B. A. Carter

A new dynamic approach for statistical optimization of GNSS radio occultation bending angles for optimal climate monitoring utility

[1] Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based radio occultation (RO) is a satellite remote sensing technique providing accurate profiles of the Earth’s atmosphere for weather and climate applications. Above about 30km altitude, however, statistical optimization is a critical process for initializing the RO bending angles in order to optimize the climate monitoring utility of the retrieved atmospheric profiles. Here we introduce an advanced dynamic statistical optimization algorithm, which uses bending angles from multiple days of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) short-range forecast and analysis fields, together with averaged-observed bending angles, to obtain background profiles and associated error covariance matrices with geographically varying background uncertainty estimates on a daily updated basis. The new algorithm is evaluated against the existing Wegener Center Occultation Processing System version 5.4 (OPSv5.4) algorithm, using several days of simulated MetOp and observed CHAMP and COSMIC data, for January and July conditions. We find the following for the new method’s performance compared to OPSv5.4: 1.) it significantly reduces random errors (standard deviations), down to about half their size, and leaves less or about equal residual systematic errors (biases) in the optimized bending angles; 2.) the dynamic (daily) estimate of the background error correlation matrix alone already improves the optimized bending angles; 3.) the subsequently retrievedrefractivityprofilesandatmospheric(temperature)profilesbenefit by improvederror characteristics,especiallyabove about 30km. Based on theseencouraging results, we work to employ similar dynamic error covariance estimation also for the observed bending angles and to apply the method to full months and subsequently to entire climate data records.

Interplanetary shocks and the resulting geomagnetically induced currents at the equator

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) caused by interplanetary shocks represent a serious space weather threat to modern technological infrastructure. The arrival of interplanetary shocks drives magnetosphere and ionosphere current systems, which then induce electric currents at ground level. The impact of these currents at high latitudes has been extensively researched, but the magnetic equator has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we investigate the potential effects of interplanetary shocks on the equatorial region and demonstrate that their magnetic signature is amplified by the equatorial electrojet. This local amplification substantially increases the regions susceptibility to GICs. Importantly, this result applies to both geomagnetic storms and quiet periods and thus represents a paradigm shift in our understanding of adverse space weather impacts on technological infrastructure.

Global equatorial plasma bubble occurrence during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

An analysis of the occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) around the world during the 2015 St. Patricks Day geomagnetic storm is presented. A network of 12 Global Positioning System receivers spanning from South America to Southeast Asia was used, in addition to colocated VHF receivers at three stations and four nearby ionosondes. The suppression of postsunset EPBs was observed across most longitudes over 2 days. The EPB observations were compared to calculations of the linear Rayleigh-Taylor growth rate using coupled thermosphere-ionosphere modeling, which successfully modeled the transition of favorable EPB growth from postsunset to postmidnight hours during the storm. The mechanisms behind the growth of postmidnight EPBs during this storm were investigated. While the latter stages of postmidnight EPB growth were found to be dominated by disturbance dynamo effects, the initial stages of postmidnight EPB growth close to local midnight were found to be controlled by the higher altitudes of the plasma (i.e., the gravity term). Modeling and observations revealed that during the storm the ionospheric plasma was redistributed to higher altitudes in the low-latitude region, which made the plasma more susceptible to Rayleigh-Taylor growth prior to the dominance of the disturbance dynamo in the eventual generation of postmidnight EPBs.

Geomagnetic control of equatorial plasma bubble activity modeled by the TIEGCM with Kp

Describing the day-to-day variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubble (EPB) occurrence remains a significant challenge. In this study we use the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), driven by solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Kp) activity indices, to study daily variations of the linear Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability growth rate in relation to the measured scintillation strength at five longitudinally distributed stations. For locations characterized by generally favorable conditions for EPB growth (i.e., within the scintillation season for that location), we find that the TIEGCM is capable of identifying days when EPB development, determined from the calculated R-T growth rate, is suppressed as a result of geomagnetic activity. Both observed and modeled upward plasma drifts indicate that the prereversal enhancement scales linearly with Kp from several hours prior, from which it is concluded that even small Kp changes cause significant variations in daily EPB growth.

An analysis of the quiet time day‐to‐day variability in the formation of postsunset equatorial plasma bubbles in the Southeast Asian region

