Brigitte Tenhumberg

IMPROVING PRECISION AND REDUCING BIAS IN BIOLOGICAL SURVEYS: ESTIMATING FALSE-NEGATIVE ERROR RATES

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors. In general, when error rates are ≤50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

Syrphids as natural enemies of cereal aphids in Germany: aspects of their biology and efficacy in different years and regions

Abstract An evaluation was made of the influence of aphidophagous syrphid larvae on the population dynamics of cereal aphids in winter wheat in Germany, using both field records and published information. The peak density of aphid populations was significantly dependent on aphid abundance at the time syrphid larvae became active, a fact indicating the high predation potential of the beneficials as well as the importance of synchronisation. The level of aphid infestation was generally lower in southern than in northern Germany. This difference may result from syrphid larvae being 2–3 weeks earlier in southern Germany, when aphid numbers were only half those found in northern Germany.

Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged.

The Sweet Tooth of Adult Parasitoid Cotesia rubecula: Ignoring Hosts for Nectar?

Investing time and energy into survival and reproduction often presents a trade-off to many species of animals. In parasitic wasps, both hosts and sugar sources contribute to the foragers fitness but are often found in different locations. The decision to search for hosts or for food can have a strong impact on fitness when the foragers lifetime is short and resources are not abundant. We investigated the tendency of flowers and hosts to attract 1-day-old female Cotesia rubecula Marshall (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) with different feeding histories in a wind tunnel. Only well-fed wasps exhibited a preference for hosts. In comparison, unfed wasps visited hosts and flowers in equal proportions. Feeding experience had a strong impact on the searching behavior and the number of landings on both resources. Host and food stimuli seem to be equally attractive to hungry parasitic wasps such as C. rubecula. We expect that under field conditions the time available for active food searching in female C. rubecula is short and influenced by the presence of hosts.

Life-history decisions under predation risk:Importance of a game perspective

We model ontogenetic shifts (e.g. in food or habitat use) during development under predation risk. We ask whether inclusion of state and frequency dependence will provide new insights when compared with game-free life-history theory. We model a simple biological scenario in which a prey animal must switch from a low-predation, low-growth habitat to a high-predation, high-growth habitat. To assess the importance of frequency dependence, we compare the results of four scenarios of increasing complexity: (1) no predation; (2) constant predation; (3) frequency-dependent predation (predation risk diluted at high prey density); and (4) frequency-dependent predation as in (3) but with predators allowed to respond adaptively to prey behaviour. State dependence is included in all scenarios through initial size, assumed to be environmental. A genetic algorithm is used to search for optimal solutions to the scenarios. We find substantially different results in the four different scenarios and suggest a decision tree by which biological systems could be tested to ascertain which scenario is most applicable.

Herbivore‐Mediated Ecological Costs of Reproduction Shape the Life History of an Iteroparous Plant

Plant reproduction yields immediate fitness benefits but can be costly in terms of survival, growth, and future fecundity. Life‐history theory posits that reproductive strategies are shaped by trade‐offs between current and future fitness that result from these direct costs of reproduction. Plant reproduction may also incur indirect ecological costs if it increases susceptibility to herbivores. Yet ecological costs of reproduction have received little empirical attention and remain poorly integrated into life‐history theory. Here, we provide evidence for herbivore‐mediated ecological costs of reproduction, and we develop theory to examine how these costs influence plant life‐history strategies. Field experiments with an iteroparous cactus (Opuntia imbricata) indicated that greater reproductive effort (proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction) led to greater attack by a cactus‐feeding insect (Narnia pallidicornis) and that damage by this herbivore reduced reproductive success. A dynamic programming model predicted strongly divergent optimal reproductive strategies when ecological costs were included, compared with when these costs were ignored. Meristem allocation by cacti in the field matched the optimal strategy expected under ecological costs of reproduction. The results indicate that plant reproductive allocation can strongly influence the intensity of interactions with herbivores and that associated ecological costs can play an important selective role in the evolution of plant life histories.

Estimating the frequency of Cry1F resistance in field populations of the European corn borer (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

BACKGROUND Transgenic corn hybrids that express toxins from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have suppressed European corn borer populations and reduced the pest status of this insect throughout much of the US corn belt. A major assumption of the high-dose/refuge strategy proposed for insect resistance management and Bt corn is that the frequency of resistance alleles is low so that resistant pests surviving exposure to Bt corn will be rare. RESULTS The frequency of resistance to the Cry1F Bt toxin was estimated using two different screening tools and compared with annual susceptibility monitoring based on diagnostic bioassays and LC50 and EC50 determinations. An F1 screening approach where field-collected individuals were mated to a resistant laboratory strain and progeny were assayed to determine genotype revealed that resistance alleles could be recovered even during the first year of commercially available Cry1F corn (2003). Estimates of frequency from 2003-2005 and 2006-2008 indicated that, although allele frequency was higher than theoretical assumptions (0.0286 and 0.0253 respectively), there was no indication that the frequency was increasing. Similar estimates in 2008 and 2009 using an F2 screening approach confirmed the presence of non-rare resistance alleles (frequency ≈ 0.0093 and 0.0142 for 2008 and 2009, respectively). The results of both screening methods were in general agreement with the observed mortality in diagnostic bioassays and LC50 and EC50 determinations. CONCLUSIONS These results are consistent with previous modeling results, suggesting that the high-dose/refuge strategy that is in place for Bt corn may be effective in delaying resistance evolution even when a relatively high frequency of resistance alleles exists.

Submaximal Oviposition Rates in a Mymarid Parasitoid:Choosiness Should Not Be Ignored

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Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models

Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium.

Feedback control systems analysis of density dependent population dynamics

Abstract We use feedback control methods to prove a trichotomy of stability for nonlinear (density dependent) discrete-time population dynamics defined on a natural state space of non-negative vectors. Specifically, using comparison results and small gain techniques we obtain a computable formula for parameter ranges when one of the following must hold: there is a positive, globally asymptotically stable equilibrium; zero is globally asymptotically stable or all solutions with non-zero initial conditions diverge. We apply our results to a model for Chinook Salmon.