Brian J. Harvey

Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire severity, and postfire tree regeneration in the US Northern Rockies

Significance Understanding how multiple disturbances may interact to affect ecosystems is important for ecosystem management as climate-driven disturbance activity increases. Recent severe bark beetle (Circulionidae: Scolytinae) outbreaks have led to widespread concern about the potential for increased wildfire severity and decreased postfire forest resilience throughout the northern hemisphere. Using extensive field data collected in multiple recent (occurring in 2011) wildfires throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains (United States), we found that recent (2001–2010) prefire mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak severity affected few measures of wildfire severity and was not directly related to postfire tree seedling establishment, suggesting that subalpine forests dominated by serotinous lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) may be resilient to these two combined disturbances. Widespread tree mortality caused by outbreaks of native bark beetles (Circulionidae: Scolytinae) in recent decades has raised concern among scientists and forest managers about whether beetle outbreaks fuel more ecologically severe forest fires and impair postfire resilience. To investigate this question, we collected extensive field data following multiple fires that burned subalpine forests in 2011 throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains across a spectrum of prefire beetle outbreak severity, primarily from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). We found that recent (2001–2010) beetle outbreak severity was unrelated to most field measures of subsequent fire severity, which was instead driven primarily by extreme burning conditions (weather) and topography. In the red stage (0–2 y following beetle outbreak), fire severity was largely unaffected by prefire outbreak severity with few effects detected only under extreme burning conditions. In the gray stage (3–10 y following beetle outbreak), fire severity was largely unaffected by prefire outbreak severity under moderate conditions, but several measures related to surface fire severity increased with outbreak severity under extreme conditions. Initial postfire tree regeneration of the primary beetle host tree [lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia)] was not directly affected by prefire outbreak severity but was instead driven by the presence of a canopy seedbank and by fire severity. Recent beetle outbreaks in subalpine forests affected few measures of wildfire severity and did not hinder the ability of lodgepole pine forests to regenerate after fire, suggesting that resilience in subalpine forests is not necessarily impaired by recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.

Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland–urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

Fire severity and tree regeneration following bark beetle outbreaks: the role of outbreak stage and burning conditions

The degree to which recent bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks may influence fire severity and postfire tree regeneration is of heightened interest to resource managers throughout western North America, but empirical data on actual fire effects are lacking. Outcomes may depend on burning conditions (i.e., weather during fire), outbreak severity, or intervals between outbreaks and subsequent fire. We studied recent fires that burned through green-attack/red-stage (outbreaks <3 years before fire) and gray-stage (outbreaks 3–15 years before fire) subalpine forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine if fire severity was linked to prefire beetle outbreak severity and whether these two disturbances produced compound ecological effects on postfire tree regeneration. With field data from 143 postfire plots that burned under different conditions, we assessed canopy and surface fire severity, and postfire tree seedling density against prefire outbreak severity. In the green-attack/red stage, several canopy fire-severity measures increased with prefire outbreak severity under moderate burning conditions. Under extreme conditions, few fire-severity measures were related to prefire outbreak severity, and effect sizes were of marginal biological significance. The percentage of tree stems and basal area killed by fire increased with more green-attack vs. red-stage trees (i.e., the earliest stages of outbreak). In the gray stage, by contrast, most fire-severity measures declined with increasing outbreak severity under moderate conditions, and fire severity was unrelated to outbreak severity under extreme burning conditions. Postfire lodgepole pine seedling regeneration was unrelated to prefire outbreak severity in either post-outbreak stage, but increased with prefire serotiny. Results suggest bark beetle outbreaks can affect fire severity in subalpine forests under moderate burning conditions, but have little effect on fire severity under extreme burning conditions when most large wildfires occur in this system. Thus, beetle outbreak severity was moderately linked to fire severity, but the strength and direction of the linkage depended on both endogenous (outbreak stage) and exogenous (fire weather) factors. Closely timed beetle outbreak and fire did not impart compound effects on tree regeneration, suggesting the presence of a canopy seedbank may enhance resilience to their combined effects.

