Boqi Liu

Genesis of the South Asian High and Its Impact on the Asian Summer Monsoon Onset

AbstractThe formation of the South Asian high (SAH) in spring and its impacts on the Asian summer monsoon onset are studied using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data together with a climate-mean composite technique and potential vorticity–diabatic heating (PV–Q) analysis. Results demonstrate that, about 2 weeks before the Asian summer monsoon onset, a burst of convection over the southern Philippines produces a negative vorticity source to its north. The SAH in the upper troposphere over the South China Sea is then generated as an atmospheric response to this negative vorticity forcing with the streamline field manifesting a Gill-type pattern. Afterward, the persistent rainfall over the northern Indochinese peninsula causes the SAH to move westward toward the peninsula. Consequently, a trumpet-shaped flow field is formed to its southwest, resulting in divergence pumping and atmospheric ascent just over the southeastern Bay of Bengal (BOB).Near the surface, as a surface anticyclone is formed over t...

Asian summer monsoon onset barrier and its formation mechanism

Abstract The onset process of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is investigated based on diagnostic analysis of observations of precipitation and synoptic circulation. Results show that after the ASM commences over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB) around early May, the onset can propagate eastwards towards the South China Sea and western Pacific but is blocked on its westward propagation along the eastern coast of India. This blocking, termed the “monsoon onset barrier (MOB)”, presents a Gill-type circulation response to the latent heating released by BOB monsoon convection. This convective condensation heating generates summertime (wintertime) vertical easterly (westerly) shear to its east (west) and facilitates air ascent (descent). The convection then propagates eastward but gets trapped on its westward path. To the east of the central BOB, the surface air temperature (SAT) cools faster than the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) due to monsoon onset. Thus more sensible heat flux supports the onset convection to propagate eastward. To the west of the central BOB, however, the land surface sensible heating over the Indian Peninsula is strengthened by the enhanced anticyclone circulation and air descent induced by the BOB monsoon heating. The strengthened upstream warm horizontal advection then produces a warm SAT center over the MOB region, which together with the in situ cooled SST reduces the surface sensible heating and atmospheric available potential energy to prevent the occurrence of free convection. Therefore, it is the change in both large-scale circulation and air–sea interaction due to BOB summer monsoon onset that contributes to the MOB formation.

Influences of ENSO on the vertical coupling of atmospheric circulation during the onset of South Asian summer monsoon

Based on multiple sources of atmospheric and oceanic data, this study performs a series of composite analysis of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) onset against ENSO events, and indicates that warm/cold ENSO events induce later/earlier onset of the SASM by modulating the vertical coupling of the upper- and lower-level circulation over the South Asia. Specifically, during the monsoon onset of Bay of Bengal (BOB), the ENSO-induced convection anomalies over the southern Philippines can modulate the position of South Asian high (SAH) in late April in the upper troposphere, which evolves to affect the monsoon onset convection by changing the upper divergence-pumping effect. In the lower troposphere, ENSO induces an anomalous zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indian-western Pacific Ocean to alter the barotropic instability which further affects the formation of BOB monsoon onset convection. During the Indian summer monsoon onset, the anomalous convection over northeastern BOB and Indochina Peninsula in late May act to change the SAH position and its relevant upper divergence-pumping over the Arabian Sea (AS). Meanwhile, the Indian monsoon onset convection is also modulated by the ENSO-induced changes in intensity of the inertial instability and the forced convection over the AS, which are related to an ENSO-induced anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient and zonally asymmetric meridional gradient of sea level pressure, and an anomalous westerly over the central AS in the lower troposphere. Results demonstrate that during the BOB and India monsoon onset, the influences of ENSO on the upper circulation are similar, but are distinctly different on the lower-level circulation.

CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Niño and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century

AbstractFuture projections of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) types of El Nino in the twenty-first century, as well as their associated tropical circulation and precipitation variability, are investigated using historical runs and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations from 31 coupled models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As inferred from CMIP5 models that best capture both El Nino flavors, EP El Nino sea surface temperature (SST) variability will become weaker in the future climate, while no robust change of CP El Nino SST is found. Models also reach no consensus on the future change of relative frequency from CP to EP El Nino. However, there are robust changes in the tropical overturning circulation and precipitation associated with both types of El Nino. Under a warmer climate, magnitudes of precipitation anomalies during EP El Nino are projected to increase, presenting significant enhancement of the dry (wet) signal over the we...

Roles of forced and inertially unstable convection development in the onset process of Indian summer monsoon

