Paul R. Masson

Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe

Regional flows of federal taxes and transfers within the United States and Canada are used to analyse long-term fiscal flows (the redistributive element) and short-term responses to regional business cycles (the stabilization element). In the United States, long-run flows amount to 22 cents in the dollar while the stabilization effect is 31 cents in the dollar. In Canada the redistributive effect is larger (39 cents) and the stabilization effect smaller (17 cents). Federal flows appear to depend on the institutional structure of the country concerned. In both countries, however, the redistributive element is considerably larger than the amounts involved in the EC Structural Funds programme. As for stabilization, national fiscal policies in the EC appear to have been as effective as federal governments in the United States and Canada in cushioning shocks to incomes.

Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy

This paper examines the consequences of heightened capital mobility and of the integration of developing economies in increasingly globalized markets for the exchange rate regimes of the industrial, developing, and transition economies. It builds upon previous studies by IMF staff on various aspects of the exchange rate arrangements of member countries, consistent with the IMFs role of surveillance over its members exchange rate policies.

Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria

Abstract Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that models that allow only a single equilibrium conditional on the macroeconomic fundamentals are not adequate to capture all forms of contagion, hence it is useful to formulate macro models that admit multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling expectations. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrate that phenomenon, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations assess its relevance to the coincidence of emerging market crises in 1994–95 and in 1997.

Exit Strategies : Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility

In a world of increasing capital mobility and broadening and more diversified trade, many (but not all) developing and transition economies are likely to find it desirable to move from relatively fixed exchange rate regimes to regimes of greater exchange rate flexibility. This paper suggests why, and considers strategies that countries may consider for such a move. It reinforces this discussion with a review of experience from teh past two decades with alternative exchange rate regimes. The paper also identifies policies that can facilitate the transition to greater exchange rate flexibility for countries that wish to pursue this option.

Policy issues in the operation of currency unions

This book provides an overview as well as the latest research on currency unions - geographical areas throughout which a single currency circulates as the medium of exchange. The issues discussed are central to debates on economic and monetary union in Europe, and the future of Eastern Europe. In addition to a specially written survey chapter by the editors, it contains previously unpublished contributions by leading researchers in the field, discussing real and potential currency unions in the United States, the former Soviet Union, Europe, and Africa.

Establishing a central bank : issues in Europe and lessons from the US

List of figures List of tables Preface List of conference participants 1. Introduction Part I. The Design of a Central Bank: 2. Designing a central bank for Europe: a cautionary tale from the early years of the federal reserve system 3. The European Central Bank: reshaping monetary politics in Europe 4. The ECB: a bank or a monetary policy rule? Part II. Transition from National Central Banks To A European Central Bank: 5. Hard-ERM, hard ECU and European Monetary Union 6. Voting

Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate

This paper reports on an attempt to apply the asset-market model empirically to the U.S. dollar Deutsinemark exchange rate. In section 2 we outline the model of short-run exchange rate determination. In section 3 we extend the theory to include government reaction functions for both monetary policy and exchange-market intervention. Section 4 presents the empirical results on monthly data since 1971. Movements in the rate are related to movements in U.S. and German stocks of money and net foreign assets. Consistent results with a reaction function for intervention are also given. The estimates look reasonable and support the asset-market model. Finally, in section 5 we outline a framework for thinking about monetary and exchange-market policy.

International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving

A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavior is examined, using data for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. Both time-series and cross-section estimates are obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offset on private saving of changes in public saving and (for developing countries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth are important determinants of private saving rates, and that interest rates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects. Increases in per capita GDP seem to increase saving at low income levels (relative to the United States) but decrease it at higher ones.

The Monetary Geography of Africa

Africa is working toward the goal of creating a common currency that would serve as a symbol of African unity. The advantages of a common currency include lower transaction costs, increased stability, and greater insulation of central banks from pressures to provide monetary financing. Disadvantages relate to asymmetries among countries, especially in their terms of trade and in the degree of fiscal discipline. More disciplined countries will not want to form a union with countries whose excessive spending puts upward pressure on the central banks monetary expansion. In The Monetary Geography of Africa , Paul Masson and Catherine Pattillo review the history of monetary arrangements on the continent and analyze the current situation and prospects for further integration. They apply lessons from both experience and theory that lead to a number of conclusions. To begin with, West Africa faces a major problem because Nigeria has both asymmetric terms of trade --it is a large oil exporter while its potential partners are oil importers --and most important, large fiscal imbalances. Secondly, a monetary union among all eastern or southern African countries seems infeasible at this stage, since a number of countries suffer from the effects of civil conflicts and drought and are far from achieving the macroeconomic stability of South Africa. Lastly, the plan by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to create a common currency seems to be generally compatible with other initiatives that could contribute to greater regional solidarity. However, economic gains would likely favor Kenya, which, unlike the other two countries, has substantial exports to its neighbors, and this may constrain the political will needed to proceed. A more promising strategy for monetary integration would be to build on existing monetary unions --the CFA franc zone in western and central Africa and the Common Monetary Area in southern Africa. Masson and Pattillo argue that the goal of a creating a single African currency is probably beyond reach. Economic realities suggest that grand new projects for African monetary unions are unlikely to be successful. More important for Africas economic well-being will be to attack the more fundamental problems of corruption and governance.

Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries

The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging. Simulations of projected demographic changes suggest that by 2025, real interest rates would be increased in all countries, and net foreign assets would be increased in the United States and decreased in the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan.