Bert Rudels

Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations

Abstract Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lowe...

Constraints on exchanges in the Arctic Mediterranean—do they exist and can they be of use?

Abstract Extensive changes have been reported from the Arctic Mediterranean. The ice cover is retreating, the temperature in the Atlantic layer has been increasing, the salinity in the upper layers shows large variations and deep waters in the Greenland Sea have become warmer and more saline. These changes all appear externally forced; by the radiation balance, by the atmosphere, and by ocean advection. The question arises—are there processes inherent to the Arctic Ocean, which can constrain changes induced by external forcing? Three features are examined; the storage and export of liquid freshwater in the upper layers, the heat loss of the Atlantic water encountering sea ice and the possibility to define a salinity separating the two roles of the Arctic Mediterranean, as estuary and as concentration basin. If the freshwater outflow in the upper layer is rotationally controlled, the liquid freshwater storage and export only depend upon the freshwater input. The melting rate of sea ice is affected both by the heat transport and by the temperature of the inflowing Atlantic water. A salinity separating the estuarine and the deep-water circulation is proposed depending upon the salinity and the temperature of the Atlantic water as it encounters sea ice.

Observations in the Ocean

The chapter begins with an overview of the exploratory work done in the Arctic Ocean from the mid nineteenth century to 1980, when its main features became known and a systematic study of the Arctic Ocean evolved. The following section concentrates on the decade between 1980 and 1990, when the first scientific icebreaker expeditions penetrated into the Arctic Ocean, when large international programme were launched, and the understanding of the circulation and of the processes active in the Arctic Ocean deepened. The main third section deals with the studies and the advances made during the ACSYS decade. The section has three headings: the circulation and the transformation of water masses; the changes that have been observed in the Arctic Ocean, especially during the last decades; and the transports between the Arctic Ocean and the surrounding world ocean through the different passages, Fram Strait, Barents Sea, Bering Strait and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In section four, the Arctic Ocean is considered as a part of the Arctic Mediterranean Sea, and the impacts of possible climatic changes on the circulation in the Arctic Mediterranean and on the exchanges with the world ocean are discussed.

On the origin and propagation of Denmark Strait overflow water anomalies in the Irminger Basin

Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) supplies the densest contribution to North Atlantic Deep Water and is monitored at several locations in the subpolar North Atlantic. Hydrographic (temperature and salinity) and velocity time series from three multiple-mooring arrays at the Denmark Strait sill, at 180 km downstream (south of Dohrn Bank) and at a further 320 km downstream on the east Greenland continental slope near Tasiilaq (formerly Angmagssalik), were analyzed to quantify the variability and track anomalies in DSOW in the period 2007-2012. No long-term trends were detected in the time series, while variability on time scales from interannual to weekly was present at all moorings. The hydrographic time series from different moorings within each mooring array showed coherent signals, while the velocity fluctuations were only weakly correlated. Lagged correlations of anomalies between the arrays revealed a propagation from the sill of Denmark Strait to the Angmagssalik array in potential temperature with an average propagation time of 13 days, while the correlations in salinity were low. Entrainment of warm and saline Atlantic Water and fresher water from the East Greenland Current (via the East Greenland Spill Jet) can explain the whole range of hydrographic changes in the DSOW measured downstream of the sill. Changes in the entrained water masses and in the mixing ratio can thus strongly influence the salinity variability of DSOW. Fresh anomalies found in downstream measurements of DSOW within the Deep Western Boundary Current can therefore not be attributed to Arctic climate variability in a straightforward way

The Structure and Driving Mechanisms of the Baltic Intrusions

Abstract Data from closely spaced CTD profiling performed in the eastern Gotland Basin after the 1993 inflow event are used to study thermohaline intrusions in the Baltic Sea. Two CTD cross sections display abundant intrusive layers in the permanent halocline. Despite the overwhelming dominance of the salinity stratification, diffusive convection is shown to work in the Baltic halocline enhancing diapycnical mixing. To understand the driving mechanisms of observed intrusions, these are divided into different types depending on their structural features. Only two types of observed intrusions are suggested to be strongly influenced by diffusive convection: 1) relatively thin (3–5 m) and long (up to 8 km) intrusions inherent to high-baroclinicity regions and 2) relatively thick (∼10 m) and short (2–5 km) intrusions inherent to low-baroclinicity regions. To verify this hypothesis the linear stability models of 3D and 2D double-diffusive interleaving in approximation of a finite-width front were used. It is sh...

