Michael Assaf

Determining the Stability of Genetic Switches: Explicitly Accounting for mRNA Noise

Cells use genetic switches to shift between alternate gene-expression states, e.g., to adapt to new environments or to follow a developmental pathway. Here, we study the dynamics of switching in a generic-feedback on-off switch. Unlike protein-only models, we explicitly account for stochastic fluctuations of mRNA, which have a dramatic impact on switch dynamics. Employing the WKB theory to treat the underlying chemical master equations, we obtain accurate results for the quasistationary distributions of mRNA and protein copy numbers and for the mean switching time, starting from either state. Our analytical results agree well with Monte Carlo simulations. Importantly, one can use the approach to study the effect of varying biological parameters on switch stability.

Extinction of metastable stochastic populations.

We investigate the phenomenon of extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0 . In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is a dissipative variant of WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasistationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasistationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multistep processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B.

Spectral theory of metastability and extinction in birth-death systems.

We suggest a general spectral method for calculating the statistics of multistep birth-death processes and chemical reactions of the type mA-->nA (m and n are positive integers) which possess an absorbing state. The method employs the generating function formalism in conjunction with the Sturm-Liouville theory of linear differential operators. It yields accurate results for the extinction statistics and for the quasistationary probability distribution, including large deviations, of the metastable state. The power of the method is demonstrated on the example of binary annihilation and triple branching 2A--> ø, A-->3A, representative of the rather general class of dissociation-recombination reactions.

Extrinsic noise driven phenotype switching in a self-regulating gene.

Analysis of complex gene regulation networks gives rise to a landscape of metastable phenotypic states for cells. Heterogeneity within a population arises due to infrequent noise-driven transitions of individual cells between nearby metastable states. While most previous works have focused on the role of intrinsic fluctuations in driving such transitions, in this Letter we investigate the role of extrinsic fluctuations. First, we develop an analytical framework to study the combined effect of intrinsic and extrinsic noise on a toy model of a Boolean regulated genetic switch. We then extend these ideas to a more biologically relevant model with a Hill-like regulatory function. Employing our theory and Monte Carlo simulations, we show that extrinsic noise can significantly alter the lifetimes of the phenotypic states and may fundamentally change the escape mechanism. Finally, our theory can be readily generalized to more complex decision making networks in biology.

Cooperation Dilemma in Finite Populations under Fluctuating Environments

We present a novel approach allowing the study of rare events like fixation under fluctuating environments, modeled as extrinsic noise, in evolutionary processes characterized by the dominance of one species. Our treatment consists of mapping the system onto an auxiliary model, exhibiting metastable species coexistence, that can be analyzed semiclassically. This approach enables us to study the interplay between extrinsic and demographic noise on the statistics of interest. We illustrate our theory by considering the paradigmatic prisoners dilemma game, whose evolution is described by the probability that cooperators fixate the population and replace all defectors. We analytically and numerically demonstrate that extrinsic noise may drastically enhance the cooperation fixation probability and even change its functional dependence on the population size. These results, which generalize earlier works in population genetics, indicate that extrinsic noise may help sustain and promote a much higher level of cooperation than static settings.

DNA looping increases the range of bistability in a stochastic model of the lac genetic switch

Conditions and parameters affecting the range of bistability of the lac genetic switch in Escherichia coli are examined for a model which includes DNA looping interactions with the lac repressor and a lactose analogue. This stochastic gene-mRNA-protein model of the lac switch describes DNA looping using a third transcriptional state. We exploit the fast bursting dynamics of mRNA by combining a novel geometric burst extension with the finite state projection method. This limits the number of protein/mRNA states, allowing for an accelerated search of the models parameter space. We evaluate how the addition of the third state changes the bistability properties of the model and find a critical region of parameter space where the phenotypic switching occurs in a range seen in single molecule fluorescence studies. Stochastic simulations show induction in the looping model is preceded by a rare complete dissociation of the loop followed by an immediate burst of mRNA rather than a slower build up of mRNA as in the two-state model. The overall effect of the looped state is to allow for faster switching times while at the same time further differentiating the uninduced and induced phenotypes. Furthermore, the kinetic parameters are consistent with free energies derived from thermodynamic studies suggesting that this minimal model of DNA looping could have a broader range of application.

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics - such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states - are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

Large fluctuations and fixation in evolutionary games

We study large fluctuations in evolutionary games belonging to the coordination and anti-coordination classes. The dynamics of these games, modeling cooperation dilemmas, is characterized by a coexistence fixed point separating two absorbing states. We are particularly interested in the problem of fixation that refers to the possibility that a few mutants take over the entire population. Here, the fixation phenomenon is induced by large fluctuations and is investigated by a semiclassical WKB (Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin) theory generalized to treat stochastic systems possessing multiple absorbing states. Importantly, this method allows us to analyze the combined influence of selection and random fluctuations on the evolutionary dynamics beyond the weak selection limit often considered in previous works. We accurately compute, including pre-exponential factors, the probability distribution function in the long-lived coexistence state and the mean fixation time necessary for a few mutants to take over the entire population in anti-coordination games, and also the fixation probability in the coordination class. Our analytical results compare excellently with extensive numerical simulations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our treatment is superior to the Fokker–Planck approximation when the selection intensity is finite.

Metastability and anomalous fixation in evolutionary games on scale-free networks

We study the influence of complex graphs on the metastability and fixation properties of a set of evolutionary processes. In the framework of evolutionary game theory, where the fitness and selection are frequency dependent and vary with the population composition, we analyze the dynamics of snowdrift games (characterized by a metastable coexistence state) on scale-free networks. Using an effective diffusion theory in the weak selection limit, we demonstrate how the scale-free structure affects the systems metastable state and leads to anomalous fixation. In particular, we analytically and numerically show that the probability and mean time of fixation are characterized by stretched-exponential behaviors with exponents depending on the networks degree distribution.

Fixation in evolutionary games under non-vanishing selection

One of the most striking effect of fluctuations in evolutionary game theory is the possibility for mutants to fixate (take over) an entire population. Here, we generalize a recent WKB-based theory to study fixation in evolutionary games under non-vanishing selection, and investigate the relation between selection intensity w and demographic (random) fluctuations. This allows the accurate treatment of large fluctuations and yields the probability and mean times of fixation beyond the weak-selection limit. The power of the theory is demonstrated on prototypical models of cooperation dilemmas with multiple absorbing states. Our predictions compare excellently with numerical simulations and, for finite w, significantly improve over those of the Fokker-Planck approximation.