Björn E. Gunnarson

Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era

An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability. Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.

New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the A.D. 536 dust veil

In New Zealand human cryptosporidiosis demonstrates spring and autumn peaks of incidence with the spring peak being three times greater in magnitude than the autumn peak. The imbalance between the two peaks is notable, and may be associated with the high livestock density in New Zealand. In the summer and autumn the cryptosporidiosis rate was positively associated with temperatures in the current and previous month, highlighting the importance of outdoor recreation to transmission. No associations between spring incidence and weather were found providing little support for the importance of drinking-water pathways. Imported travel cases do not appear to be an important factor in the aetiology of cryptosporidiosis in New Zealand.

A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe

Combining nine tree growth proxies from four sites, from the west coast of Norway to the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia, provides a well replicated (> 100 annual measurements per year) mean index of tree growth over the last 1200 years that represents the growth of much of the northern pine timberline forests of northern Fennoscandia. The simple mean of the nine series, z-scored over their common period, correlates strongly with mean June to August temperature averaged over this region (r = 0.81), allowing reconstructions of summer temperature based on regression and variance scaling. The reconstructions correlate significantly with gridded summer temperatures across the whole of Fennoscandia, extending north across Svalbard and south into Denmark. Uncertainty in the reconstructions is estimated by combining the uncertainty in mean tree growth with the uncertainty in the regression models. Over the last seven centuries the uncertainty is < 4.5% higher than in the 20th century, and reaches a maximum of 12% above recent levels during the 10th century. The results suggest that the 20th century was the warmest of the last 1200 years, but that it was not significantly different from the 11th century. The coldest century was the 17th. The impact of volcanic eruptions is clear, and a delayed recovery from pairs or multiple eruptions suggests the presence of some positive feedback mechanism. There is no clear and consistent link between northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures and solar forcing.

SUMMER TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN CENTRAL SCANDINAVIA DURING THE LAST 3600 YEARS

ABSTRACT. A Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree‐ring width chronology from Jämtland, in the central Scandinavian Mountains, built from living and sub‐fossil wood, covering the period 1632 BC to AD 2002, with a minor gap during AD 887–907, is presented. This is the first multi‐millennial tree‐ring chronology from the central parts of Fennoscandia. Pine growth in this tree line environment is mainly limited by summer temperatures, and hence the record can be viewed as a temperature proxy. Using the regional curve standardization (RCS) technique, pine‐growth variability on short and long time scales was retained and subsequently summer (June–August) temperatures were reconstructed yielding information on temperature variability during the last 3600 years. Several periods with anomalously warm or cold summers were found: 450–550 BC (warm), AD 300–400 (cold), AD 900–1000 (the Medieval Warm Period, warm) and AD 1550–1900 (Little Ice Age, cold). The coldest period was encountered in the fourth century AD and the warmest period 450 to 550 BC. However, the magnitude of these anomalies is uncertain since the replication of trees in the Jämtland record is low during those periods. The twentieth century warming does not stand out as an anomalous feature in the last 3600 years. Two multi‐millennial tree‐ring chronologies from Swedish and Finnish Lapland, which have previously been used as summer temperature proxies, agree well with the Jämtland record, indicating that the latter is a good proxy of local, but also regional, summer temperature variability.

Age trends in tree ring growth and isotopic archives: A case study of Pinus sylvestris L. from northwestern Norway

Measurements of tree ring width and relative density have contributed significantly to many of the large-scale reconstructions of past climatic change, but to extract the climate signal it is first ...

Temporal distribution pattern of subfossil pines in central Sweden : perspective on Holocene humidity fluctuations

