Brant Liebmann

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone: Intensity, Form, Persistence, and Relationships with Intraseasonal to Interannual Activity and Extreme Rainfall

Abstract The characteristics of intensity, geographical location, and persistence of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the austral summer are investigated. Intensity and spatial features of the SACZ are identified by performing a factor analysis of structural properties of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The first two leading factors explain 65% of the total variance of structural properties and characterize the SACZ according to intensity and location (oceanic versus continental). An index is constructed based on the magnitude of the factor scores to identify intense (weak) and oceanic (continental) SACZ. The intense SACZ category is associated with negative OLR anomalies over a large area of tropical South America, extending from the western Amazon to the Atlantic Ocean. The weak SACZ category is observed with positive OLR anomalies over tropical South America and negative OLR anomalies over southeastern South America. Oceanic and continental aspects of the SACZ are related to a ...

Submonthly Convective Variability over South America and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Abstract Relationships between deep convection over South America and the atmospheric circulation are examined, with emphasis on submonthly variations of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during austral summer. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is used as a proxy for convection, while the associated circulation patterns are depicted by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis. Over South America and the adjacent oceans, OLR fluctuations with periods less than 90 days show maximum variance in the SACZ and over central South America during December–February. There is a local minimum in variance over the southern Amazon Basin, where mean convection is at a maximum. OLR spectra display several statistically relevant peaks corresponding to periods of less than 30 days over tropical South America, with the relative proportion of higher-frequency power increasing as the base grid point is moved to the southeast within the SACZ. Correlations between submonthly (2–30-day) OLR in the vi...

Onset and End of the Rainy Season in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

Onset and end of the rainy season in the Amazon Basin are examined for the period 1979‐96. The onset and end dates are determined by averaging daily rainfall data from many stations, and then constructing 5-day averages (pentads). Onset (end) is defined as the pentad in which rainfall exceeds (falls below) a given threshold, provided that average rainfall was well below (above) the threshold for several pentads preceding onset (end), and well above (below) the threshold for several pentads after onset (end). For the criteria chosen, the climatological onset progresses toward the southeast, arriving in mid-October, and then toward the mouth of the Amazon, arriving near the end of the year. The end dates are earliest in the southeast and progress toward the north, but withdrawal is slower than onset. The onset dates, however, are quite sensitive to changes in the threshold. If the threshold is doubled, for example, the sense of onset is reversed, with onset occurring toward the northwest. Changes in threshold do not change the direction of the progression of the end of the rainy season. The central Amazon shows the largest variation in the date of onset. In several years, onset in the southeast occurs before that in the central Amazon, but onset near the mouth is always latest. There is an unexpectedly low relationship between the length of the rainy season and total accumulation. Likewise, there is little relationship between the onset (and end) date and the total accumulation. Composites of outgoing longwave radiation and the low-level wind field show that in the central Amazon, onset is associated with an anomalous anticyclone and enhanced trade winds in the Atlantic. Near the mouth of the Amazon, however, onset is associated with large-scale northerly anomalies, and the zonal component of the trade winds is reduced. There is an apparent association between sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific and the pentads of onset and end of the rainy season in the northern and central Amazon, and near its mouth. The sense is that a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic result in a delayed onset and early withdrawal. Although the ←

Interannual Variability of the Rainy Season and Rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon Basin

Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is examined in context of its relationship to sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Linear correlations reveal strong relationships, but rainfall patterns are of regional scale. Areas of rainfall exhibiting strong relationships with SST are confined to the equatorial region of the Brazilian Amazon. The best relationships are found either during the season of transition between wet and dry regimes, or entirely within the dry season. It is hypothesized, and results are shown in support, that during the transition seasons, an important contributor to the SST control on seasonal totals is its influence on the timing on the rainy season onset or end. That influence appears to be stronger than the SST influence on the rainy season rain rate.

Extreme Precipitation Events in Southeastern South America and Large-Scale Convective Patterns in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Abstract The occurrence of daily extreme precipitation events in southeast South America (Sao Paulo, Brazil) and the spatial features of convective activity in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are investigated. Precipitation data from surface stations in Sao Paulo state from 1979 to 1996 are used to determine the frequency of occurrence of extremely heavy daily precipitation events. Daily averages of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are examined to characterize convective activity in the SACZ. OLR features are identified with factor analysis. Two factors explain ∼65% of the total variance of the convective activity patterns in tropical South America and characterize events according to the intensity and extent of the OLR features over the Atlantic Ocean. The combination of factors indicates that 35% of extreme precipitation events occurred when convective activity in the SACZ was intense over large parts of tropical South America, which includes Sao Paulo, but with less extent toward the Atlant...

