Mike Catchpole

The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom.

We analyzed data on all laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1pdm influenza in the UK to 10th June 2009 to estimate epidemiological characteristics. We estimated a mean incubation period of 2.05 days and serial interval of 2.5 days with infectivity peaking close to onset of symptoms. Transmission was initially sporadic but increased from mid-May in England and from early June in Scotland. We estimated 37% of transmission occurred in schools, 24% in households, 28% through travel abroad and the remainder in the wider community. Children under 16 were more susceptible to infection in the household (adjusted OR 5.80, 95% CI 2.99-11.82). Treatment with oseltamivir plus widespread use of prophylaxis significantly reduced transmission (estimated reduction 16%). Households not receiving oseltamivir within 3 days of symptom onset in the index case had significantly increased secondary attack rates (adjusted OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.51-8.55).

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus outbreak in a school in London, April–May 2009: an observational study

On 29 April 2009, an imported case of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection was detected in a London school. As further cases, pupils and staff members were identified, school closure and mass prophylaxis were implemented. An observational descriptive study was conducted to provide an insight into the clinical presentation and transmission dynamics in this setting. Between 15 April and 15 May 2009, 91 symptomatic cases were identified: 33 were confirmed positive for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection; 57 were tested negative; in one the results were unavailable. Transmission occurred first within the school, and subsequently outside. Attack rates were 2% in pupils (15% in the 11-12 years age group) and 17% in household contacts. The predominant symptoms were fever (97%), respiratory symptoms (91%), and sore throat (79%). Limited spread in the school may have been due to a combination of school closure and mass prophylaxis. However, transmission continued through household contacts to other schools.

Public information needs after the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko with polonium-210 in London: cross sectional telephone survey and qualitative analysis

Objectives To identify public perceptions of the risk to health after the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko with polonium-210 (210Po) in London and to assess the impact of public health communications. Design Cross sectional telephone survey and qualitative interviews. Setting London, United Kingdom. Participants 1000 people completed the cross sectional survey and 86 potentially exposed people completed the qualitative interviews. Main outcome measures Perception of risk to personal health after the 210Po incident. Qualitative interviews were analysed with an emphasis on information needs. Results 11.7% of the survey sample (n=117) perceived their health to be at risk. Aside from personal variables the main predictors of perceived risk to health were believing that the incident was related to terrorism (odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 4.6) rather than to espionage, that it was targeted at the wider public rather than one person (5.9, 3.2 to 10.9), and that it could affect people who had not been in the contaminated area (3.2, 2.1 to 5.1). Participants in the qualitative interviews were generally satisfied with the information they had received, although they would have preferred more information about their individual risk of exposure, the results of their urine tests, and the health implications of the incident. Conclusions Perceptions of the public that the 210Po incident in London in 2006 was related to espionage helped to reassure them that the risks to personal health were low. In the event of future incidents it is important to ensure that detailed, comprehensible information about the risks of any exposure is available.

Establishing an emergency department syndromic surveillance system to support the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games

Background The London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games is a mass gathering event that will present a major public health challenge. The Health Protection Agency, in collaboration with the College of Emergency Medicine, has established the Emergency Department Sentinel Syndromic Surveillance System (EDSSS) to support the public health surveillance requirements of the Games. Methods This feasibility study assesses the usefulness of EDSSS in monitoring indicators of disease in the community. Daily counts of anonymised attendance data from six emergency departments across England were analysed by patient demographics (age, gender, partial postcode), triage coding and diagnosis codes. Generic and specific syndromic indicators were developed using aggregations of diagnosis codes recorded during each attendance. Results Over 339 000 attendances were recorded (26 July 2010 to 25 July 2011). The highest attendances recorded on weekdays between 10:00 and 11:00 and on weekends between 12:00 and 13:00. The mean daily attendance per emergency department was 257 (range 38–435). Syndromic indicators were developed including: respiratory, gastrointestinal, cardiac, acute respiratory infection, gastroenteritis and myocardial ischaemia. Respiratory and acute respiratory infection indicators peaked during December 2010, concomitant with national influenza activity, as monitored through other influenza surveillance systems. Conclusions The EDSSS has been established to provide an enhanced surveillance system for the London 2012 Olympics. Further validation of the data will be required; however, the results from this initial descriptive study demonstrate the potential for identifying unusual and/or severe outbreaks of infectious disease, or other incidents with public health impact, within the community.

Hospitalization in two waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England

Uncertainties exist regarding the population risks of hospitalization due to pandemic influenza A(H1N1). Understanding these risks is important for patients, clinicians and policy makers. This study aimed to clarify these uncertainties. A national surveillance system was established for patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in England. Information was captured on demographics, pre-existing conditions, treatment and outcomes. The relative risks of hospitalization associated with pre-existing conditions were estimated by combining the captured data with population prevalence estimates. A total of 2416 hospitalizations were reported up to 6 January 2010. Within the population, 4·7 people/100,000 were hospitalized with pandemic influenza A(H1N1). The estimated hospitalization rate of cases showed a U-shaped distribution with age. Chronic kidney disease, chronic neurological disease, chronic respiratory disease and immunosuppression were each associated with a 10- to 20-fold increased risk of hospitalization. Patients who received antiviral medication within 48 h of symptom onset were less likely to be admitted to critical care than those who received them after this time (adjusted odds ratio 0·64, 95% confidence interval 0·44-0·94, P=0·024). In England the risk of hospitalization with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has been concentrated in the young and those with pre-existing conditions. By quantifying these risks, this study will prove useful in planning for the next winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, and for future pandemics.

