Briony Cathryn Rogers

Many roads to Rome

This article presents an exploratory modelling approach that illustrates how overall transition pathways can emerge from a limited number of underlying change patterns. Pathways describe the temporal development of transitions, they are trajectories of change that carry societal systems such as health care, energy supply or water management into qualitatively different states. Under any given input scenario, a very large number of different pathways may result due to uncertainties such as those related to human agency. Though the pathways all differ in detail, clusters of pathways share enough qualitative similarities to allow identification of a small number of ideal types: many roads to Rome. The input scenario influences how often the various types of futures emerge, not what types emerge. The article explores this using a series of hypothetical cases and compares the results with ideal-typical pathways from the literature. A historical case is simulated for illustration. An exploratory modelling approach for sustainability transitions is presented.Sustainability transition pathways from the literature are reproduced bottom up.Any single scenario may give rise to several different types of future pathways.Different scenarios lead to similar kinds of future pathways: many roads to Rome.Scenarios influence how often types of futures emerge, not what types emerge.

Modelling transitions in urban water systems

Long term planning of urban water infrastructure requires acknowledgement that transitions in the water system are driven by changes in the urban environment, as well as societal dynamics. Inherent to the complexity of these underlying processes is that the dynamics of a systems evolution cannot be explained by linear cause-effect relationships and cannot be predicted under narrow sets of assumptions. Planning therefore needs to consider the functional behaviour and performance of integrated flexible infrastructure systems under a wide range of future conditions. This paper presents the first step towards a new generation of integrated planning tools that take such an exploratory planning approach. The spatially explicit model, denoted DAnCE4Water, integrates urban development patterns, water infrastructure changes and the dynamics of socio-institutional changes. While the individual components of the DAnCE4Water model (i.e. modules for simulation of urban development, societal dynamics and evolution/performance of water infrastructure) have been developed elsewhere, this paper presents their integration into a single model. We explain the modelling framework of DAnCE4Water, its potential utility and its software implementation. The integrated model is validated for the case study of an urban catchment located in Melbourne, Australia.

A Framework to Guide Transitions to Water Sensitive Cities

This chapter explores the transition challenges and opportunities facing urban water sectors globally, as pressures from urbanisation, climate change and ecological degradation drive new approaches to urban water management. Framed around the vision of a future Water Sensitive City and drawing on empirical evidence from a case study of storm-water quality management in Melbourne, Australia, this chapter presents a framework for benchmarking a city’s progress in its urban water transition. It provides a nuanced understanding of how these complex change processes unfold and identifies the enabling conditions that can be used to help steer change in urban water systems towards the envisioned water sensitive city.