Giles H. F. Young

A 500-year record of summer near-ground solar radiation from tree-ring stable carbon isotopes

Tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratios (d13C) in environments of low moisture stress are likely to be controlled primarily by photosynthetic rate. Therefore, sunshine, rather than temperature, represents the more direct controlling factor. Temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring d13C results thus rest on the assumption that temperature and sunshine are strongly coupled. This assumption is tested using a d13C series from pine trees in NW Norway, where there are long (>100 yr) records of both summer temperature and cloud cover. It is demonstrated that when summer temperature and d13C diverge, summer temperature and cloud cover also diverge, and that cloud cover/sunshine may provide a stronger and more consistent parameter with which to calibrate tree-ring d13C series in this area. When a 500-year reconstruction of summer cloudiness is compared with a published reconstruction of summer temperatures in northern Sweden based on tree-ring maximum densities, the two time-series are largely parallel, with high levels of annual—decadal coherence. We identify, however, three distinct periods of lower frequency divergence: two (AD 1600—1650 and AD 1900—1927) when we propose summers were cool but sunny and one during the first half of the sixteenth century when summers were warm but cloudy. These episodes where temperature and sunshine decouple may represent large-scale changes in circulation as recorded in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. Strongly negative values of the summer AO index, as occurred during the early twentieth century, are associated with persistent high pressure over northern Norway and Fennoscandia, bringing cool summers with clear skies. Long reconstructions of cloudiness (near-ground radiation), based on tree-ring d13C series from suitable sites, would be extremely valuable for testing General Circulation Models (GCMs), because the generation of cloud is a strong control on temperature evolution, but remains a major source of uncertainty.

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water‐use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.

A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe

Combining nine tree growth proxies from four sites, from the west coast of Norway to the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia, provides a well replicated (> 100 annual measurements per year) mean index of tree growth over the last 1200 years that represents the growth of much of the northern pine timberline forests of northern Fennoscandia. The simple mean of the nine series, z-scored over their common period, correlates strongly with mean June to August temperature averaged over this region (r = 0.81), allowing reconstructions of summer temperature based on regression and variance scaling. The reconstructions correlate significantly with gridded summer temperatures across the whole of Fennoscandia, extending north across Svalbard and south into Denmark. Uncertainty in the reconstructions is estimated by combining the uncertainty in mean tree growth with the uncertainty in the regression models. Over the last seven centuries the uncertainty is < 4.5% higher than in the 20th century, and reaches a maximum of 12% above recent levels during the 10th century. The results suggest that the 20th century was the warmest of the last 1200 years, but that it was not significantly different from the 11th century. The coldest century was the 17th. The impact of volcanic eruptions is clear, and a delayed recovery from pairs or multiple eruptions suggests the presence of some positive feedback mechanism. There is no clear and consistent link between northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures and solar forcing.

Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years

Cloud cover is one of the most important factors controlling the radiation balance of the Earth. The response of cloud cover to increasing global temperatures represents the largest uncertainty in ...

Age trends in tree ring growth and isotopic archives: A case study of Pinus sylvestris L. from northwestern Norway

Measurements of tree ring width and relative density have contributed significantly to many of the large-scale reconstructions of past climatic change, but to extract the climate signal it is first ...

Changes in atmospheric circulation and the Arctic Oscillation preserved within a millennial length reconstruction of summer cloud cover from northern Fennoscandia

Cloud cover currently represents the single greatest source of uncertainty in General Circulation Models. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) from tree-rings, in areas of low moisture stress, are likely to be primarily controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and therefore should provide a proxy record for cloud cover or sunshine; indeed this association has previously been demonstrated experimentally for Scots pine in Fennoscandia, with sunlight explaining ca 90% of the variance in photosynthesis and temperature only ca 4%. We present a statistically verifiable 1011-year reconstruction of cloud cover from a well replicated, annually-resolved δ13C record from Forfjord in coastal northwestern Norway. This reconstruction exhibits considerable variability in cloud cover over the past millennium, including extended sunny periods during the cool seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and warm cloudy periods during the eleventh, early fifteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that while a generally positive relationship persists between sunshine and temperature at high-frequency, at lower (multi-decadal) frequencies the relationship is more often a negative one, with cool periods being sunny (most notably the Little Ice Age period from 1600 to 1750 CE) and warm periods more cloudy (e.g. the mediaeval and the twentieth century). We conclude that these long-term changes may be caused by changes in the dominant circulation mode, likely to be associated with the Arctic Oscillation. There is also strong circumstantial evidence that prolonged periods of high summer cloud cover, with low PAR and probably high precipitation, may be in part responsible for major European famines caused by crop failures.

