Brigitte Granville

Fisher hypothesis: UK evidence over a century

Using annual data over a long time horizon from 1900 to 2000 for the UK, this study finds the existence of a Fisher relation via Johansen cointegration tests. The cointegrating relationship between the two variables suggests a significant long-run equilibrium with a positive coefficient of more than one during the stated period.

The rural/urban wage gap in the industrialisation of Russia, 1884–1910

This article presents econometric evidence of integration in rural and urban wages in Russias Northwest in the late tsarist era. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and error correction modelling, we show the flexibility of the rural wage in response to the lagged rural/urban wage ratio. Applying the model developed by Boyer and Hatton (1994) and Hatton and Williamson (1991a, 1991b, 1992), we show the similarity of the wage gap in northwest Russia in the late tsarist era to that during industrialisation in the US, England and Western Europe. Although our evidence does not necessarily describe countrywide trends, it does support for an industrialising region the more positive view of the degree and nature of late tsarist economic growth. Growth was not slowing down, and there is little evidence of constraints on migration by traditional agrarian institutions.

How best to link poverty reduction and debt sustainability in IMF–World Bank models?

This paper attempts to provide an economic model in the context of developing countries to address the policy strategies related to poverty reduction. With a view to deal with the shortcomings of the existing approaches as regards poverty reduction, this paper develops a model on the basis of the policy framework of the IMF and the World Bank to show how demand growth can be a crucial mechanism in determining the potential rate of growth, and then to suggest ways in which poverty—conceptualised officially in absolute terms with a subjective cut‐off point (e.g. US

The new Eastern Europe : western responses

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Bingo or fiasco? The global financial situation is not guaranteed

2 a day), and a new objective measure in terms of consumption deprivation—can be linked with the key policy variables contained in the adjustment programmes. A strategy of investment in infrastructure and in human development, and improving access to credit markets, particularly in rural areas to encourage or ‘crowd in’ private investment is a precondition for growth and poverty alleviation. Debt relief can only provide a temporary, not a sustainable, solution to the problem of reducing poverty.

Pension reforms and saving gains in the United Kingdom

Overview the political context the economic context the policy agenda in the East the role of the Soviet Union Western policy - the room for manoeuvre Western policy action.

Progress Towards Financial Stability

The 1998 Russian debt default following the Asian financial crisis sent a signal to global capital markets that no country from now on could be seen as ‘too big to fail’. The concern which followed Russia’s crisis raised two questions: first, with regard to the relevance of the interest rate in the presence of highly lever-aged securities; and second, over the question of the protection of a country or institution from bankruptcy while simultaneously making sure that any rescue would not encourage either further risk-taking from investors or more badly managed policies from emerging market economies. Moreover, the moral hazard question, coupled with the sheer size of private capital flows, led international institutions to consider involving the private sector in solving financial crises. This article describes why a situation has now been reached where no future guarantee can be given to countries or financial institutions, implicitly or explicitly, that their debts will be bailed out.

Conflicting Incentives for Public Support for EMU

The empirical validity of the effect of pension reforms on domestic savings in the UK has been investigated using an Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model capable of testing for the existence of a long-run relationship regardless of whether the underlying time series are individually I(1) or I(0). The total savings response to change in pension savings is positive and significant, but an increase in occupational pension saving appears offset by a decrease in other forms of saving. This paper concludes that there is no firm evidence that aggregate savings increase considerably because of privately funded pension schemes.The empirical validity of the effect of pension reforms on domestic savings in the UK has been investigated using an Auto‐regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model capable of testing for the existence of a long‐run relationship regardless of whether the underlying time series are individually I(1) or I(0). The total savings response to change in pension savings is positive and significant, but an increase in occupational pension saving appears offset by a decrease in other forms of saving. This paper concludes that there is no firm evidence that aggregate savings increase considerably because of privately funded pension schemes.

Capital in the twenty first century

Russian Banking considers the rise of commercial market-oriented banks in Russia, their links with government and non-financial companies and their role as intermediaries in the provision of finance for investment. The contributors explore the legacy of the Soviet past and current functions of the Russian banking system, contrasting these with those in other post-communist societies and describing peculiarities such as informal networks and corruption.

Monetary and Financial Stability in the Euro Area: Pro-Cyclicality Versus Trade-Off

This paper studies the how government policy can influence positively public attitudes towards the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).