The NCEP/NCAR R1 reanalysis data are employed to investigate the impact of forced and inertial instability in the lower troposphere over the Arabian Sea on the onset process of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and to reveal the important role of zonal advection of zonal geostrophic momentum played in the forced unstable convection. Results show that during the ISM onset the zero absolute vorticity contour (η= 0) shifts northward due to the strong cross-equatorial pressure gradient in the lower troposphere over southern Arabian Sea. Thus a region with negative absolute vorticity is generated near the equator in the northern hemisphere, manifesting the evident free inertial instability. When a southerly passes through this region, under the influence of friction a lower convergence that facilitates the convection flourishing at the lower latitudes appears to the north of zero absolute vorticity contour. However, owing to such a traditional inertial instability, the convection is confined near the equator which does not have direct influence on the ISM onset. On the contrary in the region to the north of the zero absolute vorticity contour and to the south of the low pressure center near the surface, although the atmosphere there is inertially stable, the lower westerly jet can develop and bring on the apparent zonal advection of zonal geostrophic momentum. Both theoretical study and diagnosing analysis present that such a zonal advection of geostrophic momentum is closely associated with the zonal asymmetric distribution of meridional land-sea thermal contrast, which induces a convergence center near and further north of the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over the southwestern coast of the Indian Peninsula, providing a favorable lower circulation for the ISM onset. It illustrates that the development of convection over the Arabian Sea in late spring and early summer is not only due to the frictional inertial instability but also strongly affected by the zonal asymmetric distribution of land-sea thermal contrast. Moreover, before the ISM onset due to the eastward development of the South Asian High (SAH) in the upper troposphere, high potential vorticity is transported to the region over the Arabian Sea. Then a local trumpet-shaped stream field is generated to cause the evident upper divergence-pumping effect which favors the ISM onset. When the upper divergence is vertically coupled with the lower convergence resulted from the aforementioned forced unstable convection development near the southwestern coast of Indian Peninsula, the atmospheric baroclinic unstable development is stimulated and the ISM onset is triggered.

A Comparative Study on the Dominant Factors Responsible for the Weaker-than-expected El Niño Event in 2014

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme El Niño event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted El Niño event. Based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of El Niño events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean–atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific–unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of El Niño was suspended in summer 2014.

Two Types of Interannual Variability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Related to the SST Anomalies before and after 1993/94

AbstractAn advance in the timing of the onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) during the period 1980–2014 can be detected after 1993/94. In the present study, the interannual variability of the SCSSM onset is classified into two types for the periods before and after 1993/94, based on their different characteristics of vertical coupling between the upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation and the differences in their related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). On the interannual time scale, type-I SCSSM onset is characterized by anomalous low-level circulation over the northern SCS during 1980–93, whereas type-II SCSSM onset is associated with anomalies of upper-level circulation in the tropics during 1994–2014. The upper-tropospheric thermodynamic field and circulation structures over the SCS are distinct between the two types of SCSSM onset, and this investigation shows the importance of the role played by the spring SSTAs in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) and that of ENSO e...

Impact of tropical cyclone development on the instability of South Asian High and the summer monsoon onset over Bay of Bengal

This paper analyzes the evolution of the South Asian High (SAH) during and after the development of tropical cyclone Neoguri over the South China Sea (SCS) in mid-April 2008, the formation of tropical storm Nargis over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in late April, and the Asian summer monsoon onset, as well as their interrelationships. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the underlying mechanism responsible for these seasonal transitions in 2008. It is demonstrated that strong latent heating related with tropical cyclone activities over the SCS can enhance the development of the SAH aloft and generate zonal asymmetric potential vorticity (PV) forcing, with positive vorticity advection to its east and negative advection to its west. Following the decay of the tropical cyclone, this asymmetric forcing leads to instability development of the SAH, presenting as a slowly westward-propagating Rossby wave accompanied by a westward shift of the high PV advection. A strong upper tropospheric divergence on the southwest of the SAH also shifts westward, while positive PV eddies are shed from the high PV advection and eventually arrives in the southern BOB. Such synoptic patterns provide favorable pumping conditions for local cyclonic vorticity to develop. The latent heating release from the cyclogenesis further intensifies the upper-layer divergence, and the lower and upper circulations become phase locked, leading to the explosive development of the tropical cyclone over the southern BOB. Consequently, a tropical storm is generated and the BOB summer monsoon commences.

A possible precursor of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset: Effect of the South Asian High

In climatology, the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) generally onsets in Pentad 28 (16–20 May). The eastward extension of the South Asian High into the SCS in Pentad 27 is a possible precursor to the SCSSM onset. In the upper troposphere, the South Asian High (SAH) warms the air by inducing the positive potential vorticity advection, which strengthens precipitation over the southern SCS. When local convection becomes strong enough to decrease the vertical temperature gradient in Pentads 28–29, the upper level warming center overlies the subcloud warm region over the SCS to satisfy the requirement of the angular momentum conservation. A cross-equatorial flow then forms, together with strong vertical easterly wind shear and deep monsoon convection over the SCS, marking the full establishment of the SCSSM. The abrupt change in the SAH in May could therefore be an early indicator of the onset of the SCSSM.

Two interannual dominant modes of the South Asian High in May and their linkage to the tropical SST anomalies

The variations of the intensity and position of the South Asian High (SAH) in May are critical for the interannual change in the Asian summer monsoon onset process. The present work has defined two dominant modes of the SAH in May via the principal component analysis of SAH’s strength, zonal extension and ridgeline position indices during 1979–2015. The first mode (SAH intensity mode) features a coherent enhancement of the SAH strength and zonal extension, while the second mode (SAH position mode) exhibits a meridional swing of the SAH ridgeline. Both diagnosis analysis and numerical experiments validate that the distinct evolution of ENSO in boreal spring determines its different influences on the two modes. When an El Niño decays quickly during March–May, its resultant warm anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean can affect the SAH intensity mode by modifying the tropical convection over the southwestern Bay of Bengal, acting as a local SST forcing to the circulation. However, the SAH position mode depends on the persistence of the ENSO event during boreal spring. The remote El Niño-related SST forcing can enhance the large-scale descent over the Indo–Pacific Ocean, which suppresses the tropical convection to modify the mid–upper-level thermal structure over South Asia, inducing the interannual variation of the SAH ridgeline in May.