B. D. Shelting

Calculation of the interplanetary magnetic field based on its value in the solar photosphere

The difficulties associated with calculating the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from solar magnetic data have been considered. All conventional calculation patterns and available input databases have been analyzed from a unified standpoint. It has been shown that these assumptions and limitations cannot affect the general structure and dependence on cycle of solar and interplanetary data. At the same time, the measured solar field values are underestimated as a result of the magnetograph signal saturation effect. It has been shown that the correction should depend on the heliocentric observation latitude and cycle phase. The correction method responsible for good agreement between the calculated and measured values has been proposed. The created database makes it possible to quantitatively calculate the magnetic fields in the solar wind near the Earth.

Manifestations of cyclic variations in the solar magnetic field in long-term modulation of cosmic rays

The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the Bss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (Fx) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the Bss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.

Cosmic Ray Modulation during the Solar Activity Growth Phase of Cycle 24

Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated.

Extrema of long-term modulation of the cosmic ray intensity in the last five solar cycles

Modulation of galactic cosmic rays in cycles 19–23 of solar activity has been determined based on observations of their long-term variations on the ground and in the near-Earth space. The extreme values of long-term variations in cosmic rays, obtained from the data of continuous cosmic radiation monitoring on the ground and in the near-Earth space in the last five solar cycles, have been analyzed. The results are compared with the extrema in the characteristics of solar magnetic fields and the sunspot numbers in these cycles. The similarities and differences in cosmic ray modulation between different cycles are discussed.

Solar activity and geomagnetic disturbances

An analysis of IZNIRAN magnetic observatory data indicated that geomagnetic storms with sudden and gradual commencements form two independent populations with respect to the disturbance occurrence time and character because the solar sources of these disturbances are different. Storms with sudden and gradual commencements are caused by coronal mass ejections and high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes, respectively.

Long-term modulation of galactic cosmic rays at solar activity minimums

Based on observations of long-term variations in galactic cosmic rays (CRs) on Earth and in the near-Earth space, we have determined, using our own semiempirical model, modulation of galactic CRs during solar cycles 19–23. The modulation model relates CR variations to the characteristics of the solar magnetic field obtained for the surface of the solar wind source at distances of 2.50 and 3.25 solar radii. The main focus is CR behavior at the minimums of cycles 19–23 and specific features of CR modulation at a prolonged (as compared to previous cycles) minimum of cycle 23, which is still ongoing. CR modulation at minimums related to a change in the solar field dipole component during this period of the cycle has been considered. It is indicated that the long-term variations in CRs are better described if the last two years (2007 and 2008) of cycle 23 with anomalously low solar activity (SA) are included in the model. The role and value of the contribution of the cyclic variations in each index used in the proposed CR modulation model to the observed CR modulation have been estimated.

About the role of the Sun magnetic field characteristics in the long-term galactic cosmic rays modulation

The solar magnetic field characteristics, along with the current sheet tilt and the index taking into account X-ray flare properties, have been considered as modulating parameters in the model description of long-period cosmic rays (CR) variations in the 21st-23rd solar activity (SA) cycles. The features of behavior of the proposed indices in SA cycles are analyzed. The role of each index (and their combinations) in the CR modulation is revealed and the contribution to CR modulation at their cyclic changes is determined. The features of SA change and CR modulation during the 23rd cycle up to the end 2007 are discussed.