Presented is an analysis of the occurrence of postsunset Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) detected using a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver at Vanimo. The three year data set shows that the EPB occurrence maximizes (minimizes) during the equinoxes (solstices), in good agreement with previous findings. The Vanimo ionosonde station is used with the GPS receiver in an analysis of the day-to-day EPB occurrence variability during the 2000 equinox period. A superposed epoch analysis (SEA) reveals that the altitude, and the change in altitude, of the F layer height is ∼1 standard deviation (1σ) larger on the days for which EPBs were detected, compared to non-EPB days. These results are then compared to results from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM), which show strong similarities with the observations. The TIEGCM is used to calculate the flux-tube integrated Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability linear growth rate. A SEA reveals that the modeled R-T growth rate is 1σ higher on average for EPB days compared to non-EPB days, and that the upward plasma drift is the most dominant contributor. It is further demonstrated that the TIEGCMs success in describing the observed daily EPB variability during the scintillation season resides in the variations caused by geomagnetic activity (as parameterized by Kp) rather than solar EUV flux (as parameterized by F10.7). Geomagnetic activity varies the modeled high-latitude plasma convection and the associated Joule heating that affects the low-latitude F region dynamo, and consequently the equatorial upward plasma drift. Key Points Day-to-day EPB occurrence in Southeast Asia investigated using ground-based GPS TIEGCM exhibits similiar daily variability to the EPB observations Small changes in Kp strongly influence daily EPB occurrence variability.

Using solar wind data to predict daily GPS scintillation occurrence in the African and Asian low‐latitude regions

The feasibility of predicting the daily occurrence of Global Positioning System scintillation events using forecasts of common geophysical indices to drive a physics-based model of the system is demonstrated over a 5 month period for the African and Asian longitude sectors. The output from the Wing Kp model, which uses solar wind data to predict the geomagnetic activity level up to 4 h in advance, was used to drive the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/ionosphere model, from which the strength of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rate was calculated to determine the likelihood of scintillation. It is found that the physics-based model demonstrates superior skill to an empirical scintillation model (Wideband Model (WBMOD)) in forecasting scintillation suppression events during seasons when scintillation is common. However, neither of the models driven in this way possess the ability to forecast isolated scintillation events during transitional and off-peak seasons.

Geomagnetically induced currents around the world during the 17 March 2015 storm

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm-time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and South-East Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in South-East Asia and during the main phase of the storm ∼ 10 hours later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in South-East Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ ∼ 10 hours into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solar wind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

Interhemispheric propagation and interactions of auroral traveling ionospheric disturbances near the equator

We present the results of our GPS total electron content and ionosonde observations of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) during the 26 September 2011 geomagnetic storm. We analyzed the propagation characteristics of these LSTIDs from the auroral zones all the way to the equatorial region and studied how the auroral LSTIDs from opposite hemispheres interact/interfere near the geomagnetic equator. We found an overall propagation speed of 700 m/s for these LSTIDs and that the resultant amplitude of the LSTID interference pattern actually far exceeded the sum of individual amplitudes of the incoming LSTIDs from the immediate vicinity of the interference zone. We suspect that this peculiar intensification of auroral LSTIDs around the geomagnetic equator is facilitated by the significantly higher ceiling/canopy of the ionospheric plasma layer there. Normally, acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) that leak upward (and thus increase in amplitude) would find a negligible level of plasma density at the topside ionosphere. However, the tip of the equatorial fountain at the geomagnetic equator constitutes a significant amount of plasma at a topside-equivalent altitude. The combination of increased AGW amplitudes and a higher plasma density at such altitude would therefore result in higher-amplitude LSTIDs in this particular region, as demonstrated in our observations and analysis.

A New Pseudo Three-Dimensional Segment Method Analytical Ray Tracing (3-D SMART) Technique

The new pseudo three-dimensional (3-D) segment method analytical ray tracing technique (3-D SMART) is similar to the 2-D SMART technique however with the added ability to determine the effects of transverse refractive gradients on a ray path. In the past numerical ray tracing techniques using a form of Haselgroves equations were required for realistic 3-D ray tracing. This new 3-D SMART technique is considerably less computer resource intensive than numerical ray tracing techniques and thus is of particular importance for near real-time applications and the general case where it is necessary to trace a vast number of ray paths.

Unseasonal development of post-sunset F-region irregularities over Southeast Asia on 28 July 2014: 1. Forcing from above?

AbstractThis contribution is the first of a two-part investigation into an unseasonal post-sunset equatorial F-region irregularity (EFI) event over the Southeast Asian region on the evening of 28 July 2014. Ground-based GPS scintillation data, space-based GPS radio occultation (RO) data, and ionosonde data show the existence of EFIs shortly after sunset over a region spanning 30° in longitude and 40° in latitude, centered on the geomagnetic equator. This post-sunset EFI event was observed during a time of the year when post-sunset equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are very infrequent in the Southeast Asian longitude sector. GPS RO data shows that the EFI event over Southeast Asia coincided with the suppression of peak-season EPBs in the African and Pacific longitude sectors. Ionosonde data shows the presence of a strong pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) in the upward plasma drift over Southeast Asia prior to the detection of EFIs. Further, it is reported that this PRE was significantly stronger than on any other day of July 2014. An analysis of the geophysical conditions during this event reveals that this enhanced PRE was not caused by disturbed geomagnetic activity. Therefore, it is hypothesized that forcing from lower altitudes, perhaps tidal/planetary waves, was the potential cause of this strong PRE, and the subsequent EPB/EFI activity, on this day over the Southeast Asian sector.