Benjamin J. C. Yuan

Fuzzy ARIMA model for forecasting the foreign exchange market

Considering the time-series ARIMA(p,d,q) model and fuzzy regression model, this paper develops a fuzzy ARIMA (FARIMA) model and applies it to forecasting the exchange rate of NT dollars to US dollars. This model includes interval models with interval parameters and the possibility distribution of future values is provided by FARIMA. This model makes it possible for decision makers to forecast the best- and worst-possible situations based on fewer observations than the ARIMA model. c 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An emerging approach for strategy evaluation in fuel cell development

This is the first research paper on the topic of Taiwan fuel cell development to combine the two theoretical (AHP and FMCDM) approaches. The conclusion suggests that the priority for Taiwan to develop fuel cells are the fields of 3C electronics, power generation equipment, motorcycles and automobiles. The difficulties the industry has encountered and faced, in turn, are the technology bottlenecks, insufficient R&D investment, high costs, unclear government policy and short supply of R&D professionals. Experts believe the top five strategic actions needed to address the problems are to realise the clean energy policy, establish a national level research programme, increase R&D budget, carefully select the niche products and to plan the operating demonstration or pilot zone. The result will serve as a reference for the government to stipulate relevant industry policy.

Foresight on Taiwan nanotechnology industry in 2020

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to create a vision and obtain a consensus on Taiwans nanotechnology industry in three dimensions (the 2007 situation, the RD the maturation time of most techniques will be 2010‐2015; Nanocomposite Material Technique, Nano Optoelectronic and Optical Communication, and Nano Storage show relatively high competitiveness. Self‐R&D and Technology introduced from overseas are the major development methods in 2020.Practical implications – The paper is of interest to foresight practitioners and policy makers at the industri...

Foresight for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan

Purpose – This paper explores the possible future business environment, industrial structure, technological transformation, and market for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.Design/methodology/approach – This study applies the Delphi method to predict future trends in Taiwans semiconductor industry in 2015.Findings – The significant findings are as follows: the future business environment will focus on “industrial internationalization” and “strategic alliance”, and roughly half of Taiwans production will move to China by 2015; the disintegrated model in Taiwans semiconductor industry will still remain by 2015 and will require some adjustments, whereas the foundry service in Taiwan will retain its dominance globally; future core technologies in 2015 will comprise low voltage manufacturing (CMOS), High K, nanotechnology processes, and copper interconnection processes; the estimated value of IC industrial production for 2005 was US

Demand for business information service of firms in Taiwan: a case study of Hsinchu Science-based Industrial Park and Hsinchu Industrial Park

32.1 billion, and will be US

Foresight of development of Taiwanese solar photovoltaic industry

61.0 billion in 2010 and US

Application of the knowledge management in the knowledge-intensive service business: the case studies at ITIS and ITRI in Taiwan

108.8 billion i...

Entrepreneurship and innovation process in the health industry in Taiwan

Abstract Continuous development of technology brings changes in economic environment and market structure. Enterprises should be equipped with speedy and accurate analytical capabilities on business information so that they can foresee the future. For countries such as Taiwan where the majority of the enterprises are small or medium businesses, these enterprises lack the economies of scale and skilled professionals in collecting and analyzing business information in their business environment. External professionals, on the other hand, fit better into their needs. In this case study research, based on organizational buying theory and through questionnaire survey, we try to understand the demand motives, awareness, interest, evaluation items and purchase intention of enterprises for business information in Taiwan. At the end of the case study, we also try to make a few recommendations for information service providers.

A new business model for the gift industry in Taiwan

Benjamin J.C. Yuan received his PhD in Electrical Engineering from State University of New York at Buffalo. He was the founder and the first Chairman of the Institute of Management of Technology at National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan, in 1991. He served as a visiting scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the British Royal Academy in 1990s. He was also recognised as an ‘Outstanding Teacher’ by the Taiwan government in 1994. The International Association for the Management of Technology has awarded him an outstanding researcher in 2004, and he has also been the Editor-in-Chief of several leading domestic and international journals.

Applying grey prediction model for forecasting emerging technology

Industrial research tends to be knowledge-intensive. Reports prepared by well-known industrial research concerns are often invaluable as they provide important directions for the industry. In Taiwan, the Industrial Technology Intelligence Service (ITIS) Program, supported by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, has served as a cradle for many industrial research professionals, and its success has been pivotal to the island nations industrial might. This paper studies how ITIS could promote and influence the industrial research capabilities utilising the Knowledge Management (KM). Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), the biggest state-fostered research institute in Taiwan, has successfully achieved its expectations by exercising KM. Each of the two has its own unique character that could generate different methodologies and processes. This research combines the two cases, analysing archived log files of the past 15 years, to provide the key success factors of their use of KM systems.