The temporal variations in distribution pattern of Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) have been used as an annual resolution record of past lake-level changes. Logs, preserved for thousands of years in bog and lakes (subfossil wood), were sampled from small lakes of the Scandinavian Mountains in west-central Sweden to construct a tree-ring chronology from an area where pines are sensitive to growth season (ie, summer) temperature. The chronology spans from AD 2006 to 4868 BC, with two minor gaps at 1600 BC and AD 900 and one larger gap at 2900 BC. The dendrochronological approach can provide a high quality long-term perspective on lake level fluctuations, which possibly can be coupled to changes in humidity. Submerged trunks were found in situ, embedded in sediments, and because trees from the earliest periods were not necessarily found at the deepest levels, this shows clearly that lake levels must have been lower than present at the time of tree-growth. The lake levels must have fluctuated, creating alternating conditions of pine regeneration and mortality. The fluctuating lake levels recorded are suggested to be a result of regional humidity increases and decreases, mainly governed by precipitation changes. Periods of lower lake levels were inferred at 4900—4800 BC, 3800—3600 BC, 3400—3250 BC, 2400—2200 BC, 2100—1800 BC, 1500—1100 BC, 900—800 BC, 400—100 BC, AD 50—300, AD 400—600, AD 900—1100, AD 1350—1500 and AD 1700—1800. Periods of higher lake levels are tentatively encountered at 3600—3400 BC, 3200—2900 BC, 2200—2100 BC, 1700—1500 BC, 1100—900 BC, 800—400 BC, 100 BC—AD 50, AD 300—400, AD 750—900, AD 1100—1250 and AD 1550—1700.

Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC

Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC

Reconstructing Holocene climate from tree rings: The potential for a long chronology from the Scottish Highlands

Despite promising research in the 1980s showing the potential of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for the reconstruction of past summer temperatures in the Scottish Highlands, little dendroclimatic work has been attempted in this region since. This reflects, in part, the limited number of sparsely distributed remnant natural/semi-natural pine woodlands in the Scottish Highlands and the lack of old growth forest therein. On average, most of the pine trees dated in this region are around 225 years in age. Here, we present the first results of an ongoing interdisciplinary initiative to develop a long Scottish chronology through the acquisition of modern, historical and subfossil pine material from the native pinewoods, historic structures and lakes of the Scottish Highlands. Radiocarbon dating of 25 subfossil pine timbers recovered from lake sediments identified the presence of preserved material covering the last 8000 years with initial clusters focused on the last two millennia and early–mid Holocene. Although developing a well-replicated 8000 year pine chronology will take many years, this preliminary study indicates that a millennial length pine chronology from the northwest Cairngorm region is a feasible and realistic objective in the near future. The importance of such a record in this climatically important sector of northwest Europe cannot be underestimated.

BLUE INTENSITY IN PINUS SYLVESTRIS TREE RINGS : A MANUAL FOR A NEW PALAEOCLIMATE PROXY

Abstract Minimum blue intensity is a reflected light imaging technique that provides an inexpensive, robust and reliable surrogate for maximum latewood density. In this application it was found that temperature reconstructions from resin-extracted samples of Pinus sylvestris (L.) from Fennoscandia provide results equivalent to conventional x-ray densitometry. This paper describes the implementation of the blue intensity method using commercially available software and a flat-bed scanner. A calibration procedure is presented that permits results obtained by different laboratories, or using different scanners, to be compared. In addition, the use of carefully prepared and chemically treated 10-mm-diameter cores are explored; suggesting that it may not be necessary to produce thin laths with the rings aligned exactly perpendicular to the measurement surface.

Drought is the major limiting factor for tree-ring growth of high-altitude Canary Island pines on Tenerife

This is a detailed study of 50 wood cores sampled from 25 Canary Island pines (Pinus canariensis) growing in a subtropical climate close to the tree limit (at Lomo de Retamar, 2000–2100 m a.s.l.) on the southern, leeward side of Tenerife. The Canary Island pines form tree‐rings and, similarly to temperate pines, earlywood is formed during spring. But many pines fail to form tree‐rings every year and one purpose for this paper has been to find a way to overcome this problem. Another purpose has been to see what correlations, if any, exist between the ring widths and meteorological data. Meteorological data have been collected since 1916 at the nearby Izaña meteorological observatory. It was also important to find the limiting factor for growth of Canary Island pines close to the tree limit. Through cross‐dating, missing rings were found to be typical for younger parts of older trees; in the same years younger trees instead had low growth. Some trees lacked more than 20 rings in a century. This study shows that it is possible to compensate for missing rings, at least when the number of missing rings is less than 10%. Correlation studies showed that the growth of the tree rings was mainly due to the precipitation factor, particularly the annual precipitation one year before the ring formation, but also due to temperature. Strangely enough, multiple linear regression gave the highest correlation coefficient (0.50) for a combination of annual precipitation one year earlier and temperature four years earlier.