Beth Grill

Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities’ Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

Although great strides have been made toward forecasting state-level instability, little progress has been made toward the prediction of outbreaks of urban unrest. This article presents a method for the assessment of cities’ vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Forty-five factors correlated with urban unrest are identified and weighted by an expert panel. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process and the resulting assessment framework. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.

Between Large-N and Small-N Analyses: Historical Comparison of Thirty Insurgency Case Studies

Abstract The authors study the 30 insurgencies occurring between 1978 and 2008 using four methods crossing the qualitative/quantitative divide. The four approaches are narrative, bivariate comparison, comparative qualitative analysis, and K-medoids clustering. The quantification of qualitative data allows the authors to compare more cases than they could “hold in their heads” under a traditional small-n qualitative approach, improving the quality of the overall narrative and helping to ensure that the quantitative analyses respected the nuance of the detailed case histories. Structured data-mining reduces the dimensionality of possible explanatory factors relative to the available observations to expose patterns in the data in ways more common in large-n studies. The four analytic approaches produced similar and mutually supporting findings, leading to robust conclusions.

From Patchwork to Framework: A Review of Title 10 Authorities for Security Cooperation

Abstract : U.S. efforts to build the capacity of foreign partners have a long history. The United States exported arms to allies during World War I, enacted the Lend Lease Act in 1941, and cooperated with security forces around the world to counter the expansion of communism during the Cold War and strengthen democratic principles after communisms collapse. While Department of Defense (DoD) efforts in security cooperation had been evolving to meet a changing postCold War global security environment, building partner capacity gained new impetus in U.S. national strategy after the terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11, 2001. However, the accelerated proliferation of legislative authorities for the DoD in Public Law and Title 10 of the U.S. Code in the ensuing 15 years has created an increasingly unwieldy catalog of statutes, which has generated severe challenges in planning and execution of security cooperation with foreign partners.

Moving Beyond Population-Centric Vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

Abstract Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context.