Barry D. McNutt

CAFE STANDARDS - IS A CHANGE IN FORM NEEDED

Automobile fuel economy standards have been controversial since they were first considered over a decade ago. The controversy has increased recently as some auto manufacturers have struggled to meet the standards. This paper addresses the question of whether a change in the form of the standard is needed to reduce the perceived problems and make the program more effective. The paper argues that the main purpose of the standards is to increase the technical level of fuel economy in all vehicles while leaving the mix of vehicle sizes largely to be determined by the market.

Is There a Government Role in Methanol Market Development

Given that a transportation fuel transition away from oil will occur, this paper explores fuel selection and government involvement. Arguments are made for choosing a petroleum replacement now, establishing methanol as the fuel of choice, planning for the transition and involving government in market readiness. Mandatory introduction of methanol compatible fuel vehicles and a national fuel distribution system, so that the marketplace can accommodate methanol when it is economically viable, is proposed. The cost of this approach is comparable to that of other energy activities designed to deal with transportations oil dependence.

Comparison of fuel economy results from EPA tests and actual in-use experience, 1974--1977 model year cars

In response to growing concern over the validity of the EPA fuel economy numbers, the Department of Energy undertook a study of actual on-road fuel economy as it compares to the EPA numbers. The report given covers the development of the data base for that study, the analysis techniques used for the initial phases of the work, and the preliminary results of that analysis. Data on over 5000 in-use vehicles were collected for model years 1974 to 1977. Data were obtained from a number of private and government groups for vehicles in fleet and typical consumer use, from on-road tests, and from in-use dynamometer tests. Comparisons using linear regressions were made between these mpg values and the EPA certification results for the same models. The results describe these differences as a function of vehicle mpg and model year. Other more specific comparisons are also made. An analysis of in-use fuel economy ranking, compared to the ranking by the EPA mpg numbers, is presented. (ERA citation 03:040848)

DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM OF COMPARABLE CAR CLASSES FOR FUEL ECONOMY LABELING

Weight, wheelbase, price, fuel economy, performance, exterior size, interior passenger space, and cargo (trunk) volume were examined as possible parameters for establishing car classes. To facilitate data handling, computer programs were developed to rank the representative sample. A system with five classes for cars and three classes for station wagons based on the interior volume index relates well to vehicle utility and will be applicable to future vehicles. The use of the volume measurements as a tool for anlayzing vehicle design is briefly discussed.

United States automobile fuel economy policies and consumption effects

Abstract The United States automobile fuel economy program began in 1974 with the publication of a Gas Mileage Guide and the labeling of new cars with their fuel economy ratings. Since that time the program has been modified and a number of new elements added. These include new car and light truck fuel economy standards, a national highway speed limit, government sponsored research and development and a new vehicle tax based on fuel efficiency. This has occurred in parallel with rising fuel prices and increasingly stringent auto safety and emission standards. An integral part of the program has been economic and technical analysis carried out by several government departments to monitor trends and determine the effectiveness of the various program elements. Based on this analysis it has been shown that significant improvements in fuel economy (more than 60% for new cars and 23% for all cars on the road between 1974 and 1980) and major reductions in fuel consumption (800,000 b/d, 127,000 m 3 /d or about 12% from 1978 to 1980) have resulted from the fuel economy improvement program and reductions in driving. The automobile fuel economy program in the future will be oriented more towards market response to rising fuel prices and less government involvement. However, continuing analysis will be required to determine if this approach is successful in achieving economically efficient improvements in automobile fuel economy.

PATTERNS OF VEHICLE MISFUELING IN 1981 AND 1982: WHERE, WHEN, WHAT VEHICLES, AND HOW OFTEN?

Based on nationwide gasoline diary records of 5,000 families, an analysis was conducted of automobile misfueling (use of leaded gasoline in a vehicle designed for unleaded gasoline) trends in 1981 and 1982. The gasoline diary data base and the data handling and analysis techniques are described. Overall trends in vehicle misfueling are given, focusing on 1982 data, followed by more detailed information on the location and frequency of misfueling. Conclusions are presented indicating that while variations exist in misfueling by region and vehicle age, overall misfueling is a widespread problem, because catalyst-equipped cars are increasing in number and age.

FACTORS INFLUENCING AUTOMOTIVE FUEL DEMAND

Data were collected on alternative estimates of factors influencing fuel demand. These factors include: new vehicle registrations, vehicle miles of travel, vehicle scrappage and fuel economy. A methodology was then applied to assess the sensitivity of fuel demand to variations of each individual factor (within the range of the available data sources). A Base Case projection of fuel demand by vehicle type and fuel type is presented in detail. In addition, the impacts of two realistic alternative cases representing increased conservation efforts and increased fuel consumption are also analyzed.

PASSENGER CAR CLASSIFICATION USING INTERIOR VOLUME--A 1978 UP-DATE

In November 1976, the Environmental Protection Agency promulgated rules covering the classification of automobiles for the purpose of fuel economy labeling and the Gas Mileage Guide. Since that time a number of changes have been made in the classification system and the interior volume measurements on which that system is based. This paper reports on the reasons for those changes and their impact on the classification of model year 1978 vehicles. The paper also discusses various trends in vehicle design as measured by interior and exterior volume, weight and fuel economy. Trends in various design efficiency factors are examined for model years 1976-1978 and a data base is presented for future analysis.