Brenda Jones

Vulnerability index construction: methodological choices and their influence on identifying vulnerable neighbourhoods

Indices are increasingly important for emergency planning at the community level, particularly with respect to identifying vulnerable neighbourhoods and mapping disaster potential. This paper provides both a critical literature review and an empirical case study that highlight the importance of different types of decisions in the construction of vulnerability indices. The case study focuses on the flooding risk in Vancouver, Canada, from both an evacuation and rebuilding perspective. Results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that spatial outcomes of vulnerability are highly sensitive to decisions regarding variable selection and representation, moderately sensitive to decisions about variable weighting and minimally affected by decisions about variable scaling.

Implications of climate change for visitation to ontario's provincial parks

Abstract Parkprofessionals have recognized that global climate change could have significant implications for park conservation policy and management, but assessment of the implications for nature‐based tourism remains very limited. In the Province of Ontario, provincial parks are a major resource for nature‐based tourism, with more than 10 million person visits in 2003. This paper presents an empirical assessment of the potential impact of a changed climate on visitation in Ontarios provincial parks. Multiple regression analysis was used to develop a relationship between monthly park visits and climate for six high‐visitation parks selected to represent each of Ontario Parks administrative regions. The models were then used to examine the potential direct impact of changes in climate on the total annual number of visitors and the seasonal pattern of visitation to Ontarios parks using climate change scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Visitation was projected to increase between 11% and 27% system‐wide in the 2020s and between 15% and 56% in the 2050s. When climate change was combined with the potential effects of demographic change, annual visits for the mid‐2020s were projected to be even higher than that projected under climate change alone (23% to 41%). Management implications of the projected visitation increases are also discussed.

The Impact of Climate Change on Golf Participation in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA): A Case Study

Golf is identified as a large recreation industry that is particularly sensitive to weather and climate, yet research assessing the direct relationship between them is extremely limited. Consequently, the potential implications of climate change for the industry remain largely unexamined. This case study presents findings of an analysis of the influence of weather conditions on the number of rounds played at a golf course in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) of Southern Ontario (Canada). An empirical relationship between daily rounds played and weather variables, derived through multiple regression analysis, was then used to examine the potential impacts of two climate change scenarios on the length of the golf season and the number of rounds played in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The model projected that as early as the 2020s the average golf season could be one to seven weeks longer and with much improved shoulder seasons annual rounds played could increase 5.5% to 37.1%. The model results for the warmer long-term climate change scenario (2080s) were very similar (average golf season within 3% and average rounds played within 2%) to a spatial climate analogue (Columbus, Ohio).

Exploring potential visitor response to climate-induced environmental changes in Canada's Rocky Mountain national parks.

The scientifi c community and park professionals recognize that climate change could have a substantial impact on the natural landscape of mountain parks worldwide, with important implications for conservation policy and park planning. Little is known however about how tourists may respond to these projected environmental changes. To explore this question in the context of Canada�s Rocky Mountain national parks, a visitor survey was administered (n = 809) in two national parks: Banff and Waterton Lakes. The environmental change scenarios constructed for the early and mid-decades of the 21st century were found to have minimal infl uence on intention to visit. The environmental change scenario for the latter decades, under a high emission climate change scenario, was found to have a negative effect on intention to visit, as 36% of respondents indicated they would visit the parks less often and 25% not at all. Visitors most likely to be negatively affected by climate-induced environmental change were nature-based tourists from overseas, motivated by the opportunity to view mountain landscapes and wildlife. The hitherto largely overlooked conceptual and methodological challenges of understanding how tourists may respond to multidecadal environmental changes induced by global climate change in any tourism setting is also discussed.

Climate change and the future of snowmobiling in non-mountainous regions of Canada

Climate change impact assessments of winter recreation have almost exclusively concentrated on alpine ski industry, overlooking the potentially greater vulnerability of other winter recreation sectors of large economic value. This study presents an empirical assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the multi-billion dollar recreational snowmobiling industry in Canada. A snow depth model was used to examine the potential impact of two climate change scenarios on the length of snowmobiling seasons in the 2020s (2010–2039) and 2050s (2040–69) at 13 non-mountainous study sites in Canada. In the Provinces of Ontario and Québec, which encompass the densest network of snowmobile trails and largest number of registered snowmobiles in the country, average snowmobile seasons in the 2020s were projected to be reduced between 11% and 44% under the low emission climate change scenario and between 39% and 68% under the high emission climate change scenario. Under the high emission scenario for the 2050s, a reliable snowmobiling season would be essentially eliminated from Canadas non-mountainous region. The economic and planning implications of changes in the length of snowmobile seasons are discussed along with future directions for research.