Baris Salihoglu

End-To-End Models for the Analysis of Marine Ecosystems: Challenges, Issues, and Next Steps

Abstract There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of sufficient computing power. We discuss nine issues related to the development of end-to-end models. These issues relate to formulation of the zooplankton submodel, melding of multiple temporal and spatial scales, acclimation and adaptation, behavioral movement, software and technology, model coupling, skill assessment, and interdisciplinary challenges. We urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode until we know more about their performance. End-to-end models will challenge the available data and our ability to analyze and interpret complicated models that generate complex behavior. End-to-end modeling is in its early developmental stages and thus presents an opportunity to establish an open-access, community-based approach supported by a suite of true interdisciplinary efforts.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

The significance of the episodic nature of atmospheric deposition to Low Nutrient Low Chlorophyll regions

In the vast Low Nutrient Low-Chlorophyll (LNLC) Ocean, the vertical nutrient supply from the subsurface to the sunlit surface waters is low, and atmospheric contribution of nutrients may be one order of magnitude greater over short timescales. The short turnover time of atmospheric Fe and N supply (<1 month for nitrate) further supports deposition being an important source of nutrients in LNLC regions. Yet, the extent to which atmospheric inputs are impacting biological activity and modifying the carbon balance in oligotrophic environments has not been constrained. Here, we quantify and compare the biogeochemical impacts of atmospheric deposition in LNLC regions using both a compilation of experimental data and model outputs. A metadata-analysis of recently conducted field and laboratory bioassay experiments reveals complex responses, and the overall impact is not a simple “fertilization effect of increasing phytoplankton biomass” as observed in HNLC regions. Although phytoplankton growth may be enhanced, increases in bacterial activity and respiration result in weakening of biological carbon sequestration. The application of models using climatological or time-averaged non-synoptic deposition rates produced responses that were generally much lower than observed in the bioassay experiments. We demonstrate that experimental data and model outputs show better agreement on short timescale (days to weeks) when strong synoptic pulse of aerosols deposition, similar in magnitude to those observed in the field and introduced in bioassay experiments, is superimposed over the mean atmospheric deposition fields. These results suggest that atmospheric impacts in LNLC regions have been underestimated by models, at least at daily to weekly timescales, as they typically overlook large synoptic variations in atmospheric deposition and associated nutrient and particle inputs. Inclusion of the large synoptic variability of atmospheric input, and improved representation and parameterization of key processes that respond to atmospheric deposition, is required to better constrain impacts in ocean biogeochemical models. This is critical for understanding and prediction of current and future functioning of LNLC regions and their contribution to the global carbon cycle.

Simulations of phytoplankton species and carbon production in the equatorial Pacific Ocean 1. Model configuration and ecosystem dynamics

The primary objective of this research is to investigate phytoplankton community response to variations in physical forcing and biological processes in the Cold Tongue region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean at 0N, 140W. This research objective was addressed using a one-dimensional multicomponent lower trophic level ecosystem model that includes detailed algal physiology, such as spectrally-dependent photosynthetic processes and iron limitation on algal growth. The ecosystem model is forced by a one-year (1992) time series of spectrally-dependent light, temperature, and water column mixing obtained from a Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TAO) Array mooring. Autotrophic growth is represented by five algal groups, which have light and nutrient utilization characteristics of low-light adaptedProchlorococcus, high-light adaptedProchlorococcus,Synechococcus, autotrophic eukaryotes, and large diatoms. The simulated distributions and rates are validated using observations from the 1992 U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Equatorial Pacific cruises. The modeldata comparisons show that the simulations successfully reproduce the temporal distribution of each algal group and that multiple algal groups are needed to fully resolve the variations observed for phytoplankton communities in the equatorial Pacific. The 1992 simulations show seasonal variations in algal species composition superimposed on shorter time scale variations (e.g., 8–20 days) that arise from changes in the upwelling/downwelling environmental structure. The simulated time evolution of the algal groups shows that eukaryotes are the most abundant group, being responsible for half of the annual biomass and 69% of the annual primary production and organic carbon export.

