Sushanta Mallick

Export Premium, Self‐selection and Learning‐by‐Exporting: Evidence from Chinese Matched Firms

This study empirically focuses on examining the hypotheses of export premium (exporters are more productive than non-exporters), selection-into-exporting (more productive firms are ones that tend to become exporters) and learning-by-exporting (new export market entrants have higher productivity growth than non-exporters in the post-entry period). The propensity score matching method is used to adjust for observable differences of firm characteristics between exporters and non-exporters, allowing an adequate ‘like-for-like’ comparison. We also use the difference-in-difference matching estimator to capture the magnitude of different productivity growth between matched new export market entrants and non-exporters in the post-entry period up to two years. Drawing on 2,340 Chinese firms in the period 2000–02, we find evidence for export premium and self-selection, and once the firm has entered the export market there is additional productivity growth from the learning effect, in particular in the second year after entry.

Real effects of monetary policy in large emerging economies

This paper provides evidence on monetary policy transmission for five key emerging market economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Monetary policy (interest rate) shocks are identified using modern Bayesian methods along with the more recent sign restrictions approach. We find that contractionary monetary policy has a strong and negative effect on output. We also show that such contractionary monetary policy shocks do tend to stabilize inflation in these countries in the short term, while producing a strongly persistent negative effect on real equity prices. Overall, the impulse responses are robust to the alternative identification procedures.

Passthrough of Exchange Rate and Tariffs into Import Prices of India: Currency Depreciation Versus Import Liberalization

This paper examines the extent of pass-through of exchange rate and tariff changes into import prices using sectoral panel data (at the 2-digit SITC level) for the post-reform period in India (1990-2001). After having controlled for unobserved effects that might have an impact on the import prices by using sector dummies, we find that on average exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) is a dominant effect compared to tariff rate pass-through (TRPT) in explaining changes in India’s import prices. The sectoral panel results suggest that the pass-through of exchange rates and tariff rates varies across products. ERPT into import prices is significant in 12 industries, whereas TRPT is significant only in 6 industries, with full pass-through. However, ERPT is incomplete only in 4 industries, but TRPT is incomplete in 36 industries, which means that firms exporting to India more frequently adopt strategies to maintain their market share against tariffs than against exchange rate changes. The sectoral differences in pass-through seem to be related to the sector’s share in total imports and the sector’s effective protection rate. Hence India’s relatively high levels of protection have an impact on the behaviour of foreign exporters.

Fisher hypothesis: UK evidence over a century

Using annual data over a long time horizon from 1900 to 2000 for the UK, this study finds the existence of a Fisher relation via Johansen cointegration tests. The cointegrating relationship between the two variables suggests a significant long-run equilibrium with a positive coefficient of more than one during the stated period.

Foreign Capital in a Growth Model

Within the mechanism of endogenous growth, this paper empirically investigates the impact of financial capital on economic growth for a panel of 60 developing countries, through the channel of domestic capital formation. By estimating the model for different income groups, it is found that while private FDI flows exert beneficial complementarity effects on the domestic capital formation across all income-group countries, the official financial flows contribute to increasing investment in the middle income economies, but not in the low income countries. The latter appears to demonstrate that the aid-growth nexus is supported in the middle income countries, whereas the misallocation of official inflows is more likely to exist in the low income countries, suggesting that aid effectiveness remains conditional on the domestic policy environment.

Productivity Performance of Export Market Entry and Exit: Evidence from Indian Firms

This paper contributes to the literature on exporting and firm productivity, focusing on export entry (efficiency), learning (post-entry growth) and exit (inefficiency) by Indian firms. Drawing on 7000 firms during 1989–2009, our main objective is to examine the effect of exporting on firm productivity, correcting for selection bias using propensity-score matching, which allows a “like-for-like” comparison between new exporters and nonexporters. Robust to different matching estimators, we find evidence of learning-by-exporting that new exporters acquire rapid productivity growth after entry, relative to nonexporters. We also find that (1) exporters are more productive than nonexporters; (2) productive firms tend to self-select in entering the exporting market, and (3) least productive exporters are found to exit the export market as they experience adverse productivity effect prior to the year of exit. Our robust result on learning-by-exporting suggests that entering export market does appear to be a channel explaining the Indian recent growth miracle.

Identifying Sources of Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the UK

Using quarterly data for the period 1985:1–2011:1, this paper uses a stylised, open economy, structural VAR model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the UK economy. The stylised model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow for the identification of the shocks. The importance of each shock is determined by examining forecast-error variance decompositions, impulse response functions, and implied long-run (or permanent) effects. The results presented here imply that two shocks (called the technology and IS shocks) are relatively more important than other shocks. Monetary shocks do exhibit long-run monetary neutrality, but clearly monetary policy is not responsible for a meaningful share of output and employment fluctuations during the sample period. The estimated VAR and structural disturbances imply that the model accurately reflects the UK economy. There is little evidence of a price puzzle or an exchange rate puzzle (evidence against uncovered interest rate parity) in response to an unexpected monetary policy tightening.

Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment with Growth: Some Simulation Results

This paper examines the impact of several macroeconomic policies, both demand and supply management policies, on economic activity within a small macroeconomic simulation model. The model is based on a standard analytical framework that underlies adjustment policies in developing economies (Des). The standard approach has been to use aggregate government expenditure as an instrument of fiscal policy to shock economic activity in a DE, with a negative dynamic response typically observed. In the context of such a small macroeconomic simulation model we decompose government expenditure into consumption and investment expenditure. Simulation exercises with and without model-consistent expectations throw up some contrasting results in the sense that fiscal policy can influence output positively through the effects of public sector investment on private investment in a DE such as India. [F43, E62]This paper examines the impact of several macroeconomic policies, both demand and supply management policies, on economic activity within a small macroeconomic simulation model. The model is based on a standard analytical framework that underlies adjustment policies in developing economies (Des). The standard approach has been to use aggregate government expenditure as an instrument of fiscal policy to shock economic activity in a DE, with a negative dynamic response typically observed. In the context of such a small macroeconomic simulation model we decompose government expenditure into consumption and investment expenditure. Simulation exercises with and without model-consistent expectations throw up some contrasting results in the sense that fiscal policy can influence output positively through the effects of public sector investment on private investment in a DE such as India. [F43, E62]

The impact of information technology on the banking industry

This paper analyses the effects of investment in information technologies (IT) in the banking sector using bank-level data from a panel of 68 US banks over the period 1986–2005. Although IT can improve banks performance by reducing operational cost (supply side), it can bring in competition among banks in order to embrace new technology (demand side). Since most empirical studies have adopted the production function approach, it is difficult to identify which effect has dominated. In a differentiated model with network effects, this paper characterizes the conditions to identify these two effects. The results suggest that (at individual firm levels) the bank profits can decline due to adoption and diffusion of IT investment, reflecting negative network competition effects in this industry. Using panel cointegration tests, we confirm that the estimated profit equation is indeed a long-run equilibrium relation.

Fiscal policy in the BRICs

Abstract This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy shocks for four key emerging market economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) – using a fully simultaneous system of equations. We also estimate fiscal policy rules and analyze the importance of nonlinearity using a smooth transition (STR) model. Drawing on quarterly data, we find that government spending shocks have strong Keynesian effects for this group of countries while, in the case of government revenue shocks, a tax hike is harmful for output. This suggests that there is no evidence in favor of “expansionary fiscal contraction” in the context of emerging economies where spending policies are largely pro-cyclical. Our findings also show that considerations about growth (in the case of China), exchange rate and inflation (for Brazil and Russia) and commodity prices (in India) drive the nonlinear response of fiscal policy to the dynamics of the economy.