Bettina A. Fach

Krill transport in the Scotia Sea and environs

Historical observations of the large-scale flow and frontal structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Scotia Sea region were combined with the wind-induced surface Ekman transport to produce a composite flow field. This was usedwith a Lagrangianmodel to investigate transport ofAntarctic krill. Particle displacements from known krill spawning areas that result from surface Ekman drift, a composite large-scale flow, and the combination of the two were calculated. Surface Ekman drift alone only transports particles a few kilometres over the 150-day krill larval development time. The large-scale composite flow moves particles several hundreds of kilometres over the same time, suggesting this is the primary transport mechanism. An important contribution of the surface Ekman drift on particles released along the continental shelf break west of the Antarctic Peninsula is moving them north-northeast into the high-speed core of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front, which thentransports the particles to South Georgiain about 140-1 60 days. Similar particle displacement calculations using surface flow fields obtained from the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model do not show overall transport from the Antarctic Peninsula to South Georgia due to the inaccurate position of the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front in the simulated circulation fields. The particle transit times obtained with the composite large-scale flow field are consistent with regional abundances of larval krill developmental stages collected in the Scotia Sea. These results strongly suggest that krill populations west of the Antarctic Peninsula provide the source for the krill populations found around South Georgia.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

Testing early life connectivity using otolith chemistry and particle-tracking simulations

We measured the otolith chemistry of adult Scotia Sea icefish (Chaenocephalus aceratus), a species with a long pelagic larval phase, along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and compared the chemistry with simulated particle transport using a circulation model. Material laid down in otolith nuclei during early life showed (i) strong heterogeneity between the Antarctic Peninsula and South Georgia consistent with a population boundary, (ii) evidence of finer-scale het- erogeneity between sampling areas on the Antarctic Peninsula, and (iii) similarity between the eastern and northern shelves of South Georgia, indicating a single, self-recruiting population there. Consistent with the otolith chemistry, simulations of the large-scale circulation predicted that particles released at depths of 100-300 m on the Antarctic Peninsula shelf during spring, corresponding to hatching of icefish larvae from benthic nests, are transported in the southern ACC, missing South Georgia but following trajectories along the southern Scotia Ridge instead. These results suggest that the timing of release and position of early life stages in the water column substantially influence the direction and extent of connectivity. Used in complement, the two techniques promise an innovative approach for generating and testing predictions to resolve early dispersal and connectivity of populations related to the physical circulation of oceanic systems.

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

Here we present a case study towards producing quantitative scientific advice on the application of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in the Black Sea. We provide estimates of fishing mortality rates at levels which will lead to rebuilding and maintaining stocks above biomass levels that could produce maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under the IPCC RCP4.5 future climate scenario together with the business as usual (BAU) river discharge scenario. In this study, we have implemented a coupled, basin-scale circulation-biogeochemical model and used its output to feed a food web model to test near-future changes that may be observed in the Black Sea ecosystem under the influence of contemporary fisheries exploitation conditions. In order to test model response to changes in climate and related drivers, the future climate scenario (2015-2020) simulation was compared to the present day (2000-2014) simulation. Likewise, to test the sensitivity of the higher trophic level food web model to changes in fishing pressure, a future estimate of fishing pressure was projected based on its respective contemporary value and applied to each fish stock. Using these models, fishing mortality rates that could produce the maximum sustainable yield (FMSY) in future years 2015-2020 and ensure the long-term recovery of the predatory fish stocks of the Black Sea are predicted. Future projections suggest that all fish stock will decrease in all the regions of the Black Sea except for sprat. Anchovy is expected to show the highest decrease in biomass. Analyses on FMSY estimates show that a significant reduction in fisheries exploitation is required for the sustainable management of the Black Sea ecosystems and the related services. This study, for the first time, presents future stock size, FMSY and MSY estimates for the Black Sea for 11 fish species. FMSY values are generally lower than estimates of the scientific, technical and economic committee for fisheries (STECF), mainly because of the explicit food web interactions that the modeling system allows to be considered.

Understanding the Impact of Environmental Variability on Anchovy Overwintering Migration in the Black Sea and its Implications for the Fishing Industry

Black Sea anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) undertake extensive overwintering migrations every fall from nursery grounds to warmer overwintering areas located on the south-eastern coast of the Black Sea. During migration and particularly upon arrival at the Anatolian coast, they support an important fishery and valuable source of income for regional communities. Black Sea anchovy have undergone significant stock fluctuations partly related to climatic conditions; for example, migrating anchovy schools arrived late or failed to arrive at the Anatolian coast when fall temperatures increased. This study invokes a Lagrangian modeling approach applied to satellite derived circulation and temperature data as a first attempt to model anchovy migration dynamics in the Black Sea. This modeling approach takes the influence of the physical environment into account, while the quality of overwintering grounds, schooling and homing behavior is neglected. The model is used to investigate the possible influence of interannual and seasonal variability of temperature and surface currents, as well as the influence of migration behavior on the success of anchovy overwintering migration for both the Black Sea and Azov Sea anchovy. The results of the present work show the possibility that overwintering anchovy fished along the southeastern Anatolian coast may not exclusively originate from the northwestern shelf, but mainly from the eastern Black Sea basin. Migration pathways are identified for both Black Sea and Azov Sea anchovy, which are of importance for the national fisheries efforts of riparian countries. Modeling results are in agreement with general patterns of anchovy migration given in the literature indicating that the physical environment may be a major factor in shaping general migration patterns. Simulation results are used to hypothesize about alternatives to previously determined migration routes and provide potential reasons that explain the inability of the Bulgarian anchovy fishery to recover. Results show that the intensity and timing of autumnal cooling, coupled with current strength, can be of significant importance in determining annual and seasonal variability of migration success. Considering the need for fisheries management to account for the variability in fishable overwintering anchovy stocks a modeling approach as developed in the current study may provide such tool.