Brian McCloskey

Hajj: infectious disease surveillance and control

Summary Religious festivals attract a large number of pilgrims from worldwide and are a potential risk for the transmission of infectious diseases between pilgrims, and to the indigenous population. The gathering of a large number of pilgrims could compromise the health system of the host country. The threat to global health security posed by infectious diseases with epidemic potential shows the importance of advanced planning of public health surveillance and response at these religious events. Saudi Arabia has extensive experience of providing health care at mass gatherings acquired through decades of managing millions of pilgrims at the Hajj. In this report, we describe the extensive public health planning, surveillance systems used to monitor public health risks, and health services provided and accessed during Hajj 2012 and Hajj 2013 that together attracted more than 5 million pilgrims from 184 countries. We also describe the recent establishment of the Global Center for Mass Gathering Medicine, a Saudi Government partnership with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Mass Gatherings Medicine, Gulf Co-operation Council states, UK universities, and public health institutions globally.

Infectious disease surveillance and modelling across geographic frontiers and scientific specialties.

Infectious disease surveillance for mass gatherings (MGs) can be directed locally and globally; however, epidemic intelligence from these two levels is not well integrated. Modelling activities related to MGs have historically focused on crowd behaviours around MG focal points and their relation to the safety of attendees. The integration of developments in internet-based global infectious disease surveillance, transportation modelling of populations travelling to and from MGs, mobile phone technology for surveillance during MGs, metapopulation epidemic modelling, and crowd behaviour modelling is important for progress in MG health. Integration of surveillance across geographic frontiers and modelling across scientific specialties could produce the first real-time risk monitoring and assessment platform that could strengthen awareness of global infectious disease threats before, during, and immediately after MGs. An integrated platform of this kind could help identify infectious disease threats of international concern at the earliest stages possible; provide insights into which diseases are most likely to spread into the MG; help with anticipatory surveillance at the MG; enable mathematical modelling to predict the spread of infectious diseases to and from MGs; simulate the effect of public health interventions aimed at different local and global levels; serve as a foundation for scientific research and innovation in MG health; and strengthen engagement between the scientific community and stakeholders at local, national, and global levels.

Establishing an emergency department syndromic surveillance system to support the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games

Background The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games is a mass gathering event that will present a major public health challenge. The Health Protection Agency, in collaboration with the College of Emergency Medicine, has established the Emergency Department Sentinel Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) to support the public health surveillance requirements of the Games. Methods This feasibility study assesses the usefulness of EDSSS in monitoring indicators of disease in the community. Daily counts of anonymised attendance data from six emergency departments across England were analysed by patient demographics (age, gender, partial postcode), triage coding and diagnosis codes. Generic and specific syndromic indicators were developed using aggregations of diagnosis codes recorded during each attendance. Results Over 339 000 attendances were recorded (26 July 2010 to 25 July 2011). The highest attendances recorded on weekdays between 10:00 and 11:00 and on weekends between 12:00 and 13:00. The mean daily attendance per emergency department was 257 (range 38–435). Syndromic indicators were developed including: respiratory, gastrointestinal, cardiac, acute respiratory infection, gastroenteritis and myocardial ischaemia. Respiratory and acute respiratory infection indicators peaked during December 2010, concomitant with national influenza activity, as monitored through other influenza surveillance systems. Conclusions The EDSSS has been established to provide an enhanced surveillance system for the London 2012 Olympics. Further validation of the data will be required; however, the results from this initial descriptive study demonstrate the potential for identifying unusual and/or severe outbreaks of infectious disease, or other incidents with public health impact, within the community.

London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games: public health surveillance and epidemiology.

Summary Mass gatherings are regarded as potential risks for transmission of infectious diseases, and might compromise the health system of countries in which they are hosted. The evidence for increased transmission of infectious diseases at international sporting mass gatherings that attract many visitors from all over the world is not clear, and the evidence base for public health surveillance, epidemiology, and response at events such as the Olympics is small. However, infectious diseases are a recognised risk, and public health planning is, and should remain, a crucial part of the overall planning of sporting events. In this Series paper, we set out the planning and the surveillance systems that were used to monitor public health risks during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games in the summer of 2012, and draw attention to the public health issues—infectious diseases and chemical, radiation, and environmental hazards—that arose. Although the absolute risk of health-protection problems, including infectious diseases, at sporting mass gatherings is small, the need for reassurance of the absence of problems is higher than has previously been considered; this could challenge conventional public health surveillance systems. Recognition of the limitations of health-surveillance systems needs to be part of the planning for future sporting events.

Emerging infectious diseases and pandemic potential: status quo and reducing risk of global spread.

