Bart Los

Annual Report 2008

Ukupan broj prijavljenih vlasnika i uzgajivaca u Sredisnjem registru kopitara Republike Hrvatske kojeg vodi Hrvatski centar za konjogojstvo-Državna ergela Lipik, od njegovog utemeljenja do 31.12.2008. godine iznosi 5.894. Od ukupnog broja kroz godine prijavljenih uzgajivaca/vlasnika u 2008. godini aktivno je 3.654 odnosno 62% uzgajivaca/vlasnika konja

An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: The Case of Global Automotive Production

This article provides guidance to prudent use of the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) in analyses of international trade. The WIOD contains annual time-series of world input–output tables and factor requirements covering the period from 1995 to 2011. Underlying concepts, construction methods and data sources are introduced, pointing out particular strengths and weaknesses. We illustrate its usefulness by analyzing the geographical and factorial distribution of value added in global automotive production and show increasing fragmentation, both within and across regions. Possible improvements and extensions to the data are discussed.

Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity

Structural decomposition techniques are widely used to break down the growth in some variable into the changes in its determinants. In this paper, we discuss the problems caused by the existence of a multitude of equivalent decomposition forms which are used to measure the contribution of a specific determinant. Although it is well known that structural decompositions are not unique, the extent of the problem and its consequences seem to have been largely neglected. In an empirical analysis for The Netherlands between 1986 and 1992, results are calculated for 24 equivalent decomposition forms. The outcomes exhibit a large degree of variability across the different forms. We also examine the two approaches that have been used predominantly in the literature. The average of the two so-called polar decompositions appears to be remarkably close to the average of the full set of 24 decompositions. The approximate decomposition with mid-point weights appears to be almost exact. Although this last alternative might seem a solution to the problem of the marked sensitivity, in fact, it only conceals the problem.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF WORLD INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES IN THE WIOD PROJECT

This article describes the construction of the World Input–Output Tables (WIOTs) that constitute the core of the World Input–Output Database. WIOTs are available for the period 1995–2009 and give the values of transactions among 35 industries in 40 countries plus the ‘Rest of the World’ and from these industries to households, governments and users of capital goods in the same set of countries. The article describes how information from the National Accounts, Supply and Use Tables and International Trade Statistics have been harmonized, reconciled and used for estimation procedures to arrive at a consistent time series of WIOTs.

Fragmentation, incomes, and jobs : an analysis of European competitiveness

Increasing fragmentation of production across borders is changing the nature of international competition. As a result, conventional indicators of competitiveness based on gross exports are becoming less informative and new measures are needed. This paper proposes an ex-post accounting framework of the value added and workers that are directly and indirectly related to the production of final manufacturing goods. The framework focuses on manufactures global value chain income and manufactures global value chain jobs. The paper outlines these concepts and provides trends in European countries based on a recent multi-sector, input-output model of the world economy. The analysis finds that since 1995, revealed comparative advantage of the European Union 27 is shifting to activities related to the production of nonelectrical machinery and transport equipment. The workers involved in manufactures global value chains are increasingly in services, rather than manufacturing industries. The analysis also finds a strong shift toward activities carried out by high-skilled workers, highlighting the uneven distributional effects of fragmentation. The results show that a global value chain perspective is needed to inform the policy debates on competitiveness.

Related Variety, Unrelated Variety and Technological Breakthroughs: An analysis of US State-Level Patenting

Castaldi C., Frenken K. and Los B. Related variety, unrelated variety and technological breakthroughs: an analysis of US state-level patenting, Regional Studies. This paper investigates how variety affects the innovation output of a region. Borrowing arguments from theories of recombinant innovation, it is expected that related variety will enhance innovation as related technologies are more easily recombined into a new technology. However, it is also expected that unrelated variety enhances technological breakthroughs, since radical innovation often stems from connecting previously unrelated technologies opening up whole new functionalities and applications. Using patent data for US states in the period 1977–99 and associated citation data, evidence is found for both hypotheses. This study thus sheds a new and critical light on the related variety hypothesis in economic geography.

Structural decomposition analyses with dependent determinants

Structural decomposition techniques are used to break down the changes in one variable into the changes in its determinants. Typically, these determinants are assumed to be independent. Using the decomposition of value added growth as a prototype example, this paper examines the phenomenon that several of the determinants are not independent. The determinants are termed fully dependent if changes in one determinant cannot occur without corresponding changes in another determinant. In most empirical cases, full dependence exists between groups of determinants, not between separate determinants. It is indicated that dependencies may cause a bias in the results of decomposition analyses. An alternative to overcome this problem is proposed and the findings are illustrated by an empirical study for The Netherlands 1972-1986.

Labor Productivity in Western Europe 1975-1985: An Intercountry, Interindustry Analysis

Using intercountry input-output tables and disaggregated employment data, we decompose labor productivity growth between 1975 and 1985 in six Western European countries into partial effects of six determinants including changing international trade and changing final demand. To this end, new multiplicative decomposition formulas are derived and implemented. In a similar way, we study labor productivity changes in vertically integrated industries. The effects of structural change on convergence are investigated also. We see this paper as an attempt to merge the convergence literature with earlier single-country productivity-change decompositions using input-output data.

INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS: THE NEXT 25 YEARS

This year marks the 25th anniversary of the International Input–Output Association and the 25th volume of Economic Systems Research. To celebrate this anniversary, a group of eight experts provide their views on the future of input–output. Looking forward, they foresee progress in terms of data collections, methods, theory testing, and focus and scope.

Externalities of R&D expenditures

Innovation is generally recognized as a major source of economic growth. R&D investments explicitly aim at generating innovations and creating knowledge. Since knowledge has certain public good properties, positive externalities are likely to exist. In this paper, we extend well-known concepts from the input-output literature (backward multipliers) to indicate at which commodities stimuli should be targeted to enhance R&D and its positive externalities in the economy as a whole. Next, we argue that there may also be negative externalities of R&D, due to increased prices. This issue can be studied by means of forward multipliers. Both concepts are applied to the United States, 1977-90.