Barbara Pistoresi

Emigrant and immigrant networks in FDI

This article studies the relationship between emigration, immigration and the bilateral foreign direct investments (FDI), inward and outward, between Italy and 51 foreign countries. The results suggest that the networks of Italian emigrants abroad significantly promote both inward and outward bilateral FDI. The overall influence of immigrants is weaker. Their role is positively dependent on distance for FDI inward, only.

Migrant Networks: Empirical Implications for the Italian Bilateral Trade

A significant number of empirical studies, focusing on different countries, have found a positive link between migration and trade. This paper studies the relationship between emigration, immigration and trade using Italian data. The sample regards 51 foreign trading partners and spans from 1990 to 2005. The results suggest that networks of Italian emigrants in foreign countries boost bilateral trade. The effects of immigrants are weak on exports and negative on imports. Results do not change when cultural and institutional dissimilarities between countries are considered.

Interest Rate Spreads between Italy and Germany 1995-1997

In this paper the determinants of the long term yield spread between Italian and German government bonds are studied using daily observations for a period 1 January 1995–28 October 1997. Total spread is split into two main factors: an exchange rate factor, that is approximated by a differential on swap contracts (same maturity) and a default risk factor, that is considered as a residual. Cointegration analysis is used to test if the interest rates parity condition holds in the period considered and also the dynamic adjustment of total spread and its components is studied using impulse response analysis. The main result is that an uncovered parity condition cannot be rejected in the sample only if the relationship is augmented by the German short term interest rate. Impulse response analysis shows that this latter variable permanently affects the default risk. The main conclusion is that the reduction of the total spread in the period studied was due both to credibility gains and to favourable dynamics in the German interest rate.

Co-movements of OECD growth cycles

The study is of short-run and long-run co-movements and convergence across 21 OECD real per capita outputs on a sample period spanning 1960 to 1992 using dynamic principal components analysis and coherence analysis. We reject the hypothesis of convergence, but find evidence for long-run growth cycles closely related across countries. In particular, the G5 group exhibits the highest degree of economic integration in the long run. The group of the original members of the Community also exhibits linkages at high and medium frequencies and represents the most homogeneous area in Europe in terms of output dynamics both in the long and short run.

Central Bank Independence, Financial Instability and Politics: New Evidence for OECD and Non-OECD Countries

This paper analyses the determinants of a new index of central bank independence, recently provided by Dincer and Eichengreen (2014), using a large database of economic, political and institutional variables. Our sample includes data for 31 OECD and 49 non-OECD economies and covers the period 1998-2010. To this aim, we implement factorial and regression analysis to synthesize information and overcome limitations such as omitted variables, multicollinearity and overfitting. The results confirm the role of the IMF loans program to guide all the economies in their choice of more independent central banks. Financial instability, recession and low inflation work in the opposite direction with governments relying extensively on central bank money to finance public expenditure and central banks’ political and operational autonomy is inevitably undermined. Finally, only for non-OECD economies, the degree of central bank independence responds to various measures of strength of political institutions and party political instability.

Capital Inflows, Current Accounts and Investment Cycle in Italy: 1861-1913

By relying on a new dataset, this paper presents an econometric strategy to test the Fenoaltea’s thesis with regard to both the genesis of current account fluctuations and of the investment cycle. We perform a Granger causality test that shows that the persistent current account deficits in the years from unification from WW1 were generated by variations in capital inflows, as pointed by Fenoaltea, and not by the dynamics of the GDP, as claimed by the Bonelli-Cafagna model. Finally, this paper supports the Fenoaltea’s thesis that these capital inflows prompted a general investment cycle which included both construction and industrial investments

Migration and Bilateral Trade Flows - Evidence from Italy

A significant number of empirical studies, focusing on different countries, have found a positive link between immigration and trade. This paper studies the relationship between emigration, immigration and trade using Italian data. The sample regards 51 foreign trading partners and spans from 1990 to 2005. The results suggest that: networks of Italian emigrants in foreign countries boost trade and this pro-trade effect does not depend on institutional and cultural dissimilarities of the trading partners; immigrants reduce imports (substitution effect); finally, there are no preference effects of emigrants on exports.