London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games: public health surveillance and epidemiology.

Summary Mass gatherings are regarded as potential risks for transmission of infectious diseases, and might compromise the health system of countries in which they are hosted. The evidence for increased transmission of infectious diseases at international sporting mass gatherings that attract many visitors from all over the world is not clear, and the evidence base for public health surveillance, epidemiology, and response at events such as the Olympics is small. However, infectious diseases are a recognised risk, and public health planning is, and should remain, a crucial part of the overall planning of sporting events. In this Series paper, we set out the planning and the surveillance systems that were used to monitor public health risks during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games in the summer of 2012, and draw attention to the public health issues—infectious diseases and chemical, radiation, and environmental hazards—that arose. Although the absolute risk of health-protection problems, including infectious diseases, at sporting mass gatherings is small, the need for reassurance of the absence of problems is higher than has previously been considered; this could challenge conventional public health surveillance systems. Recognition of the limitations of health-surveillance systems needs to be part of the planning for future sporting events.

Universal HIV testing in London tuberculosis clinics: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

We assessed whether implementation of a combination of interventions in London tuberculosis clinics raised the levels of HIV test offers, acceptance and coverage. A stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted across 24 clinics. Interventions were training of clinical staff and provision of tailor-made information resources with or without a change in clinic policy from selective to universal HIV testing. The primary outcome was HIV test acceptance amongst those offered a test, before and after the intervention; the secondary outcome was an offer of HIV testing. Additionally, the number and proportion of HIV tests among all clinic attendees (coverage) was assessed. 1,315 patients were seen in 24 clinics. The offer and coverage of testing rose significantly in clinics without (p = 0.002 and p = 0.004, respectively) and with an existing policy of universal testing (p = 0.02 and p = 0.04, respectively). However, the level of HIV test acceptance did not increase in 18 clinics without routine universal testing (p = 0.76) or the six clinics with existing universal testing (p = 0.40). The intervention significantly increased the number of HIV tests offered and proportion of participants tested, although acceptance did not change significantly. However, the magnitude of increase is modest due to the high baseline coverage.

Estimating time to onset of swine influenza symptoms after initial novel A(H1N1v) viral infection

Characterization of the incubation time from infection to onset is important for understanding the natural history of infectious diseases. Attempts to estimate the incubation time distribution for novel A(H1N1v) have been, up to now, based on limited data or peculiar samples. We characterized this distribution for a generic group of symptomatic cases using laboratory-confirmed swine influenza case-information. Estimates of the incubation distribution for the pandemic influenza were derived through parametric time-to-event analyses of data on onset of symptoms and exposure dates, accounting for interval censoring. We estimated a mean of about 1·6-1·7 days with a standard deviation of 2 days for the incubation time distribution in those who became symptomatic after infection with the A(H1N1v) virus strain. Separate analyses for the <15 years and ≥ 15 years age groups showed a significant (P<0·02) difference with a longer mean incubation time in the older age group.

International infectious disease surveillance during the London Olympic and Paralympic Games 2012: process and outcomes.

Surveillance for possible international infectious disease threats to the Olympic and Paralympic Games in London, United Kingdom, was conducted from 2 July to 12 September 2012 by a collaborative team comprising representatives from the Health Protection Agency (Public Health England since April 2013), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the National Travel Health Network and Centre. Team members enhanced their usual international surveillance activities and undertook joint risk assessments of incidents identified as relevant through an agreed set of criteria designed for the Games and using tools developed for this purpose. Although team members responded to a range of international disease incidents as part of their routine roles during this period, no incident was identified that represented a threat to the Games. Six incidents were highlighted by the team that were likely to attract media attention and hence could generate political and public concern. Responding to such concern is an important aspect of the overall public health management of mass gathering events. The lessons learned about the process and outcomes of the enhanced international surveillance will help inform planning by future hosts of similar events.

A controlled trial of the knowledge impact of tuberculosis information leaflets among staff supporting substance misusers: pilot study.

Background Information leaflets are widely used to increase awareness and knowledge of disease. Limited research has, to date, been undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of these information resources. This pilot study sought to determine whether information leaflets developed specifically for staff working with substance mis-users improved knowledge of tuberculosis (TB). Method Staffs working with individuals affected by substance mis-use were recruited between January and May 2008. All participants were subjectively allocated by their line manager either to receive the TB-specific leaflet or a control leaflet providing information on mental health. Level of knowledge of TB was assessed using questionnaires before and after the intervention and data analysed using McNemars exact test for matched pairs. Results The control group showed no evidence of a change in knowledge of TB, whereas the TB questionnaire group demonstrated a significant increase in knowledge including TB being curable (81% correct before to 100% correct after), length of treatment required (42% before to 73% after), need to support direct observation (18% to 62%) and persistent fever being a symptom (56% to 87%). Among key workers, who have a central role in implementing a care plan, 88% reported never receiving any TB awareness-raising intervention prior to this study, despite 11% of all respondents having TB diagnosed among their clients. Conclusion Further randomized controlled trials are required to confirm the observed increase in short-term gain in knowledge and to investigate whether knowledge gain leads to change in health status.