Benjamin L. Preston

Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits

Since the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), demand for knowledge regarding the planning and implementation of adaptation as a strategy for climate risk management has increased significantly (Preston et al., 2011a; Park et al., 2012). This chapter assesses recent literature on the opportunities that create enabling conditions for adaptation as well as the ancillary benefits that may arise from adaptive responses. It also assesses the literature on biophysical and socioeconomic constraints on adaptation and the potential for such constraints to pose limits to adaptation. Given the available evidence of observed and anticipated limits to adaptation, the chapter also discusses the ethical implications of adaptation limits and the literature on system transformational adaptation as a response to adaptation limits. To facilitate this assessment, this chapter provides an explicit framework for conceptualizing opportunities, constraints, and limits (Section 16.2). In this framework, the core concepts including definitions of adaptation, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity are consistent with those used previously in the AR4 (Adger et al., 2007). However, the material in this chapter should be considered in conjunction with that of complementary WGII AR5 chapters. These include Chapter 14 (Adaptation Needs and Options), Chapter 15 (Adaptation Planning and Implementation), and Chapter 17 (Economics of Adaptation). Material from other WGII AR5 chapters is also relevant to informing adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits, particularly Chapter 2 (Foundations for Decision Making) and Chapter 19 (Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities). This chapter also synthesizes relevant material from each of the sectoral and regional chapters (Section 16.5). To enhance its policy relevance, this chapter takes as its entry point the perspective of actors as they consider adaptation response strategies over near, medium, and longer terms (Eisenack and Stecker, 2012; Dow et al., 2013a,b). Actors may be individuals, communities, organizations, corporations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), governmental agencies, or other entities responding to real or perceived climate-related stresses or opportunities as they pursue their objectives (Patt and Schroter, 2008; Blennow and Persson, 2009; Frank et al., 2011).

Enhancing the Relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

Climate adaptation heuristics and the science/policy divide

The adaptation science enterprise has expanded rapidly in recent years, presumably in response to growth in demand for knowledge that can facilitate adaptation policy and practice. However, evidence suggests such investments in adaptation science have not necessarily translated into adaptation implementation. One potential constraint on adaptation may be the underlying heuristics that are used as the foundation for both adaptation research and practice. Here, we explore the adaptation academic literature with the objective of identifying adaptation heuristics, assessing the extent to which they have become entrenched within the adaptation discourse, and discussing potential weaknesses in their framing that could undermine adaptation efforts. This investigation is supported by a multi-method analysis that includes both a quantitative content analysis of the adaptation literature that evidences the use of adaptation heuristics and a qualitative analysis of the implications of such heuristics for enhancing or hindering the implementation of adaptation. Results demonstrate that a number of heuristic devices are commonly used in both the peer-reviewed adaptation literature as well as within grey literature designed to inform adaptation practitioners. Furthermore, the apparent lack of critical reflection upon the robustness of these heuristics for diverse contexts may contribute to potential cognitive bias with respect to the framing of adaptation by both researchers and practitioners. We discuss this phenomenon by drawing upon heuristic-analytic theory, which has explanatory utility in understanding both the origins of such heuristics as well as the measures that can be pursued toward the co-generation of more robust approaches to adaptation problem-solving.

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.

Toward a new conceptualization of household adaptive capacity to climate change: applying a risk governance lens

Increasing evidence highlights the importance of context-specific understanding of the impacts of climate change and the need to move beyond generalized assumptions regarding the nature and utility of adaptive capacity in facilitating adaptation. The household level of impact and response is an under-researched context, despite influential decisions affecting local and system vulnerability being made at this scale. Assessments of household adaptive capacity currently assess the influences of adaptive capacity or the influences on adaptive capacity in isolation. We argue that comprehensive assessments need to examine these influences in combination to capture a dynamic and integrated view of households that better reflects their positioning and role(s) in broader social- political contexts. To transition assessments away from examining households as discrete units to recognizing their role within a larger governance context, we outline four themes focused on: (1) analysis of governance contexts, (2) determination of adaptive capacity sources, (3) assessment of cross-scalar trade-offs, and (4) integrated goal setting to facilitate boundary critiques. By considering these themes, the relationships between capacities and actions are highlighted, and the simultaneous outcomes of adaptive choices at individual and broader system scales can be evaluated. We argue that such boundary critique has the potential to yield a more comprehensive assessment of adaptive capacity focused upon cross-scalar influences and impacts.

