Bankim Chadha

Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7☆

This paper re-examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the G-7. We confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical. However, we find strong evidence that the inflation rate is procyclical in our sample. Our results show the importance of making a clear distinction between inflation and the cyclical component of the price level when reporting and interpreting stylized facts regarding business cycles.

Fiscal Constraints and the Speed of Transition

This paper develops a model of the process of reallocation of resources from a declining state sector to an expanding private sector. The transition is shown to be costly in that it entails unemployment and a deterioration of the fiscal balance. The interaction of fiscal constraints with the transition process is examined. It is shown that fiscal constraints may induce the government to maintain the state sector, slowing the speed of transition, and could jeopardize the eventual outcome of the process of restructuring.

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan

This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, whereas relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that the sharp appreciations of the yen in 1993 and 1995 and its subsequent depreciation can be attributed primarily to relative nominal shocks.

Economic Restructuring, Unemployment, and Growth in a Transition Economy

This paper develops a model of the process of reallocation of labor from the state sector to the private sector. When growth is exogenously determined, we show that in the initial stages of transition unemployment will rise. After a critical stage in the transition process, restructuring is accompanied by a decline in unemployment. When growth is endogenously determined, and human capital is acquired by learning-by-doing, we show that whether or not restructuring eventually occurs is determined by the level of human capital in the private sector and the rate of unemployment. The effects of various shocks and government policies on the costs, speed, and eventual outcome of restructuring are analyzed.

Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices

This paper argues that determining the cyclical behavior of prices by applying the same stationarity-inducing transformation to the levels of both output and prices, and examining the correlations of the resulting series, can be misleading. A more appropriate procedure is to examine the correlations between the rate of inflation and the level of the cyclical component of output. In postwar U.S. data, the correlations between similarly transformed price and output data are consistently and often strongly negative. The rate of inflation, however, is consistently and usually strongly positively correlated with various measures of the cyclical component of output.

Wages, Profitability, and Growth in a Small Open Economy

Issues raised by the evolution of a rapidly growing small economy from a labor-intensive, low-technology production base to a capital-intensive, high-technology, knowledge-and-skill-intensive emphasis as it approaches the limits of its resource constraints in the labor market are examined. A model of endogenous growth for a small open economy that is driven by increases in labor productivity from learning-by-doing and that allows for the dynamic acquisition of comparative advantage is developed. In this framework the effects of policies and exogenous shocks on the direction and pace of restructuring are investigated.

Structural Models of the Dollar

This paper addresses several questions about the time series processes followed by dollar exchange rates. The stochastic process for exchange rates implied by structural models and the conditions under which they would be described by random walks are examined. Tests on the univariate time series for dollar exchange rates are undertaken to determine if there is evidence for departures from a random walk. Multivariate tests examine whether longer-run movements in the dollar are linked to those in other economic variables, and whether deviations from these long-run relationships contain information for predicting exchange rate movements.

Are Prices Countercyclical

This paper examines the comovement of prices with the cyclical component of output. It argues that determining the cyclical behavior of prices by applying the same stationarity-inducing transformation to the levels of both output and prices, and examining the correlations of the resulting series, can be misleading. A more appropriate procedure is to examine the correlations between the rate of inflation and the level of the cyclical component of output. In post-war U.S. data the correlations between similarly transformed price and output data are consistently and often strongly negative, as reported recently by a number of authors as evidence of countercyclical price behavior. The rate of inflation, however, is consistently and usually strongly positively correlated with various measures of the cyclical component of output.

Disequilibrium in the Labor Market in South Africa

Unemployment in South Africa is decomposed into a cyclical and a structural component. The estimates suggest that unemployment is largely structural. Alternative explanations for the persistence of deviations of market wages from full-employment levels are examined. Three models that are empirically capable of generating the observed wage and employment gaps are presented. The predictions of the models for wages and employment are discussed in light of recent and prospective developments in South Africa.

On Interpreting the Random Walk Behavior of Nominal and Real Exchange Rates

The random walk property of exchange rates is frequently regarded as carrying strong implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper conducts stochastic simulations of Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model, calibrated for representative parameter values for the United States. It shows that the model is capable of generating time series for both real and nominal exchange rates that are statistically indistinguishable from random walks when all shocks are nominal.