Ayan H. Chaudhuri

Contrasting Response of the Eastern and Western North Atlantic Circulation to an Episodic Climate Event

AbstractRegional observational studies in the North Atlantic have noted significant hydrographical shifts in 1997–98 because of the episodic drop in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during 1996. Investigation using a basin-scale model finds that, although the western North Atlantic (WNA) witnessed unusually low-salinity water by 1997, the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) simultaneously evidenced intrusions of high-salinity water at intermediate depths. This study shows that a major source of high salinity in the ENA is from the northward penetration of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) that occurred concurrently with a westward shift of the subpolar front. The authors confirm that the low-salinity intrusion in the WNA is from enhanced Labrador Current flow. Results from climatological high- and low-NAO simulations suggest that the NAO-induced circulation changes that occurred in 1997–98 are a characteristic North Atlantic basin response to different forcing conditions during characteristic high- and low-N...

TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME COMPUTATION AND SKILL ASSESSMENT FOR THE 26 DECEMBER 2004 EVENT IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

Tsunami waves are considered the most dangerous natural hazard affecting the population of the world living near the coastal belts. With the increasing intensity of economic exploitation of coasts there is also an increase in socio-economic consequences resulting from the hazardous action of tsunami waves generated from submarine seismic activity and other causes. On 26 December 2004, the countries within the vicinity of East Indian Ocean experienced the most devastating tsunami in recorded history. This tsunami was triggered by an earthquake of magnitude 9.0 on the Richter scale at 3.4°N, 95.7°E off the coast of Sumatra in the Indonesian Archipelago at 06:29 hrs IST (00:59 hrs GMT). As of now (September, 2005), the only Tsunami Warning System (TWS) that is in existence is the one for the Pacific Ocean, which began in the late 1940s. Following the recent disastrous tsunami of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean, the nations around the Indian Ocean rim are now working together to establish a tsunami warning system which should become operational in the near future. One of the most basic information that an Indian Ocean tsunami warning center should have at its disposal, is information on tsunami travel times to various coastal locations surrounding the Indian Ocean rim, as well to several island locations. Devoid of this information, no ETAs (expected times of arrival) can be included in the real-time tsunami warnings. The importance of ETA for tsunami warning system motivated the computation of arrival times comprising 250 representative coastal locations from 35 countries, showing the feasibility of developing a TWS in a relatively short time-span. Numerical accuracy in computating arrival times for this energetic event has been verified from in situ tide gauge data and satellite track data from Jason-I and Topex/Poseidon in the Indian Ocean and also from coastal stations off South Africa. The expected outcome of this work is to develop a widely distributed tsunami travel time (TTT) atlas which can serve as a valuable information database to reduce warning time in the event of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean and promote awareness among the population dwelling in the littoral belts of the South-Asian countries.

Quantifying Greenland freshwater flux underestimates in climate models

Key processes regulating the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) are not represented in current-generation climate models. Here using output from 19 different climate models forced with a high-end business-as-usual emissions pathway, we compare modeled freshwater fluxes (FWF) to a parameterization based on midtropospheric temperature. By the mid 21st century, parameterized GIS FWF is 478 ± 215xa0km3xa0yr−1 larger than modeled—over 3 times the 1992–2011 rate of GIS mass loss. By the late 21st century, ensemble mean parameterized GIS FWF anomalies are comparable to FWF anomalies over the northern North Atlantic Ocean, equivalent to approximately 11xa0cm of global mean sea level rise. The magnitude and spread of these underestimates underscores the need for assessments of the coupled response of the ocean to increased FWF that recognize: (1) the widely varying freshwater budgets of each model and (2) uncertainty in the relationship between GIS FWF and atmospheric temperature.

On the Nature of Temporal Variability of the Gulf Stream Path from 75° to 55°W

AbstractThe response of the Gulf Stream (GS) system to atmospheric forcing is generally linked either to the basin-scale winds on the subtropical gyre or to the buoyancy forcing from the Labrador Sea. This study presents a multiscale synergistic perspective to describe the low-frequency response of the GS system. The authors identify dominant temporal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in known indices of the GS path, and in the observed GS latitudes along its path derived from sea surface height (SSH) contours over the period 1993–2013. The analysis suggests that the signature of interannual variability changes along the stream’s path from 75° to 55°W. From its separation at Cape Hatteras to the west of 65°W, the variability of the GS is mainly in the near-decadal (7–10 years) band, which is missing to the east of 60°W, where a new interannual (4–5 years) band peaks. The latter peak (4–5 years) was missing to the west of 65°W. The region between 65° and 60°W seems to be a transition reg...

Long-Period Tides in an Atmospherically Driven, Stratified Ocean

AbstractLong-period tides (LPT) are studied using a stratified, primitive equation model on a global domain and in the presence of a fully developed, atmospherically forced ocean general circulation. The major LPT constituents, from termensual to nodal (18.6 yr) periods, are examined. Ocean circulation variability can overwhelm the longest tide signals and make inferring LPT from data difficult, but model results suggest that bottom pressure offers cleaner signal-to-noise ratios than sea level, particularly at low latitudes where atmospherically driven variability is substantially stronger at the surface than at the bottom. Most tides exhibit a significant large-scale dynamic response, with the tendency for weaker nonequilibrium signals in the Atlantic compared to the Pacific as seen in previous studies. However, across most tidal lines, the largest dynamic signals tend to occur in the Arctic and Nordic Seas and also in Hudson Bay. Bathymetry and coastal geometry contribute to the modeled nonequilibrium b...