Perceptions of Risk among Households in Two Australian Coastal Communities

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi-structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall, the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Furthermore, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities; ;

Perceptions matter: household adaptive capacity and capability in two Australian coastal communities

Abstract This paper presents empirical data on household perceptions of capability to adapt to climate hazards and associated capacity needs. Households play an important role in responding to the impact of a changing climate by creating a functional link between individual and community responses to change. However, household perspectives on their capacity needs are rarely sought in programs seeking to provide incentives for household action—despite the influence of normative values and perceptions on household action. Rather, interventions are often informed by quantitative measures of adaptive capacity, such as access to financial or social capital. An alternative approach involves analysis of social narratives of capability that reflect normative perceptions of climate risk and capacity needs. Implementation of this approach reveals that a significant number of households in vulnerable locations consider existing capacities sufficient to manage familiar climate hazards, regardless of socio-economic circumstance. Our comparative study of two Australian coastal communities also suggests that a dominant narrative of capability to manage climate hazards reduces the likelihood of household investments in adaptive actions. While socio-political influences on narratives are often deeply embedded and difficult to change in the short term, identifying perceived risk and response capacity is pivotal in determining the likely utility of adaptive capacity stocks as measured through quantitative means.

Using landscape typologies to model socioecological systems

The complexity of socioecological systems (SES) has posed a persistent challenge to the development of methods for diagnostic and prognostic analyses of global change. We developed a high dimensional statistical framework where cluster analysis was used to characterize regional landscape typologies and those typologies are linked to the outcome of interest through regression modeling. For demonstration, we applied the framework to agroecosystem of the United States Gulf Coast to evaluate the determinants of spatial variability in crop yield. Regional biophysical typologies (BPT; integrated climate, soil, and topography clusters) and socioecological typologies (SET; BPT combined with socioeconomic clusters) were developed. The SET corn model (R2?=?0.89) outperformed the BPT corn model (R2?=?0.72) and a county fixed-effect model (R2?=?0.53), which reflects the socioeconomic influence over agricultural productivity. The SET model also showed similar predictive skill for soybean and cotton yield. Therefore impact analysis for agroecosystems can lead to incorrect conclusions if biophysical factors are not examined jointly with socioeconomic factors. The socioecological typology method was used for identifying and attributing regional crop yield variability.The models demonstrated high predictive skill.Useful for integrating multi-scaled characteristic of socioecological systems.

Evaluation of National Adaptation Planning: A Case Study in Indonesia

The present study aims to evaluate national adaptation planning, using the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (RAN-API) in Indonesia as a case. In doing so, the current study applies the methodology used in Preston et al. (2011), where a set of 57 adaptation plans from three developed countries was evaluated against 19 planning processes. The same criteria and scoring system were applied to the current study to evaluate RAN-API, both as identified in its document and as viewed by the stakeholders. A desktop review and questionnaires were undertaken to this end. It was found that discrepancies exist between the status of RAN-API as documented and the stakeholders’ views of some criteria, suggesting that information or knowledge gaps may still exist despite the efforts made for stakeholder engagement. In some of the other criteria, the stakeholders’ views match the status as identified in the document. Most notably, they both agree that the weakness of RAN-API is related to limited consideration for non-climatic factors. While the development of RAN-API is a critical step taken in the country, the current study finds that there remains room for further improvement. The criteria or indicators to be used to assess the progress of RAN-API as a whole may need to be further elaborated.