Baruch Meerson

Extinction of metastable stochastic populations.

We investigate the phenomenon of extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0 . In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is a dissipative variant of WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasistationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasistationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multistep processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B.

WEAK SELECTION AND STABILITY OF LOCALIZED DISTRIBUTIONS IN OSTWALD RIPENING

We support and generalize a weak selection rule predicted recently for the self-similar asymptotics of the distribution function (DF) in the zero-volume-fraction limit of Ostwald ripening (OR). An asymptotic perturbation theory is developed that, when combined with an exact invariance property of the system, yields the selection rule in terms of the initial condition, predicts a power-law convergence towards the selected self-similar DF, and agrees well with our numerical simulations for the interface- and diffusion-controlled OR.

How Colored Environmental Noise Affects Population Extinction

Environmental noise can cause an exponential reduction in the mean time to extinction (MTE) of an isolated population. We study this effect on an example of a stochastic birth-death process with rates modulated by a colored Gaussian noise. A path integral formulation yields a transparent way of evaluating the MTE and finding the optimal realization of the environmental noise that determines the most probable path to extinction. The population-size dependence of the MTE changes from exponential in the absence of the environmental noise to a power law for a short-correlated noise and to no dependence for long-correlated noise. We also establish the validity domains of the limits of white noise and adiabatic noise.

Spectral theory of metastability and extinction in birth-death systems.

We suggest a general spectral method for calculating the statistics of multistep birth-death processes and chemical reactions of the type mA-->nA (m and n are positive integers) which possess an absorbing state. The method employs the generating function formalism in conjunction with the Sturm-Liouville theory of linear differential operators. It yields accurate results for the extinction statistics and for the quasistationary probability distribution, including large deviations, of the metastable state. The power of the method is demonstrated on the example of binary annihilation and triple branching 2A--> ø, A-->3A, representative of the rather general class of dissociation-recombination reactions.

Phase ordering with a global conservation law: Ostwald ripening and coalescence

Globally conserved phase ordering dynamics is investigated in systems with short range correlations at t=0. A Ginzburg-Landau equation with a global conservation law is employed as the phase field model. The conditions are found under which the sharp-interface limit of this equation is reducible to the area-preserving motion by curvature. Numerical simulations show that, for both critical and off-critical quench, the equal-time pair correlation function exhibits dynamic scaling, and the characteristic coarsening length obeys l(t) approximately t(1/2). For the critical quench, our results are in excellent agreement with earlier results. For off-critical quench (Ostwald ripening) we investigate the dynamics of the size distribution function of the minority phase domains. The simulations show that, at large times, this distribution function has a self-similar form with growth exponent 1/2. The scaled distribution, however, strongly differs from the classical Wagner distribution. We attribute this difference to coalescence of domains. A theory of Ostwald ripening is developed that takes into account binary coalescence events. The theoretical scaled distribution function agrees well with that obtained in the simulations.

Onset of thermal convection in a horizontal layer of granular gas

The Navier-Stokes granular hydrodynamics is employed for determining the threshold of thermal convection in an infinite horizontal layer of granular gas. The dependence of the convection threshold, in terms of the inelasticity of particle collisions, on the Froude and Knudsen numbers is found. A simple necessary condition for convection is formulated in terms of the Schwarzschilds criterion, well known in thermal convection of (compressible) classical fluids. The morphology of convection cells at the onset is determined. At large Froude numbers, the Froude number drops out of the problem. As the Froude number goes to zero, the convection instability turns into a recently discovered phase-separation instability.

Strong plasma wave excitation by a ‘‘chirped’’ laser beat wave

A modification of the plasma beat‐wave excitation scheme is proposed, aimed at a significant increase of the resulting plasma wave amplitude. The modification employs two laser beams with a down‐chirped beat frequency that follows, on the average, the amplitude‐dependent frequency of the intense plasma wave. Numerical and analytical calculations that support the proposed scheme are presented. Also, new analytical solutions for the constant beat‐frequency case are obtained. Finally, a plausible experimental setup is suggested, where one of two CO2 laser beams attains the necessary frequency chirp by passing through a diffraction grating pair.

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics - such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states - are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

The nonlinear theory of thermal instability - The intermediate- and short-wavelength limits

The nonlinear evolution of thermally unstable disturbances in a plasma is investigated within the framework of one-dimensional fluid equations. The processes of heating and radiative cooling of the optically thin plasma are taken into account. The limits of intermediate and short wavelengths are considered. In these cases, the characteristic time scale of thermal processes is considerably longer than the acoustic time scale, so that unstable density and temperature perturbations grow in pressure equilibrium with their surroundings. This fact makes it possible to simplify the set of equations describing the instability, and, by using Lagrangian coordinates, to investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the instability analytically. The case of the intermediate-wavelength limit, where the linear theory of Field predicts the maximum growth rate, which presents the most important (and the simplest) case, is investigated in detail. 25 refs.

Speeding up disease extinction with a limited amount of vaccine

We consider optimal vaccination protocol where the vaccine is in short supply. In this case, the endemic state remains dynamically stable; disease extinction happens at random and requires a large fluctuation, which can come from the intrinsic randomness of the population dynamics. We show that vaccination can exponentially increase the disease extinction rate. For a time-periodic vaccination with fixed average rate, the optimal vaccination protocol is model independent and presents a sequence of short pulses. The effect can be resonantly enhanced if the vaccination pulse period coincides with the characteristic period of the disease dynamics or its multiples. This resonant effect is illustrated using a simple epidemic model. The analysis is based on the theory of fluctuation-induced population extinction in periodically modulated systems that we develop. If the system is strongly modulated (for example, by seasonal variations) and vaccination has the same period, the vaccination pulses must be properly synchronized; a wrong vaccination phase can impede disease extinction.