Summary Emerging infectious diseases are an important public health threat and infections with pandemic potential are a major global risk. Although much has been learned from previous events the evidence for mitigating actions is not definitive and pandemic preparedness remains a political and scientific challenge. A need exists to develop trust and effective meaningful collaboration between countries to help with rapid detection of potential pandemic infections and initiate public health actions. This collaboration should be within the framework of the International Health Regulations. Collaboration between countries should be encouraged in a way that acknowledges the benefits that derive from sharing biological material and establishing equitable collaborative research partnerships. The focus of pandemic preparedness should include upstream prevention through better collaboration between human and animal health sciences to enhance capacity to identify potential pathogens before they become serious human threats, and to prevent their emergence where possible. The one-health approach provides a means to develop this and could potentially enhance alignment of global health and trade priorities.

Using real-time syndromic surveillance to assess the health impact of the 2013 heatwave in England.

Heatwaves are a seasonal threat to public health. During July 2013 England experienced a heatwave; we used a suite of syndromic surveillance systems to monitor the impact of the heatwave. Significant increases in heatstroke and sunstroke were observed during 7-10 July 2013. Syndromic surveillance provided an innovative and effective service, supporting heatwave planning and providing early warning of the impact of extreme heat thereby improving the public health response to heatwaves.

Euro 2012 European Football Championship Finals: planning for a health legacy

The revised international health regulations offer a framework that can be used by host countries to organise public health activities for mass gatherings. From June 8, to July 1, 2012, Poland and Ukraine jointly hosted the Union of European Football Associations European Football Championship Finals (Euro 2012). More than 8 million people from around the world congregated to watch the games. Host countries and international public health agencies planned extensively to assess and build capacity in the host countries and to develop effective strategies for dissemination of public health messages. The effectiveness of public health services was maximised through rapid sharing of information between parties, early use of networks of experienced individuals, and the momentum of existing national health programmes. Organisers of future mass gatherings for sporting events should share best practice and their experiences through the WHO International Observer Program. Research about behaviour of large crowds is needed for crowd management and the evidence base translated into practice. A framework to measure and evaluate the legacy of Euro 2012 is needed based on the experiences and the medium-term and long-term benefits of the tournament.

Developing a new syndromic surveillance system for the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games

Syndromic surveillance is vital for monitoring public health during mass gatherings. The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games represents a major challenge to health protection services and community surveillance. In response to this challenge the Health Protection Agency has developed a new syndromic surveillance system that monitors daily general practitioner out-of-hours and unscheduled care attendances. This new national system will fill a gap identified in the existing general practice-based syndromic surveillance systems by providing surveillance capability of general practice activity during evenings/nights, over weekends and public holidays. The system will complement and supplement the existing tele-health phone line, general practitioner and emergency department syndromic surveillance systems. This new national system will contribute to improving public health reassurance, especially to meet the challenges of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The impact of thunderstorm asthma on emergency department attendances across London during July 2013

Background This study illustrates the potential of using emergency department attendance data, routinely accessed as part of a national syndromic surveillance system, to monitor the impact of thunderstorm asthma. Methods The Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) routinely monitors anonymised attendance data on a daily basis across a sentinel network of 35 emergency departments. Attendance data for asthma, wheeze and difficulty breathing are analysed on a daily basis. Results A statistically significant spike in asthma attendances in two EDSSS emergency departments in London was detected on 23 July 2013, coinciding with a series of large violent thunderstorms across southern England. There was also an increase in the reported severity of these attendances. Conclusions This preliminary report illustrates the potential of the EDSSS to monitor the impact of thunderstorms on emergency department asthma attendances. Further work will focus on how this system can be used to quantify the impact on emergency departments, thus potentially improving resource planning and also adding to the thunderstorm asthma evidence-base.

Host-directed therapies for improving poor treatment outcomes associated with the middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus infections

Summary Three years after its first discovery in Jeddah Saudi Arabia, the novel zoonotic pathogen of humans, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) continues to be a major threat to global health security. 1 Sporadic community acquired cases of MERS continue to be reported from the Middle East. The recent nosocomial outbreaks in hospitals in Seoul, Korea and at the National Guard Hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia indicate the epidemic potential of MERS-CoV. Currently there are no effective anti-MERS-CoV anti-viral agents or therapeutics and MERS is associated with a high mortality rate (40%) in hospitalised patients. A large proportion of MERS patients who die have a range of pulmonary pathology ranging from pneumonia to adult respiratory distress syndrome with multi-organ failure, compounded by co-morbidities, reflecting a precarious balance of interactions between the host-immune system and MERS-CoV. Whilst we wait for new MERS-CoV specific drugs, therapeutics and vaccines to be developed, there is a need to advance a range of Host-Directed Therapies. A range of HDTs are available, including commonly used drugs with good safety profiles, which could augment host innate and adaptive immune mechanisms to MERS-CoV, modulate excessive inflammation and reduce lung tissue destruction. We discuss the rationale and potential of using Host-Directed Therapies for improving the poor treatment outcomes associated with MERS. Carefully designed randomized controlled trials will be needed to determine whether HDTs could benefit patients with MERS. The recurrent outbreaks of MERS-CoV infections at hospitals in the Middle East present unique opportunities to conduct randomized clinical trials. The time has come for a more coordinated global response to MERS and a multidisciplinary global MERS-CoV response group is required to take forward priority research agendas.