Brian S. Fisher

Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas

The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy–economy–climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy–economy–climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from −2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from −0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

Use of El Nino climate forecasts in Australia

ABARE project 1555 The linking of seasonal climate forecasting to agricultural models and decision support tools is receiving considerable attention in Australia. The emphasis on developing these linkages is justified given the importance of agriculture to export earnings and to the Australian economy, and given the extreme variability of weather patterns, particularly of rainfall, in the agricultural areas of Australia.

The climate change negotiations: the case for differentiation

The major elements of the climate change negotiations since the negotiation in 1995 of the Berlin Mandate to the Framework Convention on Climate Change are outlined and background on the greenhouse effect is provided in this article. It is shown that the same uniform emission reduction target for all countries is inefficient and that such targets would not lead to an equal sharing of the economic burden of achieving a given commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is concluded that the negotiation of differentiated targets can help to solve this problem.

Cost Pooling in Australian Grain Handling: A Common Property Analysis

The common property analysis of Rausser, Zusman, and Foster is expanded and applied to Australian grain transportation systems. With a conservative decision rule, a statically inefficient cost pooling system may lead to optimal investment decisions as benefits become pooled. With Ramsey pricing in contrast, losers may veto many investment decisions, so that allocations become ‘equitable’ but technically inefficient. Efficiency gains from price policy reform may not be achieved unless accompanied by property right reallocation.

Prospects for nuclear power in Australia and New Zealand

The nuclear debate in Australia was recently enlivened by a Federal Government report (released in December 2006) on the economic viability of nuclear power as an option for electricity generation. Given the nations large reserves of coal and gas, the question of the role of nuclear power rests to a large extent on future climate policy. Australia has the worlds largest reserves of uranium and is currently the second largest producer and exporter of the resource in the world. There may be some scope in the future for Australia to expand its nuclear industry to include enrichment and reprocessing activities.

Negotiating greenhouse abatement and the theory of public goods

The initial qualified commitment of Annex 1 countries under the Framework Convention on Climate Change to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels showed little regard for economic considerations. Unilateral stabilization could impose markedly different costs on different countries and is not a cost minimizing approach to abatement. However, as negotiations have progressed and the problem has been increasingly studied, economic considerations have become more prominent. A number of countries now support differentiated targets to take account of the special economic circumstances of different economies and an emission trading scheme has been proposed in policy negotiations.

Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: climate change policy and energy transition

The Australian and New Zealand agricultural and resource economics profession has made a significant contribution in the field of climate policy and analysis of the energy sector. Much of this contribution has been based on quantitative economic modelling which had its roots in the earlier computable general equilibrium modelling on domestic policy and trade in which the profession was heavily involved from the 1970s onwards. By far the largest share of model development and analysis has been sponsored by government and conducted in the public sector, but in more recent years, there has been some shift into the private sector. However, the trend to the use of much more complex integrated assessment models in assessing the impacts of climate change and responses to new policy instruments raises the issue of whether more government support of quantitative modelling will be required in future.