Bark beetle effects on fuel profiles across a range of stand structures in Douglas-fir forests of Greater Yellowstone

Consequences of bark beetle outbreaks for forest wildfire potential are receiving heightened attention, but little research has considered ecosystems with mixed-severity fire regimes. Such forests are widespread, variable in stand structure, and often fuel limited, suggesting that beetle outbreaks could substantially alter fire potentials. We studied canopy and surface fuels in interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii v. glauca) forests in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine how fuel characteristics varied with time since outbreak of the Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae). We sampled five stands in each of four outbreak stages, validated for pre-outbreak similarity: green (undisturbed), red (1-3 yr), gray (4-14 yr), and silver (25-30 yr). General linear models were used to compare variation in fuel profiles associated with outbreak to variation associated with the range of stand structures (dense mesic forest to open xeric parkland) characteristic of interior Douglas-fir forest. Beetle outbreak killed 38-83% of basal area within stands, generating a mix of live trees and snags over several years. Canopy fuel load and bulk density began declining in the red stage via needle drop and decreased by approximately 50% by the silver stage. The dead portion of available canopy fuels peaked in the red stage at 41%. After accounting for background variation, there was little effect of beetle outbreak on surface fuels, with differences mainly in herbaceous biomass (50% greater in red stands) and coarse woody fuels (doubled in silver stands). Within-stand spatial heterogeneity of fuels increased with time since outbreak, and surface-to-crown continuity decreased and remained low because of slow/sparse regeneration. Collectively, results suggest reduced fire potentials in post-outbreak stands, particularly for crown fire after the red stage, although abundant coarse fuels in silver stands may increase burn residence time and heat release. Outbreak effects on fuels were comparable to background variation in stand structure. The net effect of beetle outbreak was to shift the structure of mnsic closed-canopy stands toward that of parklands, and to shift xeric parklands toward very sparse woodlands. This study highlights the importance of evaluating outbreak effects in the context of the wide structural variation inherent to many forest types in the absence of beetle disturbance.

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi-regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post-fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985-1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post-fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non-forests after wildfires. Major climate-induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.

Drivers and trends in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire in forests of the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010)

ContextResilience in fire-prone forests is strongly affected by landscape burn-severity patterns, in part by governing propagule availability around stand-replacing patches in which all or most vegetation is killed. However, little is known about drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, or whether such patterns are changing during an era of increased wildfire activity.Objectives(a) Identify key direct/indirect drivers of landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire (e.g., size, shape of patches), (b) test for temporal trends in these patterns, and (c) anticipate thresholds beyond which landscape patterns of burn severity may change fundamentally.MethodsWe applied structural equation modeling to satellite burn-severity maps of fires in the US Northern Rocky Mountains (1984–2010) to test for direct and indirect (via influence on fire size and proportion stand-replacing) effects of climate/weather, vegetation, and topography on landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire. We also tested for temporal trends in landscape patterns.ResultsLandscape patterns of stand-replacing fire were strongly controlled by fire size and proportion stand-replacing, which were, in turn, controlled by climate/weather and vegetation/topography, respectively. From 1984 to 2010, the proportion of stand-replacing fire within burn perimeters increased from 0.22 to 0.27. Trends for other landscape metrics were not significant, but may respond to further increases proportion stand-replacing fire.ConclusionsFires from 1984 to 2010 exhibited tremendous heterogeneity in landscape patterns of stand-replacing fire, likely promoting resilience in burned areas. If trends continue on the current trajectory, however, fires may produce larger and simpler shaped patches of stand-replacing fire with more burned area far from seed sources.

Fire severity unaffected by spruce beetle outbreak in spruce‐fir forests in southwestern Colorado

Recent large and severe outbreaks of native bark beetles have raised concern among the general public and land managers about potential for amplified fire activity in western North America. To date, the majority of studies examining bark beetle outbreaks and subsequent fire severity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have focused on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests, but few studies, particularly field studies, have addressed the effects of the severity of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) infestation on subsequent fire severity in subalpine Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. In Colorado, the annual area infested by spruce beetle outbreaks is rapidly rising, while MPB outbreaks are subsiding; therefore understanding this relationship is of growing importance. We collected extensive field data in subalpine forests in the eastern San Juan Mountains, southwestern Colorado, USA, to investigate whether a gray-stage (< 5 yr from outbreak to time of fire) spruce beetle infestation affected fire severity. Contrary to the expectation that bark beetle infestation alters subsequent fire severity, correlation and multivariate generalized linear regression analysis revealed no influence of pre-fire spruce beetle severity on nearly all field or remotely sensed measurements of fire severity. Findings were consistent across moderate and extreme burning conditions. In comparison to severity of the pre-fire beetle outbreak, we found that topography, pre-outbreak basal area, and weather conditions exerted a stronger effect on fire severity. Our finding that beetle infestation did not alter fire severity is consistent with previous retrospective studies examining fire activity following other bark beetle outbreaks and reiterates the overriding influence of climate that creates conditions conducive to large, high-severity fires in the subalpine zone of Colorado. Both bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires have increased autonomously due to recent climate variability, but this study does not support the expectation that post-beetle outbreak forests will alter fire severity, a result that has important implications for management and policy decisions.

Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment

In the absence of broad-scale disturbance, many temperate coniferous forests experience successful seedling establishment only when abundant seed production coincides with favorable climate. Identifying the frequency of past establishment events and the climate conditions favorable for seedling establishment is essential to understanding how climate warming could affect the frequency of future tree establishment events and therefore future forest composition or even persistence of a forest cover. In the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, research on the sensitivity of establishment of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa)-two widely distributed, co-occurring conifers in North America-to climate variability has focused on the alpine treeline ecotone, leaving uncertainty about the sensitivity of these species across much of their elevation distribution. We compared annual germination dates for >450 Engelmann spruce and >500 subalpine fir seedlings collected across a complex topographic-moisture gradient to climate variability in the Colorado Front Range. We found that Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir established episodically with strong synchrony in establishment events across the study area. Broad-scale establishment events occurred in years of high soil moisture availability, which were characterized by above-average snowpack and/or cool and wet summer climatic conditions. In the recent half of the study period (1975-2010), a decrease in the number of fir and spruce establishment events across their distribution coincided with declining snowpack and a multi-decadal trend of rising summer temperature and increasing moisture deficits. Counter to expected and observed increases in tree establishment with climate warming in maritime subalpine forests, our results show that recruitment declines will likely occur across the core of moisture-limited subalpine tree ranges as warming drives increased moisture deficits.

Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome

Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.Climate change may impact forest disturbances, though local variability is high. Here, Sommerfeld et al. show that disturbance patterns across the temperate biome vary with agents and tree traits, yet large disturbances are consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions.

Stewardship of iconic landscapes in uncertain futures: lessons from the US Rockies and Appalachians

Today’s natural resource scientists are called upon to fulfill their social contract (Lubchenco 1998); that is, to ensure that their science is informed by the world’s most pressing problems, and, in turn, that their science informs societal decisions about solving such problems. For natural resource practitioners, a related challenge can be to find ways to translate the most upto-date science into effective and efficient management, often in the face of shrinking staffs and tightening budgets. The divide between the individually busy worlds of science and management can seem insurmountably wide. In Climate Change in Wildlands: Pioneering Approaches to Science and Management, an expert team of authors with decades of experience in applied conservation science lay out a detailed roadmap to help close this divide. Stemming from a five-year Landscape and Climate Change Vulnerability Project funded by the NASA Earth Science Program, the pages of this book help link scientific understanding to effective management of wildlands in the face of changing climate and land use. Drawing on rich datasets and expert knowledge, the authors provide a ‘‘how-to’’ guide for effective applied conservation science and management by focusing on two illustrative and contrasting wildland regions: the US Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains. The text is organized into four main sections. In brief, the authors outline approaches for climateadaptation planning (Part 1), describe past and future climate and land-use change in each of their two focal regions (Part 2), characterize ecological consequences and vulnerabilities under future scenarios (Part 3), and present case studies of managing for climate change while facing uncertainty (Part 4). Within each of the four sections, chapters are more or less stand-alone manuscripts rather than connected stories that build from one another. This has its benefits, in that readers can jump around to chapters that may be most relevant to them. However, a drawback for readers who are interested in the book in its entirety is that each chapter necessarily repeats much background information on study areas and methods that is already presented elsewhere. In the first section of the book, the authors set the stage for later chapters by describing a broad framework for improving science-management links: the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (Stein et al. 2014). This framework (Chapter 2) forms the core of the outline for the rest of the book: describe climate scenarios, characterize vulnerabilities, and use adaptive management to address uncertainty. In Chapter 3, B. J. Harvey (&) School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA e-mail: bjharvey@uw.edu