Bernhard Boockmann

Fixed-term Contracts as Sorting Mechanisms: Evidence From Job Durations in West Germany

We estimate the effect of initial episodes under fixed-term contracts (FTCs) on job duration in the further course of the employment spell, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1985 to 2002. Using a statistical matching approach, we find that job exit rates are initially much higher if the employment spell began with an FTC. However, exit rates fall below those of comparable spells spent entirely in permanent employment after a few years time. This suggests that FTCs accelerate a sorting process and that they may at least to some part be understood as prolonged probationary periods. Strikingly, the probability of long-term employment of more than five years duration is not lower in spells that are initially concluded as FTCs. Hence, the sorting processes taking place in both forms of contracts seem to be of similar intensity.

The use of flexible working contracts in West Germany: evidence from an establishment panel

This paper investigates under which conditions firms use fixed-term contracts, subcontracted and freelance work. Using a probit model which accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, we find that positive changes in expected or actual turnover are associated with a higher probability of employing atypical work, which suggests that these forms of employment are used as means of adjustment. Other important factors are employees? skill levels, investment in information technology, and the existence of collective wage agreements and works councils. Furthermore, a natural experiment is used to evaluate the impact of dismissal protection for permanent workers on the use of flexible working contracts. There is clear evidence that reducing dismissal protection decreases the demand for fixed-term employment.

Cohort Effects and the Returns to Education in West Germany

Using a Mincer-type wage function, we estimate cohort effects in the returns to education for West German workers born between 1925 and 1974. The main problem to be tackled in the specification is to separately identify cohort, experience, and possibly also age effects in the returns. For women, we find a large and robust decline in schooling premia: in the private sector, the returns to a further year of post-compulsory education fell from twelve per cent for the 1945-49 cohort to about seven per cent for those born in the early 1970s. Cohort effects in mens returns to education are less obvious, but we do find evidence that they, too, have declined. We conclude by identifying possible reasons for the decline.

Workers, Firms, or Institutions: What Determines Job Duration for Male Employees in Germany?

We examine job durations of German workers using linked employer-employee data. Our results indicate that exit rates are strongly influenced by firm characteristics. The effects of some of these characteristics, however, are limited to particular job positions or skill groups. There is clear evidence for a sorting process whereby workers with long expected job durations are matched to firms offering stable employment (and vice versa). An extension of the model to a competing-risks framework shows that both individual and firm-level characteristics differ greatly in their impact on job exit to different destination states. Among the substantive results, it would appear that works councils decrease exit both to unemployment and to new jobs, but do so only for blue collar workers.

The ratification of ILO conventions: A hazard rate analysis

There are over 180 ILO conventions in many areas of labour law, industrial relations and social security, but they are not ratified universally: for the conventions adopted between 1975 and 1995, the cumulative probability of ratification is about 13 percent 10 years after their adoption. In this paper, the ratification decision is understood as a transition between two states. Using duration analysis, we identify circumstances which are favourable to this transition. For industrialized countries, the ratification of ILO conventions is shown to depend on internal political factors such as government preferences or the power of left-wing parties in parliament. For developing countries, economic costs of ratification have a significant impact. There is no evidence for external pressure in favour of ratification. Among industrialized member states, there is a clear downward trend in estimated ratification probabilities over the last two decades. Copyright 2001 Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

Bayesian estimation of Cox models with non-nested random effects: an application to the ratification of ILO conventions by developing countries

We use a multivariate hazard model to analyse the ratification behaviour of ILO conventions by developing countries. The model accounts for two random effects: one at the country level, the other at the convention level. After investigating identification, we use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on the partial likelihood. We find diverging results between Bayesian and frequentist estimates concerning the importance of the two unobserved heterogeneities.

Specific Measures for Older Employees and Late Career Employment

We analyse the effects of specific measures for older employees (SMOE) on employment duration of workers aged 40 and above. Using longitudinal employer-employee data for German establishments, we account for worker and establishment heterogeneity and correct for stock-sampling. We find a positive effect of mixed-aged team work on employment duration and a negative effect of a part-time scheme addressed at older workers. Employment duration does not appear to be related to other SMOE, such as training and specific equipment of workplaces.

Turning the Switch: An Evaluation of the Minimum Wage in the German Electrical Trade Using Repeated Natural Experiments

Abstract The introduction, abolition and subsequent re-introduction of the minimum wage in the German electrical trade gave rise to series of natural experiments, which are used to study minimum wage effects. We find similar impacts in all three cases on wages, employment and the receipt of public welfare benefits. Average wages are raised by the minimum wage in East Germany, but there is almost no evidence for employment effects. The results also show that the wage effect is quickly undone after the abolition of the minimum wage.

Seniority and Job Stability: A Quantile Regression Approach Using Matched Employer-Employee Data

Job mobility and employment durations can be explained by different theoretical approaches, such as job matching or human capital theory or dual labor market approaches. These models may, however, apply to different degrees at different durations in the employment spell. Standard empirical techniques, such as hazard rate analysis, cannot deal with this problem. In this paper, we apply censored quantile regression techniques to estimate employment durations of male workers in Germany. Our results give some support to the job matching model: individuals with a high risk of being bad matches exhibit higher exit rates initially, but the effect fades out over time. By contrast, the influence of human capital variables such as education and further training decreases with employment duration, which is inconsistent with the notion of increasing match-specific rents due to human capital accumulation. The results also suggest that the effects of certain labor market institutions, such as works councils, differ markedly between short-term and long-term employment, supporting the view that institutions give rise to dual labor markets.

Flexibility provisions in multilateral environmental treaties

In international politics, intergovernmental treaties provide the rules of the game. Similar to private law, treaty designers face a trade-off between flexibility to adjust to unforeseen contingencies and the danger that the binding nature of the treaty and hence, the level of commitment by treaty members, is being undermined if the treaty can be amended too easily. In this paper, we address this problem in the analytical framework of institutional economics, drawing in particular on the incomplete contracts literature. Furthermore, we derive preliminary hypotheses and operational concepts for the measurement of flexibility in international treaties. Based on 400 treaties and supplementary agreements from the field of international environmental law, we provide new insights into the combined application of rules for adoption and entry into force of amendments, as well as provisions for conflict resolution and interpretative development. Using correspondence analysis, we show that treaty provisions can be represented in a two-dimensional property space, where treaties can be arrayed according to the degree of institutionalisation as well as along a flexibility dimension.