Brian Lai

Democracy, Political Similarity, and International Alliances, 1816-1992

The connection between domestic politics and international cooperation, specifically the relationship between regime type and alliance behavior, is examined to test two central hypotheses: democracies are more likely to ally with each other, and states of any similar regime type are more likely to ally with each other. These hypotheses emerge from three theories: constructivism, economic interdependence, and credible commitments. The authors use a data set of all pairs of states from 1816 to 1992. Results show that states with similar regime type are more likely to ally with each other after 1945, although two democracies are not more likely to ally than two autocracies during this period, and distance, learning, threat, and common culture affect alliance behavior, but trade does not. Results indicate sharp limits to the connection between democracy and international cooperation.

“Draining the Swamp”: An Empirical Examination of the Production of International Terrorism, 1968–1998

One central element of the current war on terrorism is “draining the swamps,” addressing conditions within a state that produce international terrorism. This paper empirically examines what factors lead a state to become a “swamp,” drawing on a theoretical approach that guides current U.S. policy. This theory looks at the ability of a state to impose costs on terrorist groups within its own borders. The lower the operating costs within a state, the greater the amount of terrorism produced within that state. Using data on the number of international terrorist events originating from a state from 1968 to 1998, an empirical model incorporating variables designed to test this theoretical argument as well as relevant control variables is employed. Strong support was found for the state strength approach, suggesting that one way to address the threat of international terrorism is to strengthen a governments ability to control its own territory.

The Effect of Civil War on Education, 1980--97

This study examines the negative effects of civil wars and the post-civil war environment on educational expenditures and enrollment. Two causal mechanisms are considered. First, civil wars are likely to destroy a states system of education through the loss of infrastructure and personnel. Second, a less deleterious cause may be the drawing away of funds for increased military expenditures to fight the civil war. Using UNESCO education data, the authors examine the percent change in educational expenditures and primary, secondary, and tertiary enrollment for all states from 1980 through 1997. The authors use a measure of when a state is in a civil war, a dynamic post-civil war measure, an interaction with military spending, and relevant control variables. The results indicate strong support for the notion that civil war is devastating for a system of education, as both expenditures and enrollment decline during periods of civil war. No support was found for the reallocation of education funds towards military spending during a civil war. These results highlight the importance of addressing the social costs of a civil war. Civil wars do not simply impose social costs because of increased funding to the military; rather, they severely disrupt a states ability to provide even basic social services.

Examining the Goals of US Foreign Assistance in the Post-cold War Period, 1991-96

The current literature examining US foreign assistance goals in the post-Cold War period has found that security is declining in importance and that the USA is aiding democracies while also supporting abusers of human rights. This article examines a previously untested neorealist hypothesis about the changing nature of US security goals following the end of the Cold War. Security for the USA, according to neorealists, is changing as the distribution of power changes. This paper also tests hypotheses about different liberal goals the USA might pursue. Finally, this article uses more appropriate and novel methods to test these models, including analysis of what determines when a state initially gets aid and what their initial aid allocation is. Unlike previous studies, security is found to still be important but changing as the balance of power changes after the end of the Cold War. Also, human rights abusers are likely to receive less aid. Finally, this article demonstrates that the econometric methods used to analyze foreign aid data play a large role in discerning what factors actually affect aid decisions.

The Effects of Different Types of Military Mobilization on the Outcome of International Crises

One dominant explanation for why crises escalate to war is based on misperception. Alternative rational explanations for why crises escalate to war are examined, including commitment problems, the cost of revealing military advantages, and a desire for greater future gains. These explanations for war argue that states are likely to prefer a military to a diplomatic solution and to mobilizetheir militaries to maximize a surprise attack advantage. This type of mobilization (private) is different from mobilization by states seeking a diplomatic advantage (public) because states are trying to avoid revealing information. When one state in a crisis mobilizes privately, war is more likely because one state is committed to conflict whereas the other is not receiving signals of an impending conflict. The effect of private mobilization on war is tested using the International Crisis Behavior data. The results demonstrate that private mobilization is likely to lead to war.

Democratic Progress and Regress: The Effect of Parties on the Transitions of States to and Away from Democracy

This article examines how political parties and party competition affect the likelihood of nations becoming and remaining democracies. While many scholars have long assumed that this is the case, the roles of parties and party competition are indeed affected, such a likelihood has rarely been examined rigorously in cross-national evaluations. In addition to examining the links between parties and political transitions, our analysis controls for other factors purported to have a significant effect on democratization. To test the effects of parties and party competition on the transition to and survival of democracies and autocracies, this article utilizes event history analysis on all countries in political transition between the years of 1950-1992, using three different measures of democracy. Through this multifaceted and unique approach, we are able to demonstrate that across all three measures of democracy, parties do indeed play an important role in causing authoritarian states to transition to democracy and helping democratic nations remain democracies.