Atlantic water flow into the Arctic Ocean through the St. Anna Trough in the northern Kara Sea

The Atlantic Water flow from the Barents and Kara seas to the Arctic Ocean through the St. Anna Trough (SAT) is conditioned by interaction between Fram Strait branch water circulating in the SAT and Barents Sea branch water—both of Atlantic origin. Here we present data from an oceanographic mooring deployed on the eastern flank of the SAT from September 2009 to September 2010 as well as CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) sections across the SAT. A distinct vertical density front over the SAT eastern slope deeper than ∼50 m is attributed to the outflow of Barents Sea branch water to the Arctic Ocean. In turn, the Barents Sea branch water flow to the Arctic Ocean is conditioned by two water masses defined by relative low and high fractions of the Atlantic Water. They are also traceable in the Nansen Basin downstream of the SAT entrance. A persistent northward current was recorded in the subsurface layer along the SAT eastern slope with a mean velocity of 18 cm s−1 at 134–218 m and 23 cm s−1 at 376–468 m. Observations and modeling suggest that the SAT flow has a significant density-driven component. It is therefore expected to respond to changes in the cross-trough density gradient conditioned by interaction between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches. Further modeling efforts are necessary to investigate hydrodynamic instability and eddy generation caused by the interaction between the SAT flow and the Arctic Ocean Fram Strait branch water boundary current.

Modified Halocline Water over the Laptev Sea Continental Margin: Historical Data Analysis

Historical hydrographic data (1940s–2010) show a distinct cross-slope difference of the lower halocline water (LHW) over the Laptev Sea continental margins. Over the slope, the LHW is on average warmer and saltier by 0.2°C and 0.5 psu, respectively, relative to the off-slope LHW. The LHW temperature time series constructed from the on-slope historical records are related to the temperature of the Atlantic Water (AW) boundary current transporting warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the on-slope LHW salinity is linked to the sea ice and wind forcing over the potential upstream source region in the Barents and northern Kara Seas, as also indicated by hydrodynamic model results. Over the Laptev Sea continental margin, saltier LHW favors weaker salinity stratification that, in turn, contributes to enhanced vertical mixing with underlying AW.

Arctic Ocean stability: The effects of local cooling, oceanic heat transport, freshwater input, and sea ice melt with special emphasis on the Nansen Basin

The Arctic loses energy to space and heat is transported northward in the atmosphere and ocean. The largest transport occurs in the atmosphere. The oceanic heat flux is significantly smaller, and the warm water that enters the Arctic Ocean becomes covered by a low-salinity surface layer, which reduces the heat transfer to the sea surface. This upper layer has two distinct regimes. In most of the deep basins it is due to the input of low-salinity shelf water, ultimately conditioned by net precipitation and river runoff. The Nansen Basin is different. Here warm Atlantic water is initially in direct contact with and melts sea ice, its upper part being transformed into less dense surface water. The characteristics and depth of this layer are determined as functions of the temperature of the Atlantic water and for different energy losses using a one-dimensional energy balance model. The amount of transformed Atlantic water is estimated for two different sea ice melt rates and the assumption of a buoyant boundary outflow. To create the upper layer sea ice formed elsewhere has to drift to the Nansen Basin. With reduced ice cover, this ice drift might weaken and the ice could disappear by the end of winter. The surface buoyancy input would disappear, and the upper layer might eventually convect back into the Atlantic water, reducing the formation of less dense Polar water. The created ice-free areas would release more heat to the atmosphere and affect the atmospheric circulation.

Fram Strait and Greenland Sea transports, water masses, and water mass transformations 1999–2010 (and beyond)

The exchanges between the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean are important for the ocean circulation and climate. Transports are here estimated using summer hydrographic data from the Greenland Sea and the Fram Strait. Geostrophic transports are computed from hydrographic sections at 75°N in the Greenland Sea and at about 79°N in the Fram Strait. Geostrophic velocities are adjusted with summer velocities derived from Argo floats, and four conservation constraints are applied to a box closed by the two sections. The estimated net volume transports are 0.8 ± 1.5 Sv southward. Net freshwater transports through the Greenland Sea section are estimated at 54 ± 20 mSv and through the Fram Strait section at 66 ± 9 mSv. Heat loss in the area between the two sections is estimated at 9 ± 12 TW. Convection depths in the Greenland Sea are estimated from observations and vary between about 200 and 2000 dbar showing no trend. Water mass properties in the Greenland Sea are affected both by convection and lateral mixing. Vertical mixing is estimated from hydrography and based on it about 1 Sv of diluted Arctic Ocean waters are estimated to enter the Greenland Sea. The properties of Atlantic, intermediate, and deep waters are studied. Deep water properties are defined using water mass triangles and are subject to decadal changes.

Estimates of entrainment in the Denmark Strait overflow plume from CTD/LADCP data

The data of the CTD survey conducted in the Denmark Strait and Irminger Sea in May–June 2009 are used to calculate the vertical profiles of the turbulent overturning scale, which are then used to estimate the dissipation and entrainment rates in the overflow plume. The resulting estimates of the entrainment rate varied widely from 2 × 10–7 to 7 × 10–3 m/s. It is shown that such a wide range of entrainment rates is caused by the intermittency of turbulence. Large turbulent overturning at the interface of the Denmark Strait overflow plume is detected on the vertical temperature, salinity, and potential density profiles.