Borja Larrain

Ownership Dynamics with Large Shareholders: An Empirical Analysis

We study the empirical determinants of corporate ownership dynamics using a unique, hand-collected 20-year data set on the ownership structure of Chilean companies. Controllers’ blockholdings are on average high and stable over time. Controllers still make changes to their holdings through issuance and block trades. In a typical year controllers’ blockholdings decrease (increase) by 5 percentage points or more in approximately 6% (7%) of firms. We find that the separation between controllers’ voting and cash-flow rights reduces the likelihood of ownership dilution. Dilution is preceded by high stock returns and predicts low stock returns in the future when done through issuance.

Financial Development, Financial Constraints, and the Volatility of Industrial Output

More financially developed countries show lower volatility of industrial output. Volatility is particularly reduced in industries that are more financially dependent. Most of the reduction is in idiosyncratic volatility. Systematic volatility is reduced less strongly, implying that industries are more closely correlated with GDP in more financially developed countries. At the firm level, short-term debt is negatively correlated with output as financial development increases, suggesting that debt is used in a countercyclical way to stabilize production. The results indicate that financial development relaxes financial constraints mainly to smooth negative cashflow shocks

Stock Market Development and Cross-Country Differences in Relative Prices

We document a positive correlation between stock market capitalization and price levels (wages) within the group of countries with poorly developed stock markets and a negative correlation between these two variables within the group of countries with more developed stock markets. This paper argues that there is a causal relationship behind these correlations. Stock markets initially stimulate growth, pushing the demand for nontradables and increasing prices and wages. Stock markets also promote a shift toward more capital-intensive technologies in the tradable sector, increasing the migration of workers to services and eventually putting downward pressure on wages and prices.

Coordinated Noise Trading: Evidence from Pension Fund Reallocations

We document a novel channel through which coordinated noise trading exerts externalities on financial markets dominated by institutional investors. We exploit a unique set of events where Chilean pension fund investors followed an influential financial advisory firm that recommended frequent switches between equity and bond funds. The recommendations, which mostly followed short-term trends, generated large and coordinated fund flows. These flows resulted in substantial price pressure and increased volatility in financial markets. Pension funds increased cash holdings as a response. Our findings suggest that giving retirement savers unconstrained reallocation opportunities may exert negative externalities on financial markets.

International Risk-Taking, Volatility, and Consumption Growth

We show that countries that take on more international risk are rewarded with higher expected consumption growth. International risk is defined as the beta of a countrys consumption growth with world consumption growth. High-beta countries hold more foreign assets, as predicted by the theory. Despite the positive effects of beta, a countrys idiosyncratic volatility is negatively correlated with expected consumption growth. Therefore, uninsured shocks affect not only current growth, but also future consumption growth. High-volatility countries have worse net foreign asset positions, suggesting that solvency constraints limit their future growth.

The Effects of Business Group Affiliation: Evidence from Firms Being 'Left Alone'

We propose a novel identification strategy for estimating the effects of business group affiliation. We study two-firm business groups, some of which split up during the sample period, leaving some firms as stand-alones. We instrument for stand-alone status using shocks to the industry of the other group firm. We find that firms that become stand-alone reduce leverage and investment. Consistent with collateral cross-pledging, the effects are more pronounced when the other firm had high tangibility. Consistent with capital misallocation in groups, the reduction in leverage is stronger in firms that had low (high) profitability (leverage) relative to industry peers.

CEO Compensation Among Firms Controlled by Large Shareholders: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Using a novel data base for three emerging markets, we find that the type of large shareholder matters for CEO compensation. In particular, we find a compensation premium of about 30 log points for professional (not controller-related) CEOs working in firms controlled by a family compared to firms controlled by other large shareholders. The premium cannot be explained away by standard firm characteristics, observable executive skills (e.g., education or tenure), or the compensation of the CEO in her former job. The premium comes mostly from family firms with absent founders and when sons are involved.

Supply Matters for Asset Prices: Evidence from Ipos in Emerging Markets

We show that the introduction of a new asset affects the prices of previously existing assets in a market. Using data from 254 IPOs in emerging markets, we find that stocks in industries that covary highly with the industry of the IPO experience a larger decline in prices relative to other stocks during the month of the IPO. The effects are stronger when the IPO is issued in a market that is less integrated internationally, and when the IPO is big. The evidence supports the idea that the composition of asset supply affects the cross-section of stock prices.

The Stock Market and Cross Country Differences in Relative Prices

This paper studies the impact of stock market development on cross country relative prices (the real exchange rate). A nonlinear relationship is uncovered in the cross section: prices and the stock market increase together in the beginning; then prices fall as the stock market continues to develop. In fact, among rich countries the relationship between prices and the stock market is negative. This result obtains after controlling for per capita income and for endogeneity issues by using legal origins. A small open economy model is presented to explain the connection between stock market development and relative prices: better investment opportunities increase consumption levels and the price of nontradable goods (income effect); but if stock market assets are less labor intensive than previous entrepreneurial technologies, prices can fall as the stock market grows because more labor is available for producing nontradables (substitution effect). This paper illustrates the connection of the stock market with goods and labor markets; it also has potential implications for the political economy of financial development. In a sideline contribution, it provides prices for entrepreneurial assets.

Do Banks Affect the Level and Composition of Industrial Volatility and How

In theory, better access to bank credit can increase or reduce output volatility depending on whether financially constrained firms face more cash-flow or investment opportunity shocks. This paper finds that countries with high levels of bank credit have low volatility of industrial output. Most of the reduction in volatility is idiosyncratic, which follows from the ability of banks to pool and diversify shocks. Systematic volatility is also reduced, but less strongly so. Volatility dampening is achieved via counter-cyclical borrowing: at the firm level, short-term borrowing is more negatively correlated with sales in countries with high levels of bank credit.