Barbara A. Muhling

Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Correction: Trophic Ecology of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnusthynnus) Larvae from the Gulf of Mexico and NW Mediterranean Spawning Grounds: A Comparative Stable Isotope Study.

The present study uses stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon (δ15Nandδ13C) as trophic indicators for Atlantic bluefin tuna larvae (BFT) (6–10 mm standard length) in the highly contrasting environmental conditions of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Balearic Sea (MED). These regions are differentiated by their temperature regime and relative productivity, with the GOM being significantly warmer and more productive. MED BFT larvae showed the highest δ15N signatures, implying an elevated trophic position above the underlying microzooplankton baseline. Ontogenetic dietary shifts were observed in the BFT larvae from the GOM and MED which indicates early life trophodynamics differences between these spawning habitats. Significant trophic differences between the GOM and MED larvae were observed in relation to δ15N signatures in favour of the MED larvae, which may have important implications in their growth during their early life stages.These low δ15N levels in the zooplankton from the GOM may be an indication of a shifting isotopic baseline in pelagic food webs due to diatrophic inputs by cyanobacteria. Lack of enrichment for δ15N in BFT larvae compared to zooplankton implies an alternative grazing pathway from the traditional food chain of phytoplankton—zooplankton—larval fish. Results provide insight for a comparative characterization of the trophic pathways variability of the two main spawning grounds for BFT larvae.

Projections of future habitat use by Atlantic bluefin tuna: mechanistic vs. correlative distribution models

mechanistic vs. correlative distribution models Barbara A. Muhling,* Richard Brill, John T. Lamkin, Mitchell A. Roffer, Sang-Ki Lee, Yanyun Liu and Frank Muller-Karger Princeton University Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Forrestal Campus/Sayre Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA James J. Howard Marine Sciences Laboratory, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Highlands, NJ, USA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Miami, FL 33149, USA Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc, West Melbourne, FL 32904, USA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Miami, FL 33149, USA University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL 33149, USA College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA *Corresponding author: tel: þ1-609-452-5322; e-mail: Barbara.Muhling@noaa.gov

Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high-emission climate change scenario

Abstract Illness caused by pathogenic strains of Vibrio bacteria incurs significant economic and health care costs in many areas around the world. In the Chesapeake Bay, the two most problematic species are V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, which cause infection both from exposure to contaminated water and consumption of contaminated seafood. We used existing Vibrio habitat models, four global climate models, and a recently developed statistical downscaling framework to project the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in the estuarine environment, and the mean concentration of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the 21st century. Results showed substantial future increases in season length and spatial habitat for V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus, while projected increase in V. cholerae habitat was less marked and more spatially heterogeneous. Our findings underscore the need for spatially variable inputs into models of climate impacts on Vibrios in estuarine environments. Overall, economic costs associated with Vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, such as incidence of illness and management measures on the shellfish industry, may increase under climate change, with implications for recreational and commercial uses of the ecosystem.