affect foresight “style”. At the same time, a secondary hypothesis acknowledges that policy tool transfer and international learning might soften the influence of contextual conditions., – Using the data collected for more than 800 foresight exercises in six world regions, the paper considers eight different dimensions of foresight “style”, including domain coverage, time horizon, target groups, and methods used. It interprets regional differences (and similarities) with reference to dominant political and economic traditions in each region. In so doing, it tests the hypothesis that foresight “style” is influenced by regional context., – The analysis suggests that some foresight “style” dimensions vary between regions more than others. For example, there is marked variation in the domain areas covered by foresight across the world, while some regions appear to prefer particular methods over others. Time horizons also vary. For other dimensions, such as participation levels and the identity of target groups, there is a good deal of similarity. Thus, some dimensions of “style”, at least at the aggregate level, seem to be more influenced by regional context than others., – The paper is unique in being the first publication to survey such a large sample of foresight activity across a wide part of the globe.

Broken promises and/or techno dreams? The future of health and social services in Europe

Despite differences in political approaches and institutional frameworks, health and social services in all European Union (EU) Member States face similar challenges, notably the need to adjust to demographic ageing and to changing employment and family patterns. This article takes a closer look at some of those issues (drivers) that are likely to have significant implications for the future of the sector. On this basis, three diverging “integrated visions” for health and social services are presented. The first vision is a “best guesstimate” and assumes that current developmental targets, for example, on reducing cardiovascular disease, are generally met. The second vision is a “problem‐plagued” view of health and social services, where targets are missed and the current level of service generally stays the same or deteriorates. Finally, the third vision presents a more “visionary” picture of health and social services where services are largely transformed from what is known today. All “integrated visions” have been constructed from existing health‐care scenarios as well as the drivers identified earlier. The paper is rounded off with an account of some of the policy measures being implemented by the European Commission and Member States in addressing several of the areas highlighted as important for the future of the sector.

Assessing the impact of the UK's evolving national foresight programme

The paper describes the evolution of the UKs National Foresight Programme through its three cycles of existence. It assesses the impacts of each stage, the first two in brief and the third in some detail, drawing upon a recently completed evaluation by PREST. Evolution is noted from an exercise aiming to set priorities and build networks as a broad instrument of science and innovation policy to a set of science-based discrete projects reaching across government. Questions are raised concerning how the programme has reacted (or not) to evaluation, and what lessons there are from the present stage.

Editors' introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network

Purpose – This paper seeks to provide an introduction to the special issue of foresight, dedicated to the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN).Design/methodology/approach – The paper sets out the projects rationale and its scope and approach.Findings – The paper presents some of the achievements of the EFMN, as well as some of its limitations.Originality/value – The paper considers how the EFMN might be sustained and further developed over the longer term. It also provides a brief description of the main papers in the special issue.

FORESIGHT FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PRIORITY SETTING IN A SMALL COUNTRY: THE CASE OF LUXEMBOURG

This paper sets out to review the conduct and immediate impacts of a two-year national technology foresight exercise (2006–2007) conducted in one of Europe’s smallest and wealthiest countries, Luxembourg. The country’s small size brings into sharp view many of the underlying tensions present in those foresight exercises that explicitly attempt to set national priorities. These tensions include the ability (or otherwise) to underpin the foresight process with sufficient and appropriate ‘objectivised’ knowledge (including national statistics, international benchmarking data, and future-oriented ‘intelligence’), the organisation of dialogic spaces that are not solely ‘hijacked’ by special interests and setting the ‘granularity’ of emergent priorities at a level that makes them ‘operationalisable’ in informing research and development funding programmes. The exercise was organised by the FNR (Fonds national de la recherche or National Research Fund), the only research council in Luxembourg. The paper shows that the position of the FNR in the research landscape had both benefits and drawbacks during the conduct of the exercise as well as for the follow-up implementation. The paper builds upon an earlier paper which described the first phase of the FNR Foresight exercise. The current paper extends this analysis to the second and third phases of the exercise, as well as to the immediate implementation phase after the publication of its results. By doing so, it covers the evolution of the foresight exercise over its two-year life span, highlighting the different meanings given to the exercise by different stakeholder groups as the process unfolded and interim results were made known. The paper draws lessons not only for other small countries and regions hoping to use foresight, but also highlights principles for using foresight for priority-setting more generally.

Moving to the Innovation Frontier: Lessons from the OECD Review of Korean Innovation Policy

During 2007–2008, the OECD carried out a review of Korea’s innovation policy (OECD 2009), offering a comprehensive assessment of the innovation system with a special focus on the role of government. The Korean review is one of a series of national innovation policy reviews being carried out by the OECD1 and was intended to assess government policy in the area of science, technology and innovation (STI). The review paid particular attention to the science base, but also covered the wider innovation system, including the activities of firms and the ‘framework conditions’ conducive to supporting their innovation performance.