Jonathan D. Moyer

Key to the Horn: Ethiopia's Prospects to 2030

Few African countries have developed as rapidly as Ethiopia over the past 25 years and that economic growth has also been paired with a sizeable expansion of service delivery. Nonetheless, Ethiopians continue to suffer from some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any country in Africa – and indeed the world. This policy brief summarises the results from a more comprehensive study that explores options for the Government of Ethiopia and its development partners to advance human development and economic growth between now and 2030.

Cost analysis of global road traffic death prevention: Forecasts to 2050

Road traffic safety initiatives are gaining momentum worldwide as more governments and international organizations recognize the implications of traffic accidents on economic and human development. In 2015, as part of its Sustainable Development Goals, the United Nations Development Programme set a global target (3.6) to halve the number of traffic deaths and injuries by 2020. This article uses the International Futures integrated forecasting system to explore the plausibility of achieving that goal and the potential forward linkages of such an intervention. We find that halving annual deaths caused by road traffic accidents is likely to be overly ambitious, and examine more reasonable road traffic death-rate targets using an approach derived from road traffic death rates relative to income level.

Strengthening governance globally: Forecasting the next 50 years: Patterns of potential human progress

Strengthening Governance Globally is the fifth volume in the series Patterns of Potential Human Progress. Each volume considers one key aspect of how development unfolds globally and how better to move it in desired directions. This volume identifies the provision of security, the building of government capacity, and the broadening of inclusion of governance on which high-income countries have traditionally made long historical transitions. In contrast, many developing countries today struggle with all three governance transition dimensions simultaneously. Strengthening Governance Globally uses the growing empirical database on governance variables to understand historical change.