Benno Ferrarini

Fiscal Sustainability in Developing Asia

The central objective of this paper is to empirically examine the issue of fiscal sustainability in developing Asia. To do so, we first diagnose the region’s public finances by analyzing the evolution of key fiscal indicators over time and across subregions. We then estimate fiscal policy response functions that measure the adjustment of the primary fiscal balance to public debt positions. Overall, our results indicate that the region’s public finances are in good shape as a result of responsible fiscal behavior. Nevertheless, failure to withdraw the region’s anticrisis fiscal stimulus in a timely manner may jeopardize fiscal sustainability, bolstering the case for strong medium-term fiscal policy frameworks.

Public debt sustainability in developing Asia

1. Introduction, Benno Ferrarini, Raghbendra Jha, and Arief Ramayandi 2. Analytical Approaches to Assessing Public Debt Sustainability, Raghbendra Jha 3. Public Debt Sustainability Assessments for Developing Asia, Benno Ferrarini and Arief Ramayandi 4. Public Debt Sustainability and Hidden Liabilities in Peoples Republic of China, Richard Hemming 5. Public Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Management in India, Mukul G. Asher 6. Public Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Vulnerability in Viet Nam, Charles Adams 7. Conclusions and Other Country Perspectives, Benno Ferrarini, Raghbendra Jha, and Arief Ramayandi

Changing Trade Costs between People’s Republic of China and India

This paper calculates the decline in costs involving merchandise trade between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India during the period 1980–2008. Drawing from the recent literature, a comprehensive measure of trade costs is derived from a theory-founded gravity model of international trade, which can be computed on the basis of observed bilateral trade flows and gross domestic product data. The analysis reveals that trade costs have declined sharply since the 1980s, accounting for a large and increasing portion of growth in total trade between the two countries. Whereas the reduction of trade costs accounted for less than one third of the increase in trade between the PRC and India during the 1980s, lower costs seem to explain about three quarters of trade expansion during the 1990s, and up to nearly 85% in 2001–2008.

Mapping Vertical Trade

The paper develops a method to map global networks of production sharing and processing trade. Relying on highly detailed bilateral trade data across a matrix of 75 countries, a network index gauges countries’ interdependence according to the extent of trade in parts and components for further processing and assembly of final export goods. The set of bilateral network relations is then subjected to an algorithm that lays it out for visualization as a world map of vertical trade networks. Maps are drawn in relation to processing trade across all industries, as well as for the electric/electronics and automotive industries, where such trade is most prominent. The analysis identifies three major hubs in the global networks: the People’s Republic of China in connection with Japan, Germany, and the United States. Apart from Mexico (mainly because of its maquiladoras network ties to the United States) the analysis highlights that outside Asia, developing countries are not yet involved in global production networks to any significant degree.

The Product Space Revisited: China's Trade Profile

The concept of product space has encountered broad interest within the development community, as an analytical tool against which to assess countries’ potential to diversify their production and export structures. It has received far less attention in the economics literature, and its assumptions and building blocks have not been put under scrutiny. This paper assesses whether exclusive reliance on export data in product space analysis may limit its value as a tool assessing country capabilities. Reliance on net trade flows—to account for horizontal intra-industry trade—and on unit values—to capture within-product differentiation—changes the features of the product space. Based on a highly detailed data set of both trade value and volume and spanning over 144 countries, the amended product space put forth in this paper shows that China has indeed expanded its trade profile to now occupy also product areas that are typically associated with higher-income countries. However, Chinas remarkable success in expanding horizontally within the product space is strongly qualified by the introduction of the vertical dimension, which shows the country to be occupying mostly the low-unit value segment of product categories, more akin to the typical trade profile of a developing country.

Public Debt Sustainability Assessments for Developing Asia

This paper discusses the evolution of fiscal balances and public debt ratios in developing Asia from the mid-1990s to 2010 and investigates the conditions for public debt sustainability in the region. The economies in this region have derived great benefits from having relied on rapid economic growth and low interest rates, which together have been exerting a persistent downward pressure on debt ratios. The main emphasis is on the historical and prospective evolution of public debt indicators under different macroeconomic assumptions. The discussion revolves around debt sustainability implications of a negative interest rate–growth differential, a characteristic of the macroeconomic environment in Asia during the last two decades. The debt sustainability analysis shows overwhelming evidence of a generally benign outlook for public debt sustainability in the region.

Asia's Melting Trade Costs

This study calculates the decline in costs involving merchandise trade between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India during the period 1980-2008. Drawing from the recent literature, a comprehensive measure of trade costs is derived from a theory-founded gravity model of international trade, which can be computed based on the observed bilateral trade flows and GDP data. The analysis reveals that trade costs have declined sharply since the 1980s, accounting for a large and increasing portion of growth in total trade between the two countries. Whereas the reduction in trade costs accounted for less than one-third of the increase in trade between PRC and India during the 1980s, lower costs seem to explain about three‐quarters of trade expansion during the 1990s and up to nearly 85 per cent in 2001-08.

Tariff Liberalization and Trade Specialization in India

Since the early 1990s, India has embarked on economic reforms that have progressively opened up the country to international trade. This paper analyzes the effects of reform on India’s trading structure from 1990 to 2006. It computes comparative advantage indicators on the basis of disaggregated trade flow data, and assesses the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of India’s pattern of trade specialization. From dynamic panel regression analysis, evidence is found that those industries where import tariffs have been reduced the most have experienced the highest increase in specialization. Moreover, the analysis shows that trade liberalization has helped India improve its comparative advantage in industries with medium- to high-technology content, as well as in some of the industries enjoying the most robust growth in global demand.

BILATERAL TRADE AND FOOD SECURITY

We analyze the relationship between food security and trade, focusing on food importers’ exposure to sudden market failures from relying on a narrow range of international suppliers. We compute a bilateral import penetration index (BIPI), which gauges the degree to which a country depends on another for food imports. Food trade maps are drawn by the application of a force-directed algorithm that sorts through computed BIPIs and maps the nodes corresponding to the strength of bilateral ties between country pairs, thereby showing importers’ vulnerabilities to disruptions in bilateral channels. Results suggest that measures aimed at diversifying supply sources reduce vulnerability.

Complexity, Specialization, and Growth

This paper analyzes the role of complexity in production on the level of output and on its rate of growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, where increased complexity could exert either a positive or a negative effect on the level of output but always a positive effect on its rate of growth. Our empirical measure of complexity is derived from net trade flows, and is based on the product space description of production sectors in the global economy. The evidence from a broad cross-section of countries is consistent with the main theoretical predictions of the model, and supports the view that production complexity is important in order to account for differences in economic performance. An indicator of the intensity of vertical trade among countries is also shown to be relevant to explain output performance.