Benedicta Marzinotto

Explaining the evolving role of national parliaments under the European Semester

ABSTRACT This contribution examines and explains the role of national parliaments in the European Semester process. It builds on original survey-based evidence and traces whether national parliaments discuss and vote on Stability/Convergence and on National Reform Programmes; how their involvement changed over time; and what might condition national varieties of parliamentary scrutiny over European Union (EU) affairs. We find significant cross-country variation in whether the debate is taking place at the parliamentary level; whether it is European Affairs or finance committees that are involved; and whether there is involvement ex ante (before submission) and/or ex post (after country-specific recommendations). From 2012 to 2015, finance committees played an increasingly prominent role. Traditional measures of the strength of parliament do not explain what we observe. We do find that non-euro area member states were most likely to monitor EU recommendations under the European Semester and that this effect increased over time.

Embedded Macroeconomic Institutions: Italy's Fiscal U-Turn in the 1990s and Beyond†

Short-term theories on the determinants of fiscal consolidation underestimate that fiscal regimes are as entrenched as any other institution of a political economy. The case of Italys fiscal adjustment in the run-up to EMU is used to show that external constraints and well-functioning institutions may well be just auxiliary. The success factor in the countrys macroeconomic stabilization was that competing socio-economic interests, while all in favour of disinflation, could eventually agree on the size and composition of the adjustment thanks to side-payments in the form of a devalued currency. These are unavailable under EMU, which explains why the fiscal reform momentum slowed down, notwithstanding EU fiscal rules. Domestic preference formation goes back a long way: it is associated with an incremental process of institutional change that started in 1981 with the enhanced independence of the Bank of Italy and continued with labour market and budget reform in the late 1980s.