Simulation of eddy-driven phytoplankton production in the Black Sea

A three dimensional, three-layer biological model is used to assess impact of eddy-dominated horizontal circulation on the spatial and temporal variations of plankton biomass in the Black Sea. Simulations are shown to exhibit patchy distributions of phytoplankton biomass as inferred from satellite images, and their intensities agree reasonably well with observations. Overall performance of the three layer model points to its potential capability as a practical alternative tool to more complex and computationally expensive multi-level models, without sacrificing much from the basics of the ecosystem dynamics.

Simulations of Phytoplankton Species and Carbon Production in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean 2. Effects of Physical and Biogeochemical Processes

A one-dimensional multi-component lower trophic level ecosystem model that includes detailed algal physiology is used to investigate the response of phytoplankton community and carbon production and export to variations in physical and biochemical processes in the Cold Tongue region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean at 0N, 140W. Results show that high-frequency variability in vertical advection and temperature is an important mechanism driving the carbon export. Filtering out low frequency physical forcing results in a 30% increase in primary production and dominance of high-light adapted Prochlorococcus and autotrophic eukaryotes. Sensitivity studies show that iron availability is the primary control on carbon export and production; whereas, algal biomass concentration is largely regulated by zooplankton grazing. Recycled iron is an important component of the ecosystem dynamics because sustained growth of algal groups depends on remineralized iron which accounts for 40% of the annual primary production in the Cold Tongue region. Sensitivity studies show that although all algal groups have a considerable effect on simulated phytoplankton carbon biomass, not all have a strong effect on primary production and carbon export. Thus, these sensitivity studies indicate that it may not be necessary to represent a broad spectrum of algal groups in carbon cycle models, because a few key groups appear to have a large influence on primary production and export variability. Combining the low-light adapted Prochlorococcus, high-light adapted Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus groups as a single group and using a three algal group model may be sufficient to simulate primary production and export variability in the tropical Pacific waters. The results from this modeling study suggest that the net effect of increased stratification and temperature conditions is a decrease in carbon export in the Cold Tongue region and a shift in the phytoplankton community towards smaller algal forms (e.g., Prochlorococcus spp. and Synechecoccus). Increased stratification can result in decreased iron concentration and reduced vertical velocities, both of which contribute to decreased carbon export. Also, stratified conditions enhance the remineralization rate of nutrients (e.g., iron), which enhances carbon production. Thus, inclusion of iron dynamics in climate models may be needed to fully represent the effect of climate variability on equatorial Pacific ecosystems. 1. Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, 23529, U.S.A. 2. Present address: Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Erdemli, Turkey. 3. Corresponding author. email: baris@ims.metu.edu.tr

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

Here we present a case study towards producing quantitative scientific advice on the application of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in the Black Sea. We provide estimates of fishing mortality rates at levels which will lead to rebuilding and maintaining stocks above biomass levels that could produce maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under the IPCC RCP4.5 future climate scenario together with the business as usual (BAU) river discharge scenario. In this study, we have implemented a coupled, basin-scale circulation-biogeochemical model and used its output to feed a food web model to test near-future changes that may be observed in the Black Sea ecosystem under the influence of contemporary fisheries exploitation conditions. In order to test model response to changes in climate and related drivers, the future climate scenario (2015-2020) simulation was compared to the present day (2000-2014) simulation. Likewise, to test the sensitivity of the higher trophic level food web model to changes in fishing pressure, a future estimate of fishing pressure was projected based on its respective contemporary value and applied to each fish stock. Using these models, fishing mortality rates that could produce the maximum sustainable yield (FMSY) in future years 2015-2020 and ensure the long-term recovery of the predatory fish stocks of the Black Sea are predicted. Future projections suggest that all fish stock will decrease in all the regions of the Black Sea except for sprat. Anchovy is expected to show the highest decrease in biomass. Analyses on FMSY estimates show that a significant reduction in fisheries exploitation is required for the sustainable management of the Black Sea ecosystems and the related services. This study, for the first time, presents future stock size, FMSY and MSY estimates for the Black Sea for 11 fish species. FMSY values are generally lower than estimates of the scientific, technical and economic committee for fisheries (STECF), mainly because of the explicit food web interactions that the modeling system allows to be considered.