Azhar Nizam

Aggressive medical treatment with or without stenting in high-risk patients with intracranial artery stenosis (SAMMPRIS): The final results of a randomised trial

BACKGROUND Early results of the Stenting and Aggressive Medical Management for Preventing Recurrent stroke in Intracranial Stenosis trial showed that, by 30 days, 33 (14·7%) of 224 patients in the stenting group and 13 (5·8%) of 227 patients in the medical group had died or had a stroke (percentages are product limit estimates), but provided insufficient data to establish whether stenting offered any longer-term benefit. Here we report the long-term outcome of patients in this trial. METHODS We randomly assigned (1:1, stratified by centre with randomly permuted block sizes) 451 patients with recent transient ischaemic attack or stroke related to 70-99% stenosis of a major intracranial artery to aggressive medical management (antiplatelet therapy, intensive management of vascular risk factors, and a lifestyle-modification programme) or aggressive medical management plus stenting with the Wingspan stent. The primary endpoint was any of the following: stroke or death within 30 days after enrolment, ischaemic stroke in the territory of the qualifying artery beyond 30 days of enrolment, or stroke or death within 30 days after a revascularisation procedure of the qualifying lesion during follow-up. Primary endpoint analysis of between-group differences with log-rank test was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT 00576693. FINDINGS During a median follow-up of 32·4 months, 34 (15%) of 227 patients in the medical group and 52 (23%) of 224 patients in the stenting group had a primary endpoint event. The cumulative probability of the primary endpoints was smaller in the medical group versus the percutaneous transluminal angioplasty and stenting (PTAS) group (p=0·0252). Beyond 30 days, 21 (10%) of 210 patients in the medical group and 19 (10%) of 191 patients in the stenting group had a primary endpoint. The absolute differences in the primary endpoint rates between the two groups were 7·1% at year 1 (95% CI 0·2 to 13·8%; p=0·0428), 6·5% at year 2 (-0·5 to 13·5%; p=0·07) and 9·0% at year 3 (1·5 to 16·5%; p=0·0193). The occurrence of the following adverse events was higher in the PTAS group than in the medical group: any stroke (59 [26%] of 224 patients vs 42 [19%] of 227 patients; p=0·0468) and major haemorrhage (29 [13%]of 224 patients vs 10 [4%] of 227 patients; p=0·0009). INTERPRETATION The early benefit of aggressive medical management over stenting with the Wingspan stent for high-risk patients with intracranial stenosis persists over extended follow-up. Our findings lend support to the use of aggressive medical management rather than PTAS with the Wingspan system in high-risk patients with atherosclerotic intracranial arterial stenosis. FUNDING National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) and others.

Critical Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in the Environment of Bangladesh

ABSTRACT The occurrence of outbreaks of cholera in Africa in 1970 and in Latin America in 1991, mainly in coastal communities, and the appearance of the new serotype Vibrio cholerae O139 in India and subsequently in Bangladesh have stimulated efforts to understand environmental factors influencing the growth and geographic distribution of epidemic Vibrio cholerae serotypes. Because of the severity of recent epidemics, cholera is now being considered by some infectious disease investigators as a “reemerging” disease, prompting new work on the ecology of vibrios. Epidemiological and ecological surveillance for cholera has been under way in four rural, geographically separated locations in Bangladesh for the past 4 years, during which both clinical and environmental samples were collected at biweekly intervals. The clinical epidemiology portion of the research has been published (Sack et al., J. Infect. Dis. 187:96-101, 2003). The results of environmental sampling and analysis of the environmental and clinical data have revealed significant correlations of water temperature, water depth, rainfall, conductivity, and copepod counts with the occurrence of cholera toxin-producing bacteria (presumably V. cholerae). The lag periods between increases or decreases in units of factors, such as temperature and salinity, and occurrence of cholera correlate with biological parameters, e.g., plankton population blooms. The new information on the ecology of V. cholerae is proving useful in developing environmental models for the prediction of cholera epidemics.

Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, has been shown to be autochthonous to riverine, estuarine, and coastal waters along with its host, the copepod, a significant member of the zooplankton community. Temperature, salinity, rainfall and plankton have proven to be important factors in the ecology of V. cholerae, influencing the transmission of the disease in those regions of the world where the human population relies on untreated water as a source of drinking water. In this study, the pattern of cholera outbreaks during 1998–2006 in Kolkata, India, and Matlab, Bangladesh, and the earth observation data were analyzed with the objective of developing a prediction model for cholera. Satellite sensors were used to measure chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, rainfall data were obtained from both satellite and in situ gauge measurements. From the analyses, a statistically significant relationship between the time series for cholera in Kolkata, India, and CHL and rainfall anomalies was determined. A statistically significant one month lag was observed between CHL anomaly and number of cholera cases in Matlab, Bangladesh. From the results of the study, it is concluded that ocean and climate patterns are useful predictors of cholera epidemics, with the dynamics of endemic cholera being related to climate and/or changes in the aquatic ecosystem. When the ecology of V. cholerae is considered in predictive models, a robust early warning system for cholera in endemic regions of the world can be developed for public health planning and decision making.

