Boris Radovanov

Food scare crisis: the effect on Serbian dairy market

The increasing trend of food scandal crises is not well followed in recent studies of spatial price transmission. This paper analyses the impact on the domestic market of an Aflatoxin M1 outbreak in the Serbian dairy sector during 2013/2014 using a spatial price transmission approach. Monthly farm milk prices in Serbia for the period 2007/2014 were contrasted with leading dairy exporting countries New Zealand, USA and Germany, which did not have a food scare in their dairy sectors. To estimate the impacts a Markov-switching vector error-correction model was utilized. For all four dairy markets the model identified two price change regimes: standard and extreme. Although it was predictable, an extreme regime was not identified during the Aflatoxin M1 crises in Serbia because of some specific characteristics of its dairy production. The results suggest that the Aflatoxin M1 outbreak ‘froze’ the Serbian dairy market and temporally disconnected it from the world milk market. Farmer’s prices fell below their l...

Testing The Performance Of The Investment Portfolio Using Block Bootstrap Method

Abstract The aim of this paper is to create a stable model of investment portfolio optimization through a high degree of diversification and reduction of sudden changes in the allocation with monitoring of the dynamics of the impact factor. In this sense, there is bootstrap application procedure, which, without an excessive number of constraints involved in the optimization process provides solutions based on uncertain information. Thus defined, the optimization method has been patented by Michaud (1999) entitled re-sampled efficiency. Accordingly, this paper offers a comparison of the performance block bootstrap optimization models and traditional Markowitzs model inside and outside of the sample by applying the most frequently traded stocks on the BSE. The results show a better performance out of the sample and the presence of a larger number of shares forming the portfolio through bootstrap methodology. However, only through the traditional optimization process could be attained optimum according to the required limits. Such effects can be observed by comparing the limits of efficiency obtained through these optimization models. However, optimization-based methods bootstrap finds its place in reducing errors of assessment resulting from the limited sample size.