Recent trends in the intrinsic water-use efficiency of ringless rainforest trees in Borneo

Stable carbon isotope (δ13C) series were developed from analysis of sequential radial wood increments from AD 1850 to AD 2009 for four mature primary rainforest trees from the Danum and Imbak areas of Sabah, Malaysia. The aseasonal equatorial climate meant that conventional dendrochronology was not possible as the tree species investigated do not exhibit clear annual rings or dateable growth bands. Chronology was established using radiocarbon dating to model age–growth relationships and date the carbon isotopic series from which the intrinsic water-use efficiency (IWUE) was calculated. The two Eusideroxylon zwageri trees from Imbak yielded ages of their pith/central wood (±1 sigma) of 670 ± 40 and 759 ± 40 years old; the less dense Shorea johorensis and Shorea superba trees at Danum yielded ages of 240 ± 40 and 330 ± 40 years, respectively. All trees studied exhibit an increase in the IWUE since AD 1960. This reflects, in part, a response of the forest to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Unlike studies of some northern European trees, no clear plateau in this response was observed. A change in the IWUE implies an associated modification of the local carbon and/or hydrological cycles. To resolve these uncertainties, a shift in emphasis away from high-resolution studies towards long, well-replicated time series is proposed to develop the environmental data essential for model evaluation. Identification of old (greater than 700 years) ringless trees demonstrates their potential in assessing the impacts of climatic and atmospheric change. It also shows the scientific and applied value of a conservation policy that ensures the survival of primary forest containing particularly old trees (as in Imbak Canyon and Danum).

Oxygen stable isotope ratios from British oak tree-rings provide a strong and consistent record of past changes in summer rainfall

AbstractUnited Kingdom (UK) summers dominated by anti-cyclonic circulation patterns are characterised by clear skies, warm temperatures, low precipitation totals, low air humidity and more enriched oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) in precipitation. Such conditions usually result in relatively more positive (enriched) oxygen isotope ratios in tree leaf sugars and ultimately in the tree-ring cellulose formed in that year, the converse being true in cooler, wet summers dominated by westerly air flow and cyclonic conditions. There should therefore be a strong link between tree-ring δ18O and the amount of summer precipitation. Stable oxygen isotope ratios from the latewood cellulose of 40 oak trees sampled at eight locations across Great Britain produce a mean δ18O chronology that correlates strongly and significantly with summer indices of total shear vorticity, surface air pressure, and the amount of summer precipitation across the England and Wales region of the United Kingdom. The isotope-based rainfall signal is stronger and much more stable over time than reconstructions based upon oak ring widths. Using recently developed methods that are precise, efficient and highly cost-effective it is possible to measure both carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope ratios simultaneously from the same tree-ring cellulose. In our study region, these two measurements from multiple trees can be used to reconstruct summer temperature (δ13C) and summer precipitation (δ18O) with sufficient independence to allow the evolution of these climate parameters to be reconstructed with high levels of confidence. The existence of long, well-replicated oak tree-ring chronologies across the British Isles mean that it should now be possible to reconstruct both summer temperature and precipitation over many centuries and potentially millennia.

Temporal stability in bristlecone pine tree-ring stable oxygen isotope chronologies over the last two centuries:

The absolutely dated bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) tree-ring chronology spans almost 9000 years, offering great potential for inferring past environmental change. Existing ring width chronologies have been widely used to produce some of the most influential millennial length temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere. A recently published δ 18O record from two bristlecone pine trees growing at Methuselah Walk in the White Mountains of California showed a dramatic decrease in δ 18O between AD 1850 and 1920 (c. 13‰), interpreted as indicating a major shift in Pacific storm tracks over the past 300 years. Here we present new bristlecone pine δ18O time series from 15 trees at three White Mountains sites, including two series from Methuselah Walk. Whilst occasional high interannual variability is observed in our δ 18O series, none of our chronologies exhibit an equivalent pronounced or sustained twentieth-century decrease, suggesting the earlier results are anomalous and may require palaeoclimatic re-interpretation.

A 520 year record of summer sunshine for the eastern European Alps based on stable carbon isotopes in larch tree rings

A 520-year stable carbon isotope chronology from tree ring cellulose in high altitude larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.), from the eastern European Alps, correlates more strongly with summer temperature than with summer sunshine hours. However, when instrumental records of temperature and sunshine diverge after AD1980, the tree ring time series does not follow warming summer temperatures but more closely tracks summer sunshine trends. When the tree ring stable carbon isotope record is used to reconstruct summer temperature the reconstruction is not robust. Reconstructed temperatures prior to the twentieth century are higher than regional instrumental records, and the evolution of temperature conflicts with other regional temperature reconstructions. It is concluded that sunshine is the dominant control on carbon isotope fractionation in these trees, via the influence of photosynthetic rate on the internal partial pressure of CO2, and that high summer (July–August) sunshine hours is a suitable target for climate reconstruction. We thus present the first reconstruction of summer sunshine for the eastern Alps and compare it with the regional temperature evolution.