Brian LaFranchi

Allocation of Terrestrial Carbon Sources Using 14CO2: Methods, Measurement, and Modeling

The radiocarbon content of whole air provides a theoretically ideal and now observationally proven tracer for recently added fossil-fuel-derived CO2 in the atmosphere (Cff). Over large industrialized land areas, determination of Cff also constrains the change in CO2 due to uptake and release by the terrestrial biosphere. Here, we review the development of a CO2 measurement program and its implementation within the US portion of the NOAA Global Monitoring Division’s air sampling network. The CO2 measurement repeatability is evaluated based on surveillance cylinders of whole air and equates to a Cff detection limit of 0.9 ppm from measurement uncertainties alone. We also attempt to quantify additional sources of uncertainty arising from non-fossil terms in the atmospheric CO2 budget and from uncertainties in the composition of “background” air against which Cff enhancements occur. As an example of how we apply the measurements, we present estimates of the boundary layer enhancements of Cff and Cbio using observations obtained from vertical airborne sampling profiles off of the northeastern US. We also present an updated time series of measurements from NOAA GMD’s Niwot Ridge site at 3475 m asl in Colorado in order to characterize recent CO2 variability in the well-mixed free troposphere.

Estimating methane emissions in California's urban and rural regions using multitower observations

We present an analysis of methane (CH_4) emissions using atmospheric observations from 13 sites in California during June 2013 to May 2014. A hierarchical Bayesian inversion method is used to estimate CH_4 emissions for spatial regions (0.3° pixels for major regions) by comparing measured CH_4 mixing ratios with transport model (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) predictions based on seasonally varying California-specific CH_4 prior emission models. The transport model is assessed using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements coupled with the gridded California Air Resources Board (CARB) CO emission inventory. The hierarchical Bayesian inversion suggests that state annual anthropogenic CH_4 emissions are 2.42 ± 0.49 Tg CH_4/yr (at 95% confidence), higher (1.2–1.8 times) than the current CARB inventory (1.64 Tg CH_4/yr in 2013). It should be noted that undiagnosed sources of errors or uncaptured errors in the model-measurement mismatch covariance may increase these uncertainty bounds beyond that indicated here. The CH_4 emissions from the Central Valley and urban regions (San Francisco Bay and South Coast Air Basins) account for ~58% and 26% of the total posterior emissions, respectively. This study suggests that the livestock sector is likely the major contributor to the state total CH_4 emissions, in agreement with CARBs inventory. Attribution to source sectors for subregions of California using additional trace gas species would further improve the quantification of Californias CH_4 emissions and mitigation efforts toward the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32).

Observations of 14CO2 in ecosystem respiration from a temperate deciduous forest in Northern Wisconsin

The 14CO2 composition of plant and soil respiration can be used to determine the residence time of photosynthetically fixed carbon before it is released back to the atmosphere. To estimate the residence time of actively cycled carbon in a temperate forest, we employed two approaches for estimating the Δ14CO2 of ecosystem respiration (Δ14C-Reco) at the Willow Creek AmeriFlux site in Northern Wisconsin, USA. Our first approach was to construct nighttime Keeling plots from subcanopy profiles of Δ14CO2 and CO2, providing estimates of Δ14C-Reco of 121.7‰ in June and 42.0‰ in August 2012. These measurements are likely dominated by soil fluxes due to proximity to the ground level. Our second approach utilized samples taken over 20 months within the forest canopy and from 396 m above ground level at the nearby LEF NOAA tall tower site (Park Falls, WI). In this canopy-minus-background approach we employed a mixing model described by Miller and Tans (2003) for estimating isotopic sources by subtracting time-varying background conditions. For the period from May 2011 to December 2012 the estimated Δ14C-Reco using the Miller-Tans model was 76.8‰. Together, these Δ14C-Reco values represent mean Reco carbon ages of approximately 1–19 years. We also found that heterotrophic soil-respired Δ 14C at Willow Creek was 5–38‰ higher (i.e., 1–10 years older) than predicted by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach global biosphere carbon model for the 1 × 1 pixel nearest to the site. This study provides much needed observational constraints of ecosystem carbon residence times, which are a major source of uncertainty in terrestrial carbon cycle models.

Estimating methane emissions from biological and fossil-fuel sources in the San Francisco Bay Area

Author(s): Jeong, S; Cui, X; Blake, DR; Miller, B; Montzka, SA; Andrews, A; Guha, A; Martien, P; Bambha, RP; LaFranchi, B; Michelsen, HA; Clements, CB; Glaize, P; Fischer, ML | Abstract: ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We present the first sector-specific analysis of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil-fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH4 and selected VOCs, a source-specific 1 km CH4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH4/yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, 82 ± 27% of total posterior median CH4 emissions are biological and 17 ± 3% fossil fuel, where landfill and natural gas dominate the biological and fossil-fuel CH4 of prior emissions, respectively.

Strong regional atmospheric 14C signature of respired CO2 observed from a tall tower over the midwestern United States

Radiocarbon in CO2 ((CO2)-C-14) measurements can aid in discriminating between fast ( 5-10 years) cycling of C between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere due to the 14C disequilibrium between atmospheric and terrestrial C. However, (CO2)-C-14 in the atmosphere is typically much more strongly impacted by fossil fuel emissions of CO2, and, thus, observations often provide little additional constraints on respiratory flux estimates at regional scales. Here we describe a data set of (CO2)-C-14 observations from a tall tower in northern Wisconsin (USA) where fossil fuel influence is far enough removed that during the summer months, the biospheric component of the (CO2)-C-14 budget dominates. We find that the terrestrial biosphere is responsible for a significant contribution to (CO2)-C-14 that is 2-3 times higher than predicted by the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach terrestrial ecosystem model for observations made in 2010. This likely includes a substantial contribution from the North American boreal ecoregion, but transported biospheric emissions from outside the model domain cannot be ruled out. The (CO2)-C-14 enhancement also appears somewhat decreased in observations made over subsequent years, suggesting that 2010 may be anomalous. With these caveats acknowledged, we discuss the implications of the observation/ model comparison in terms of possible systematic biases in the model versus short-term anomalies in the observations. Going forward, this isotopic signal could be exploited as an important indicator to better constrain both the long-term carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and the short-term impact of disturbance-based loss of carbon to the atmosphere.