Cori E. Uccello

Lifetime Earnings, Social Security Benefits, and the Adequacy of Retirement Wealth Accumulation

This paper provides new evidence on the adequacy of household retirement saving. We depart from much previous research on the adequacy of saving in two key ways. First, our underlying simulation model of optimal wealth accumulation allows for precautionary saving against uncertain future earnings. Second, we employ data on lifetime earnings. Using data from the 1992 Health and Retirement Study, we find that households at the median of the empirical wealth-lifetime earnings distribution are saving as much or more as the underlying model suggests is optimal, and households at the high end of the wealth distribution are saving significantly more than the model indicates. But we also find significant undersaving among the lowest 25 percent of the population. We show that reductions in Social Security benefits could have significant deleterious effects on the adequacy of saving, especially among low-income households. We also show that, controlling for lifetime earnings, households with high current earnings tend to save far more adequately than other households.

401(K) Investment Decisions and Social Security Reform

Abstract This paper uses the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances to show that 401(k) participants with an underlying defined benefit plan are more likely to invest in equities than are participants whose 401(k) is their primary plan. This suggests that workers with a guaranteed source of retirement income are more likely to invest their other retirement assets more aggressively. Removing this guarantee might result in more conservative investment. Therefore, using current 401(k) asset allocation behavior to project income under a Social Security individual account system with reduced guaranteed benefits could overstate returns to these accounts, thus overstating their attractiveness relative to the current system.

Do Spouses Coordinate their Investment Decisions in Order to Share Risks

This paper uses the 1995 and 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances to examine 401(k) asset allocation behavior by individual and household characteristics, including spousal asset allocation behavior. The results provide evidence that, among married households in which each spouse has a 401(k) plan, spouses tend to invest their 401(k)s similarly rather than diversifying their holdings across spouses to share risks. The findings also point to the lack of diversification between 401(k) asset allocations and other household holdings. However, the results suggest that households can diversify in other ways, such as through a spouses earnings or through having an underlying defined benefit plan.

Cash Balance Plans and the Distribution of Pension Wealth

Recent pension plan conversions by numerous large employers have sparked debate about the merits of cash balance plans. This article compares pension wealth in traditional defined benefit (DB) plans and cash balance plans for a national sample of covered Americans aged 51 to 61. The simulations indicate that replacing DB plans with cash balance plans would redistribute pension wealth from those with long-term jobs to those with multiple short-term jobs and from those with substantial pension benefits to those with more limited benefits. Perhaps unexpectedly, women at midlife in 1992 with DB coverage would lose wealth in cash balance plans, but future cohorts of women are likely to fare better.