Controlling Endemic Cholera with Oral Vaccines

Background Although advances in rehydration therapy have made cholera a treatable disease with low case-fatality in settings with appropriate medical care, cholera continues to impose considerable mortality in the worlds most impoverished populations. Internationally licensed, killed whole-cell based oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been available for over a decade, but have not been used for the control of cholera. Recently, these vaccines were shown to confer significant levels of herd protection, suggesting that the protective potential of these vaccines has been underestimated and that these vaccines may be highly effective in cholera control when deployed in mass immunization programs. We used a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the possibility of controlling endemic cholera with OCVs. Methods and Findings We construct a large-scale, stochastic cholera transmission model of Matlab, Bangladesh. We find that cholera transmission could be controlled in endemic areas with 50% coverage with OCVs. At this level of coverage, the model predicts that there would be an 89% (95% confidence interval [CI] 72%–98%) reduction in cholera cases among the unvaccinated, and a 93% (95% CI 82%–99%) reduction overall in the entire population. Even a more modest coverage of 30% would result in a 76% (95% CI 44%–95%) reduction in cholera incidence for the population area covered. For populations that have less natural immunity than the population of Matlab, 70% coverage would probably be necessary for cholera control, i.e., an annual incidence rate of ≤ 1 case per 1,000 people in the population. Conclusions Endemic cholera could be reduced to an annual incidence rate of ≤ 1 case per 1,000 people in endemic areas with biennial vaccination with OCVs if coverage could reach 50%–70% depending on the level of prior immunity in the population. These vaccination efforts could be targeted with careful use of ecological data.

A 4-Year Study of the Epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae in Four Rural Areas of Bangladesh

How Vibrio cholerae spreads around the world and what determines its seasonal peaks in endemic areas are not known. These features of cholera have been hypothesized to be primarily the result of environmental factors associated with aquatic habitats that can now be identified. Since 1997, fortnightly surveillance in 4 widely separated geographic locations in Bangladesh has been performed to identify patients with cholera and to collect environmental data. A total of 5670 patients (53% <5 years of age) have been studied; 14.3% had cholera (10.4% due to V. cholerae O1 El Tor, 3.8% due to O139). Both serogroups were found in all locations; outbreaks were seasonal and often occurred simultaneously. Water-use patterns showed that bathing and washing clothes in tube-well water was significantly protective in two of the sites. These data will be correlated with environmental factors, to develop a model for prediction of cholera outbreaks.

El Tor cholera with severe disease: a new threat to Asia and beyond.

During epidemics of cholera in two rural sites (Bakerganj and Mathbaria), a much higher proportion of patients came for treatment with severe dehydration than was seen in previous years. V. cholerae O1 isolated from these patients was found to be El Tor in its phenotype, but its cholera toxin (CT) was determined to be that of classical biotype. Whether the observed higher proportion of severe dehydration produced by the El Tor biotype was due to a shift from El Tor to classical CT or due to other factors is not clear. However, if cholera due to strains with increased severity spread to other areas where treatment facilities are limited, there are likely to be many more cholera deaths.

Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the United States using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model.

OBJECTIVES To project the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies from a societal perspective in the United States. METHODS We use a stochastic agent-based model to simulate pandemic influenza in the community. We compare 17 strategies: targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) alone and in combination with school closure as well as prevaccination. RESULTS In the absence of intervention, we predict a 50% attack rate with an economic impact of

Results of the Prospective Evaluation of Radial Keratotomy (PERK) Study Five Years after Surgery

187 per capita as loss to society. Full TAP (FTAP) is the most effective single strategy, reducing number of cases by 54% at the lowest cost to society (

Epidemic and Endemic Cholera Trends over a 33-Year Period in Bangladesh

127 per capita). Prevaccination reduces number of cases by 48% and is the second least costly alternative (

Estimation of the efficacy of live, attenuated influenza vaccine from a two-year, multi-center vaccine trial: implications for influenza epidemic control.

140 per capita). Adding school closure to FTAP or prevaccination further improves health outcomes but increases total cost to society by approximately