A Composite Study of Onset of the Australian Summer Monsoon

Abstract Onset of the Australian summer monsoon is identified each year (1957–87) using the wind and rainfall record at Darwin. Onset is defined as the first occurrence of wet, 850 mb westerly winds. Composites of atmospheric fields at stations in and about the Australian tropics are constructed relative to the onset date at Darwin. The composite onset is accompanied by the development of a convectively driven, baroclinic circulation over northern Australia. Upper tropospheric easterlies expand about the equator and the subtropical jet shifts poleward at onset. This behavior is interpreted as a transient southerly shift of the local Hadley circulation concurrent with the development of an upper level anticyclone over northern Australia. The composite onset coincides with the arrival of an eastward propagating convective anomaly. The anomaly originates in the southern Indian Ocean, propagates eastward at 5 m s−1 and is detectable as far east as the date line. An eastward propagating zonal wind anomaly also...

The Intraseasonal (30–50 day) Oscillation of the Australian Summer Monsoon

Abstract The tropical intraseasonal (30–50 day) oscillation manifests itself in the Australian summer monsoon by a pronounced modulation of the monsoonal westerlies. These 30-50 day fluctuations of the monsoonal westerlies are coherent with rainfall and OLR across northern Australia. The OLR fluctuation originates in the Indian Ocean and systematically propagates eastward at 5 m s−1, consistent with previous studies of the intraseasonal oscillation. The detailed evolution of the intraseasonal oscillation of the monsoon is studied via composites of upper air data in and about the Australian tropics. During the summer periods 1957-87, 91 events were identified at Darwin, Australia. The composite oscillation at Darwin has a very deep baroclinic structure with westerlies extending up to 300 mb. The westerly phase lasts about ten days and lags a similar duration rainfall event by about four days. During the westerly phase, the upper troposphere is warm and the extreme lower troposphere is cool. This structure ...

Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection

Significance Whether the dry-season length will increase is a central question in determining the fate of the rainforests over Amazonia and the future global atmospheric CO2 concentration. We show observationally that the dry-season length over southern Amazonia has increased significantly since 1979. We do not know what has caused this change, although it resembles the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report seem to substantially underestimate the variability of the dry-season length. Such a bias implies that the future change of the dry-season length, and hence the risk of rainforest die-back, may be underestimated by the projections of these models. We have observed that the dry-season length (DSL) has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, primarily owing to a delay of its ending dates (dry-season end, DSE), and is accompanied by a prolonged fire season. A poleward shift of the subtropical jet over South America and an increase of local convective inhibition energy in austral winter (June–August) seem to cause the delay of the DSE in austral spring (September–November). These changes cannot be simply linked to the variability of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Although they show some resemblance to the effects of anthropogenic forcings reported in the literature, we cannot attribute them to this cause because of inadequate representation of these processes in the global climate models that were presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. These models significantly underestimate the variability of the DSE and DSL and their controlling processes. Such biases imply that the future change of the DSE and DSL may be underestimated by the climate projections provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report models. Although it is not clear whether the observed increase of the DSL will continue in the future, were it to continue at half the rate of that observed, the long DSL and fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The large uncertainty shown in this study highlights the need for a focused effort to better understand and simulate these changes over southern Amazonia.

Subseasonal Variations of Rainfall in South America in the Vicinity of the Low-Level Jet East of the Andes and Comparison to Those in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Abstract Regional and large-scale circulation anomalies associated with variations in rainfall downstream of the South American low-level jet are identified and compared to those in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). Composites of precipitation associated with strong jets reveal an approximate doubling of the quantities one would expect from climatology, with an evolution of the rainfall pattern from south to north. The occurrence of extreme precipitation events follows a similar pattern. Meridional cross sections of composite wind reveal a distinct low-level jet near 20°S and a baroclinic development farther south that appears to force the jet. Geopotential height, temperature, and large-scale wind composites suggest that this developing disturbance is tied to a wave train that originates in the midlatitude Pacific and turns equatorward as it crosses the Andes Mountains. Similar composites based on SACZ rainfall reveal similar features, but of opposite sign, suggesting that the phase of the wave...

Medium-Range Forecast Errors Associated with Active Episodes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Abstract Systematic forecast errors associated with active episodes of the tropical Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are examined using five winters of dynamical extended range forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis model. Active episodes of the MJO are identified as those periods when the amplitude of either of the first two empirical orthogonal functions of intraseasonally filtered outgoing longwave radiation, which efficiently capture the MJO, is large. Forecasts initialized during active episodes of the MJO are found not to capture the eastward propagation of the tropical precipitation and circulation anomalies associated with the MJO. Rather, the MJO-induced anomalies of precipitation and winds are systematically forecast to weaken and even retrograde. By about day 7 of the forecast the convectively coupled, tropical circulation anomalies produced by the MJO are largely gone. Systematic errors in the extratropical 200-mb streamfunction also fully develop by day 10....