Eric Alan Eager

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed’s age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Math Bio or Biomath? Flipping the mathematical biology classroom

Abstract Mathematical and computational methods are vital to many areas of contemporary biological research, such as genomics, molecular modeling, structural biology, ecology, evolutionary biology, neurobiology, and systems biology. As such, the contemporary life science student needs to be exposed to, if not well-versed in, many areas of mathematics to keep pace. However, traditional ways of teaching mathematics may not be able to provide life science majors the skills and experiences necessary to effectively use mathematics in their careers as practitioners and/or researchers, as these skills and experiences (for example, mathematical modeling and interdisciplinary collaboration) are difficult to teach using lecture-style approaches. In this paper the authors describe the implementation and assessment of a flipped-classroom approach to teaching a sophomore-level mathematical biology course for life science majors.

Disturbance Frequency and Vertical Distribution of Seeds Affect Long-Term Population Dynamics: A Mechanistic Seed Bank Model

Seed banks are critically important for disturbance specialist plants because seeds of these species germinate only in disturbed soil. Disturbance and seed depth affect the survival and germination probability of seeds in the seed bank, which in turn affect population dynamics. We develop a density-dependent stochastic integral projection model to evaluate the effect of stochastic soil disturbances on plant population dynamics with an emphasis on mimicking how disturbances vertically redistribute seeds within the seed bank. We perform a simulation analysis of the effect of the frequency and mean depth of disturbances on the population’s quasi-extinction probability, as well as the long-term mean and variance of the total density of seeds in the seed bank. We show that increasing the frequency of disturbances increases the long-term viability of the population, but the relationship between the mean depth of disturbance and the long-term viability of the population are not necessarily monotonic for all parameter combinations. Specifically, an increase in the probability of disturbance increases the long-term viability of the total seed bank population. However, if the probability of disturbance is too low, a shallower mean depth of disturbance can increase long-term viability, a relationship that switches as the probability of disturbance increases. However, a shallow disturbance depth is beneficial only in scenarios with low survival in the seed bank.

Assessing local population vulnerability with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration

Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii).

Modeling and Analysis of a Density-Dependent Stochastic Integral Projection Model for a Disturbance Specialist Plant and Its Seed Bank

In many plant species dormant seeds can persist in the soil for one to several years. The formation of these seed banks is especially important for disturbance specialist plants, as seeds of these species germinate only in disturbed soil. Seed movement caused by disturbances affects the survival and germination probability of seeds in the seed bank, which subsequently affect population dynamics. In this paper, we develop a stochastic integral projection model for a general disturbance specialist plant-seed bank population that takes into account both the frequency and intensity of random disturbances, as well as vertical seed movement and density-dependent seedling establishment. We show that the probability measures associated with the plant-seed bank population converge weakly to a unique measure, independent of initial population. We also show that the population either persists with probability one or goes extinct with probability one, and provides a sharp criteria for this dichotomy. We apply our results to an example motivated by wild sunflower (Helianthus annuus) populations, and explore how the presence or absence of a “storage effect” impacts how a population responds to different disturbance scenarios.

Modelling and analysis of population dynamics using Lur’e systems accounting for competition from adult conspecifics

We study the equilibrium dynamics of a Lur’e system modelling a structured population, where adult conspecifics are assumed to have a negative density-dependent feedback on the recruitment of possible recruits. We find that, depending on the model’s parameter values, the population either goes extinct or has a positive equilibrium that is asymptotically stable, globally attracting or globally asymptotically stable. We apply our results to an integral projection model for the Platte thistle (Cirsium canescens) and highlight open aspects of this problem for future work.

A day of immersive physiology experiments increases knowledge and excitement towards physiology and scientific careers in Native American students

Underserved minority groups are disproportionately absent from the pursuit of careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. One such underserved population, Native Americans, are particularly underrepresented in STEM fields. Although recent advocacy and outreach designed toward increasing minority involvement in health care-related occupations have been mostly successful, little is known about the efficacy of outreach programs in increasing minority enthusiasm toward careers in traditional scientific professions. Furthermore, very little is known about outreach among Native American schools toward increasing involvement in STEM. We collaborated with tribal middle and high schools in South Dakota and Nebraska through a National Institutes of Health Science Education Partnership Award to hold a day-long physiology, activity-based event to increase both understanding of physiology and enthusiasm to scientific careers. We recruited volunteer biomedical scientists and trainees from the University of Nebraska Medical Center, Nebraska Wesleyan University, and University of South Dakota. To evaluate the effectiveness of the day of activities, 224 of the ~275-300 participating students completed both a pre- and postevent evaluation assessment. We observed increases in both students self-perceived knowledge of physiology and enthusiasm toward scientific career opportunities after the day of outreach activities. We conclude that activity-based learning opportunities in underserved populations are effective in increasing both knowledge of science and interest in scientific careers.

Modeling and Analysis of American Chestnut Populations Subject to Various Stages of Infection

Abstract American chestnuts, Castanea dentata, were once a dominant tree in eastern deciduous forests of the United States before the chestnut blight fungus, Cryphonectria parasitica, was introduced unintentionally in the early 1900s in New York. This fungus rapidly devastated American chestnut populations until a hypovirus infection of the fungus began to reduce pathogen virulence on chestnut trees. The subsequent reappearance of large reproducing chestnut trees, associated with a large proportion of blight-infected isolates being parasitized by this hypovirus, is currently taken to indicate recovery of American chestnut populations. We explore, using previously-established matrix population models, the dynamics of healthy, fungus-infected, and hypovirus-infected American chestnut populations to test the efficacy of this recovery. Our main result is that populations transitioning from being fungus-infected to hypovirus-infected are predicted to show large transient amplifications as a result of demographic transitions, only to decline asymptotically to zero, and this result is robust to uncertainty in fecundity values. Our results suggest that the current recovery of the American chestnut population may be a transient phenomenon and that more conservation efforts may be necessary to ensure its long-term persistence.

Using a Summer REU to Help Develop the Next Generation of Mathematical Ecologists

Understanding the complexities of environmental issues requires individuals to bring together ideas and data from different disciplines, including ecology and mathematics. With funding from the national science foundation (NSF), scientists from the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse and the US geological survey held a research experience for undergraduates (REU) program in the summer of 2016. The goals of the program were to expose students to open problems in the area of mathematical ecology, motivate students to pursue STEM-related positions, and to prepare students for research within interdisciplinary, collaborative settings. Based on backgrounds and interests, eight students were selected to participate in one of two research projects: wind energy and wildlife conservation or the establishment and spread of waterfowl diseases. Each research program was overseen by a mathematician and a biologist. Regardless of the research focus, the program first began with formal lectures to provide students with foundational knowledge followed by student-driven research projects. Throughout this period, student teams worked in close association with their mentors to create, parameterize and evaluate ecological models to better understand their systems of interest. Students then disseminated their results at local, regional, and international meetings and through publications (one in press and one in progress). Direct and indirect measures of student development revealed that our REU program fostered a deep appreciation for and understanding of mathematical ecology. Finally, the program allowed students to gain experiences working with individuals with different backgrounds and perspectives. Taken together, this REU program allowed us to successfully excite, motivate and prepare students for future positions in the area of mathematical biology, and because of this it can be used as a model for interdisciplinary programs at other institutions.