Philip D. Patterson

Oil Independence: Achievable National Goal or Empty Slogan?

Oil independence has been a goal of U.S. energy policy for the past 30 years, yet the term has never been rigorously defined. A rigorous, measurable definition is proposed: to reduce the costs of oil dependence to less than 1% of gross domestic product in the next 20 to 25 years, with 95% probability. A simulation model incorporating the possibility of oil supply disruptions and other sources of uncertainty is used to test whether two alternative energy policy strategies—business as usual (BAU) and an interpretation of the strategy proposed by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP)—can achieve oil independence for the United States. BAU does not produce oil independence. The augmented NCEP strategy comes close to achieving oil independence for the U.S. economy within the next 20 to 25 years, but more effort is needed to achieve full independence. The success of the strategy appears to be robust regardless of how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries responds to it. Expected annual savings are estimated to exceed

CAFE STANDARDS - IS A CHANGE IN FORM NEEDED

250 billion per year by 2030.

Future World Oil Prices and the Potential for New Transportation Fuels

Automobile fuel economy standards have been controversial since they were first considered over a decade ago. The controversy has increased recently as some auto manufacturers have struggled to meet the standards. This paper addresses the question of whether a change in the form of the standard is needed to reduce the perceived problems and make the program more effective. The paper argues that the main purpose of the standards is to increase the technical level of fuel economy in all vehicles while leaving the mix of vehicle sizes largely to be determined by the market.

Importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency in hybrid electric vehicle market success

World petroleum demand is projected to continue increasing after the world enters the 21st century. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts low world oil prices for the indefinite future despite an expected 54 percent rise in consumption by the year 2020. In its reference case, EIA also assumes an 80 percent increase in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production over the same time period. In contrast to this, a popular world oil market projection model demonstrates that OPEC could increase its production profitability significantly by substantially slowing the rate of its expanded production. However, OPEC’s potential market control also is influenced by the prospective availability of fuels produced from natural gas, especially remote unconventional natural gas resources. The unconventional natural gas resource is potentially enormous compared with all other fossil fuels combined. Considerations of energy security, greenhouse gas curtailment, emissions control, and cost will act to dictate widespread production and use of these unconventional reserves. Estimates are provided for the amount of alternatives that might be available at various oil prices. Because of cost considerations, much of this added production is likely to occur outside the United States.

DYNAMICS OF LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY--1978-1984

Toyota’s introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named “Prius” in Japan and Honda’s proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs versus benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. Incremental costs and fuel savings are projected for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3-s 0 to 60 mph acceleration, Z60 time) and a higher-performance “mild” hybrid vehicle (11-s Z60 time). Each HEV is compared with a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11-s Z60 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is

What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary

3,200–

LIGHT-DUTY DIESELS: CONSUMER PERSPECTIVES AND U.S. ENERGY SUPPLY ISSUES

3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship among fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency also is evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 20 percent and 8 percent. The analysis, with its current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVs would be quite limited.

The Emergence of Light Trucks: Impact on Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy

Since 1978 new vehicle fuel economy has changed from year to year quite differently for automobiles and light trucks. Automobiles experienced three years in which MPG gains were quite large, whereas light trucks experienced only one such year. The MPG changes and causes for these changes are analyzed for autos and light trucks. The contribution of consumer actions are analyzed. The consumer actions collectively accounted for only 28 percent of the 6.7 MPG gain for automobiles, for 63 percent of the 2.7 MPG gain for light trucks during the 1978-1984 period. Shifts across size classes accounted for only 7.8 percent of all auto MPG gains and for 21.9 percent of all light truck MPG gains.

The 1990 GM Sunrayce USA: a summary

The potential peaking of world conventional oil production and the possible imperative to reduce carbon emissions will put great pressure on vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles, on vehicle buyers to seek them out in the marketplace, and on energy suppliers to develop new fuels and delivery systems. Four cases for stabilizing or reducing light vehicle fuel use, oil use, and/or carbon emissions over the next 50 years are presented. Case 1--Improve mpg so that the fuel use in 2020 is stabilized for the next 30 years. Case 2--Improve mpg so that by 2030 the fuel use is reduced to the 2000 level and is reduced further in subsequent years. Case 3--Case 1 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. Case 4--Case 2 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. The mpg targets for new cars and light trucks require that significant advances be made in developing cost-effective and very efficient vehicle technologies. With the use of alternative fuels that are low in carbon, oil use and carbon emissions can be reduced even further.

Reasons for changes in MPG Estimates, Model Year 1978 to the Present

An assessment of the potential for diesel engine light-duty vehicles to reduce petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is presented. Historical diesel vehicle sales behavior is presented and analyzed. Future market penetration and resultant petroleum consumption and emission reductions for advanced diesel engines are projected. Results of a survey of new vehicle buyer attitudes toward improved diesel engines are presented and analyzed. Effects of increased diesel market share on diesel fuel supply and price are estimated. Overall, the outlook for diesels in light vehicles is somewhat promising if pollution issues and consumer concerns about the earlier diesels can be addressed.