Barbara A. Butrica

Volunteer Dynamics of Older Americans

OBJECTIVES The impending retirement of boomers has spurred interest in tapping their productive energies to benefit society. This study examined volunteer transitions among older adults to understand the factors that affect volunteer dynamics. METHODS Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, the analysis examined entries into and exits from formal volunteer activities between 1996 and 2004 by adults aged 55-65 at study baseline. The study showed the duration of volunteer activities, the probability that older adults start and stop volunteering, and the factors that significantly predict volunteer transitions. RESULTS The findings reveal considerable stability among both volunteers and nonvolunteers; however, older adults are more likely to stop volunteering than to start. Volunteers who contribute intensely and for many years and who are married to volunteers are the least likely to quit. And nonvolunteers are more likely to start volunteering if they have been uninvolved for few years and their spouses volunteer. CONCLUSIONS The results point to the need to focus efforts on retaining older volunteers to maximize volunteer engagement during later years. Recruiting older adults in volunteer activities early on, ideally before they retire, could also help meet volunteer needs.

What the 2008 Stock Market Crash Means for Retirement Security

The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

The Changing Impact of Social Security on Retirement Income in the United States

As members of the baby-boom cohort—individuals born in 1946 to 1964—approach retirement age, their economic well-being at that time is of particular concern to policymakers. Baby boomers grew up in a different era than did current retirees—one accompanied by considerable changes in marriage patterns, earnings and work patterns, retirement policy, and the economy. Although these changes will undoubtedly affect baby-boomer retirees, it is difficult to know exactly how they will influence their economic well-being.

The Impact of Minority Group Status on the Projected Retirement Income of Divorced Women in the Baby Boom Cohort

SUMMARY Using projections from the Social Security Administrations Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT1), we examine the characteristics and retirement income of white non-Hispanic, black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic divorced women in the baby boom cohort. Although we find significant differences in retirement income for divorced women of different racial and ethnic groups, the characteristics associated with higher or lower retirement income are very similar. That is, being college educated, owning a home, and having pension and asset income, for example, correspond to increased retirement income for all racial and ethnic groups. However, because black and Hispanic women are less likely than white women to be college educated, to own their home, and to have pension and asset income, their retirement income tends to be lower than that of white women. We conclude the paper by briefly discussing policy options to address the retirement needs of divorced women.

Projecting Poverty Rates in 2020 for the 62 and Older Population: What Changes Can We Expect and Why?

Over the past several decades, there have been a number of economic and demographic changes that are expected to impact the economic well-being of the future aged population. This paper analyzes the factors that may be related to increased or decreased poverty among the 62- to 89-year-old population in 2020 using the Social Security Administrations Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT). We estimate that the poverty rate, when thresholds are indexed to the CPI, will decline from 7.8 percent in the early 1990s to 4.2 percent in 2020, but the rate would increase from 7.8 percent to 9.9 percent if the threshold were indexed to wages. We examine the impact of four specific trends on future poverty rates: 1) the scheduled rise in the Social Security normal retirement age, 2) the changes in marital composition, 3) the change in the relative earnings of men and women, and 4) the rise in earnings inequality. We find that the increase in the normal retirement age and changes in marital composition each explain about 25 percent of the projected increase in wage-adjusted poverty. The changes in the relative earnings of men and women did not affect the poverty rate - it only affected who was in poverty. The rise in earnings inequality had almost no effect on poverty rates largely because of the progressive Social Security payment formula. The projections of poverty rates are very sensitive to economic growth assumptions. Even with the substantial wage growth projected by the Social Security Office of the Chief Actuary, however, high school dropouts, unmarried retirees, and older retirees remain at high risk of poverty.