Aylin Seckin

An analysis of the price dynamics between the Turkish and the international paintings markets

We examine the dynamics of the relationships between the prices in Turkish paintings auctions and international art markets during 1990–2005 using cointegration and Granger-causality tests. We also estimate the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) relationship between the Turkish and the global paintings markets. In our investigations, we employ a hedonic price index based on 1030 paintings by 13 Turkish painters and the global paintings market index as calculated by Artprice©. We find that the prices in the Turkish paintings market move in line with the international art markets in the long term. As expected, the direction of causality runs unilaterally from the international paintings market to the Turkish paintings market. The CAPM beta values were found to be unstable over time and not statistically significant at conventional levels. Hence, international art investors might be able to benefit from the higher returns in the Turkish paintings market while diversifying their art portfolios, especially in the short term.

Dynamic Price Dependence of Canadian and International Art Markets: An Empirical Analysis

Although the market for Canadian paintings is now of substantial magnitude, with several works having recently been sold for well over a million dollars, it remains true that with very few exceptions, the works of Canadian painters are bought and sold only in Canada and seem to be held only by Canadian collectors. This market can thus be viewed as largely local, and it is therefore not clear whether there should be any linkage between price movements for Canadian art and those for the mainstream international market in old master, impressionist, and modern art. This article investigates the presence and nature of such time series dependence econometrically, both in terms of long-term trends as reflected in the co-integrating relationship between Canadian and the international market, and in terms of short-run co-movements as represented in correlations. The possibility that the local market “follows” the international one is also considered through an analysis of Granger causality. For Canadian art prices, we use a new hedonic index that has been computed using an updated version of the dataset of Hodgson and Vorkink (Can J Econ 37:629–655, 2004 ), while for the international prices, we use an index provided by Mei and Moses (Am Econ Rev 92:1656–1668, 2002 ). Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

Demographic Dividends in the ‘South’, Ageing ‘North’, and ‘South-South’ Trade Diversification

ABSTRACT The absence of clear convergence in incomes per capita and welfare between the North and the South, even in the face of spectacular growth rates in GDP in the emerging South, might be due to a terms of trade deterioration resulting from an expansion of production in the South which depresses the product’s price on world markets. This may originate from a “technical catch up” and also from a “demographic dividend” in the South relative to an ageing North. This article illustrates that some South-South trade diversification might mitigate the terms of trade deterioration and increase welfare gains in the South. We use a multicountry overlapping-generation general equilibrium model to simulate the magnitude of the terms of trade effect due to a demographic dividend in Turkey, and show that some trade diversification away from EU toward the South is a welfare improving policy for Turkey.