Bruce C. Forbes

Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands

Pronounced increases in winter temperature result in lower seasonal temperature differences, with implications for vegetation seasonality and productivity. Research now indicates that temperature and vegetation seasonality in northern ecosystems have diminished to an extent equivalent to a southerly shift of 4°– 7° in latitude, and may reach the equivalent of up to 20° over the twenty-first century.

High resilience in the Yamal-Nenets social–ecological system, West Siberian Arctic, Russia

Tundra ecosystems are vulnerable to hydrocarbon development, in part because small-scale, low-intensity disturbances can affect vegetation, permafrost soils, and wildlife out of proportion to their spatial extent. Scaling up to include human residents, tightly integrated arctic social-ecological systems (SESs) are believed similarly susceptible to industrial impacts and climate change. In contrast to northern Alaska and Canada, most terrestrial and aquatic components of West Siberian oil and gas fields are seasonally exploited by migratory herders, hunters, fishers, and domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.). Despite anthropogenic fragmentation and transformation of a large proportion of the environment, recent socioeconomic upheaval, and pronounced climate warming, we find the Yamal-Nenets SES highly resilient according to a few key measures. We detail the remarkable extent to which the system has successfully reorganized in response to recent shocks and evaluate the limits of the systems capacity to respond. Our analytical approach combines quantitative methods with participant observation to understand the overall effects of rapid land use and climate change at the level of the entire Yamal system, detect thresholds crossed using surrogates, and identify potential traps. Institutional constraints and drivers were as important as the documented ecological changes. Particularly crucial to success is the unfettered movement of people and animals in space and time, which allows them to alternately avoid or exploit a wide range of natural and anthropogenic habitats. However, expansion of infrastructure, concomitant terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem degradation, climate change, and a massive influx of workers underway present a looming threat to future resilience.

Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change

Abstract The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change.

Multiple Effects of Changes in Arctic Snow Cover

Snow cover plays a major role in the climate, hydrological and ecological systems of the Arctic and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g. reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g. insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. Feedbacks to the climate system have global consequences. The livelihoods and well-being of Arctic residents and many services for the wider population depend on snow conditions so changes have important consequences. Already, changing snow conditions, particularly reduced summer soil moisture, winter thaw events and rain-on-snow conditions have negatively affected commercial forestry, reindeer herding, some wild animal populations and vegetation. Reductions in snow cover are also adversely impacting indigenous peoples’ access to traditional foods with negative impacts on human health and well-being. However, there are likely to be some benefits from a changing Arctic snow regime such as more even run-off from melting snow that favours hydropower operations.

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release w ...

Arctic climate change discourse: the contrasting politics of research agendas in the West and Russia

In this paper we explore howWestern scientific concepts and attitudes towards indigenous knowledge, as they pertain to resource management and climate change, differ from the prevailing view in modern Russia. Western indigenous leaders representing the Inuit and Saami peoples are actively engaged in the academic and political discourse surrounding climate change, whereas their Russian colleagues tend to focus more on legislation and self-determination, as a post-Soviet legacy. We contribute to the debate with data from the Nenets tundra, showing how different research has employed the three crucial Western research paradigms of climate change, wildlife management and indigenous knowledge on the ground. We suggest that the daily practice of tundra nomadism involves permanent processes of negotiating one’s position in a changing environment, which is why “adaptation” is woven into the society, and cosmology as a whole, rather than being separable into distinct “bodies” of knowledge or Western-designed categories. We argue that research agendas should be placed in their proper local and regional context, and temporal framework: for example, by collaborating with herders on the topics of weather instead of climate change, herding skills instead of wildlife management, and ways of engaging with the tundra instead of traditional ecological knowledge.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

Detection of snow surface thawing and refreezing in the Eurasian Arctic with QuikSCAT: implications for reindeer herding.

Snow conditions play an important role for reindeer herding. In particular, the formation of ice crusts after rain-on-snow (ROS) events or general surface thawing with subsequent refreezing impedes foraging. Such events can be monitored using satellite data. A monitoring scheme has been developed for observation at the circumpolar scale based on data from the active microwave sensor SeaWinds on QuikSCAT (Ku-band), which is sensitive to changes on the snow surface. Ground observations on Yamal Peninsula were used for algorithm development. Snow refreezing patterns are presented for northern Eurasia above 60 degrees N from autumn 2001 to spring 2008. Western Siberia is more affected than Central and Eastern Siberia in accordance with climate data, and most events occur in November and April. Ice layers in late winter have an especially negative effect on reindeer as they are already weakened. Yamal Peninsula is located within a transition zone between high and low frequency of events. Refreezing was observed more than once a winter across the entire peninsula during recent years. The southern part experienced refreezing events on average four times each winter. Currently, herders can migrate laterally or north-south, depending on where and when a given event occurs. However, formation of ice crusts in the northern part of the peninsula may become as common as they are now in the southern part. Such a development would further constrain the possibility to migrate on the peninsula.

Reindeer Management in Northernmost Europe

The first € price and the £ and

Geographic Variations in Anthropogenic Drivers that Influence the Vulnerability and Resilience of Social-Ecological Systems

price are net prices, subject to local VAT. Prices indicated with * include VAT for books; the €(D) includes 7% for Germany, the €(A) includes 10% for Austria. Prices indicated with ** include VAT for electronic products; 19% for Germany, 20% for Austria. All prices exclusive of carriage charges. Prices and other details are subject to change without notice. All errors and omissions excepted. B.C. Forbes, M. Bölter, L. Müller-Wille, J. Hukkinen, F. Müller, N. Gunslay, Y. Konstantinov (Eds.) Reindeer Management in Northernmost Europe