Barry B. Hughes

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model

OBJECTIVE To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. METHODS The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. FINDINGS The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate-health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. CONCLUSION Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements.

Measuring global values : the ranking of 162 countries

Thank you very much for reading measuring global values the ranking of 162 countries. Maybe you have knowledge that, people have search hundreds times for their favorite novels like this measuring global values the ranking of 162 countries, but end up in infectious downloads. Rather than enjoying a good book with a cup of coffee in the afternoon, instead they juggled with some harmful bugs inside their laptop.

The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project

Since 1980, the International Futures (IFs) project has produced three generations of the world model with that name. The IFs model facilitates analysis of global demographic, economic, energy, agricultural, environmental, and sociopolitical systems into or through the 21st century. The most recent release within the third generation provides detail on more than 200 variables across as many as 20 different countries and regions. IFs has increasingly evolved from a global model to a global modeling system that allows analysis of data and analytical relationships across 162 countries. The system runs under Microsoft Windows with a menu-driven structure for simplified scenario analysis. IFs is widely available for educational use and policy analysis. The primary focal points of analysis with IFs are (a) elements of the possible transition toward sustainability in the 21st century, and (b) aspects of sociopolitical change within countries and in the global system.

Global Social Transformation: The Sweet Spot, the Steady Slog, and the Systemic Shift*

This paper examines the critical relationship between global economic and social changes. It also demonstrates the importance of distinguishing two aspects of social development: improvement of individual life conditions and restructuring in social organization since the nature of the relationships between economic advance and these two aspects of social development contrast sharply. Overall cross-sectional analysis shows a dynamic relationship between economic and social development. However time-comparative cross-sections and longitudinal analysis both reinforce the conclusion that social condition is a function of much more than economic condition. Data are presented that allow three conclusions of importance: 1) that there is a “sweet spot” in the development process; 2) that of social organizational components change is a “steady slog” rather than a relatively predictable movement; and 3) that there are also “systematic shifts” occurring in the social condition of both types that are clearly unrelated to the economic condition.

World Models: The Bases of Difference

Differences in global or world models, including dramatic variation in forecasts they produce, have drawn considerable attention. Most analyses in search of the bases for differences focus on general structural characteristics of the models. This article seeks the bases at three interrelated levels: general world view, specific theoretical and structural components, and data and parameter choices. After analysis of various models in these terms, the article describes a world model with sufficient structural and data/parameter flexibility that characteristics of other models can be introduced. Doing so produces behavior which emulates the other models and thereby supports the identification of the characteristics key to behavioral differences.

Transaction Data and Analysis: In Search of Concepts

The article focuses on two problems in the measurement of integration with transaction data. The first is the analysis procedure by which the transaction data are summarized. Different procedures affect the data in such different ways that they can actually lead to contradictory conclusions about the progress of integration. This article spells out some of the major differences in the models of analysis. The second problem is validity of transaction data as measures of integration. There are numerous different conceptualizations of integration, some centering on the development of central institutions, others on the existence of favorable attitudes among people, and still others on the existence of a highly co-operative relationship among states. It is not clear that transaction data are the most appropriate measure of any of these concepts.

Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching The 'High-Hanging' Fruit by 2030

As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication.

Choices in the face of uncertainty: the international futures (IFs) model

Abstract The International Futures (IFs) modeling project has roots in both the world modeling projects of the 1970s (including the early Club of Rome models) and the GLOBUS modeling project of the 1980s. It has, however, added extensive capabilities for helping students and analysts think about choices in the face of uncertainty. The third edition of the International futures book and computer simulation have extended the analysis horizon and enhanced analysis potential, with particular focus in two areas: (1) the possible transition towards sustainability in the twenty-first century and (2) sociopolitical change within countries and in the global system. IFs is evolving from a global model to a ‘global modeling system’ that allows analysis of data and analytical relationships across a country-level database. This article reviews the evolution of IFs and the current model. It concludes by discussing challenging issues in the contemporary world that may be explored by students of the future using the IFs model.

The Rockets' Red Glare: When America Goes to War--The Presidents and the People

Spend your time even for only few minutes to read a book. Reading a book will never reduce and waste your time to be useless. Reading, for some people become a need that is to do every day such as spending time for eating. Now, what about you? Do you like to read a book? Now, we will show you a new book enPDFd the rockets red glare when america goes to war the presidents and the people that can be a new way to explore the knowledge. When reading this book, you can get one thing to always remember in every reading time, even step by step.