Donald A. Walker

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55degreesN, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Long-term studies of snow-vegetation interactions

Relationships among vegetation, wind, snow, and temperature regimes may help predict effects of climate change. This paper presents a hierarchic geographic information system (HGIS) which helps examine links between species distributions at the plot level, at the level of landscape patterns of plant communities, and at the level of regional patterns of greeness. Geographically referencing ecological data, mapping techniques, landscape and regional scale mapping, and linking ground-level observations to remotely sensed information are all discussed. Results include discussion of specific plant species-snow relationships, landscape-level patterns of specific plant communities, regional patterns of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and linking patterns to variations in climate or direct anthropogenic impacts. 50 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs.

Circumpolar Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Is Linked to Sea Ice Decline

Abstract Linkages between diminishing Arctic sea ice and changes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems have not been previously demonstrated. Here, the authors use a newly available Arctic Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset (a measure of vegetation photosynthetic capacity) to document coherent temporal relationships between near-coastal sea ice, summer tundra land surface temperatures, and vegetation productivity. The authors find that, during the period of satellite observations (1982–2008), sea ice within 50 km of the coast during the period of early summer ice breakup declined an average of 25% for the Arctic as a whole, with much larger changes in the East Siberian Sea to Chukchi Sea sectors (>44% decline). The changes in sea ice conditions are most directly relevant and have the strongest effect on the villages and ecosystems immediately adjacent to the coast, but the terrestrial effects of sea ice changes also extend far inland. Low-elevation (<300 m) tundra summer land temperatures, a...

Long-term experimental manipulation of winter snow regime and summer temperature in arctic and alpine tundra

Three 60 m long, 2·8 m high snowfences have been erected to study long-term effects of changing winter snow conditions on arctic and alpine tundra. This paper describes the experimental design and short-term effects. Open-top fiberglass warming chambers are placed along the experimental snow gradients and in controls areas outside the fences; each warming plot is paired with an unwarmed plot. The purpose of the experiment is to examine short- and long-term changes to the integrated physical-biological systems under simultaneous changes of winter snow regime and summer temperature, as part of the Long-Term Ecological Research network and the International Tundra Experiment. The sites were at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, a temperate high altitude site in the Colorado Rockies, and Toolik Lake, Alaska, a high-latitude site. Initial results indicate that although experimental designs are essentially identical at the arctic and alpine sites, experimental effects are different. The drift at Niwot Ridge lasts much longer than do the Toolik Lake drifts, so that the Niwot Ridge fence affects both summer and winter conditions, whereas the Toolik Lake fence affects primarily winter conditions. The temperature experiment also differs in effect between the sites. Although the average temperature increase at the two sites is similar (daily increase 1·5 °C at Toolik and 1·9 °C at Niwot Ridge), at Toolik Lake there is only minor diurnal variation, whereas at Niwot Ridge the daytime increases are extreme on sunny days (as much as 7–10 °C), and minimum nighttime temperatures in the chambers are often slightly cooler than ambient (by about 1 °C). The experimental drifts resulted in wintertime increases in temperature and CO2 flux. Temperatures under the deep drifts were much more consistent and warmer than in control areas, and at Niwot Ridge remained very close to 0 °C all winter. These increased temperatures were likely responsible for observed increases in system carbon loss. Initial changes to the aboveground biotic system included an increase in growth in response to both snow and warming, despite a reduced growing season. This is expected to be a transient response that will eventually be replaced by reduced growth. At least one species, Kobresia myosuroides, had almost completely died at Niwot Ridge three years after fence construction, whereas other species were increasing. We expect in both the short- and long-term to see the strongest effects of snow at the Niwot Ridge site, and stronger effects of temperature at Toolik Lake. Copyright

Ecological Consequences of Sea-Ice Decline

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Estimating active-layer thickness over a large region: Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, U.S.A

Active-layer thickness was mapped over a 26,278-km2 area of northern Alaska containing complex and highly variable patterns of topography, vegetation, and soil properties. Procedures included frequ...

Plant communities of a tussock tundra landscape in the Brooks Range Foothills, Alaska

We present the first vegetation analysis from the Arctic Foothills of northern Alaska according to the Braun- Blanquet approach. The data are from the Imnavait Creek and Toolik Lake regions. We focus on associations of dry and mesic upland surfaces and moderate snow accumulation sites; other upland plant communities, i.e. those of blockfields, non- sorted circles, and water tracks, are briefly described. Sum- mary floristic information is presented in a synoptic table. Five associations and 15 community types are tentatively placed into seven existing syntaxonomical classes. The com- munity descriptions are arranged according to habitat: dry exposed acidic sites, moist acidic shallow snowbeds, moist non-acidic snowbeds, moist acidic uplands, and moist non- acidic uplands. Many of the communities are Beringian vicariants of associations previously described from Green- land and the European Arctic. The described communities have a widespread distribution in northern Alaska. The rela- tionship of the associations to complex environmental gradi- ents are analyzed using Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Community composition is controlled primarily by meso- topographic relationships (slope position and soil moisture), microscale disturbances, and factors related to long-term land- scape evolution.

Winter and early spring CO2 efflux from tundra communities of northern Alaska

Carbon dioxide concentrations through snow were measured in different arctic tundra communities on the North Slope of Alaska during winter and early spring of 1996. Subnivean CO 2 concentrations were always higher than atmospheric CO 2 . A steady state diffusion model was used to generate conservative estimates of CO 2 flux to the atmosphere. The magnitude of CO 2 efflux differed with tundra community type, and rates of carbon release increased from March to May. Winter CO 2 efflux was highest in riparian and snow bed communities and lowest in dry heath, upland tussock, and wet sedge communities. Snow generally accrues earlier in winter and is deeper in riparian and snow bed communities compared with other tundra communities, which are typically windswept and do not accumulate much snow during the winter. These results support the hypothesis that early and deep snow accumulation may insulate microbial populations from very cold temperatures, allowing sites with earlier snow cover to sustain higher levels of activity throughout winter compared to communities that have later developing snow cover. Extrapolating our estimates of CO 2 efflux to the entire snow-covered season indicates that total carbon flux during winter in the Arctic is 13-109 kg CO 2 -C ha -1 , depending on the vegetation community type. Wintertime CO 2 flux is a potentially important, yet largely overlooked, part of the annual carbon cycle of tundra, and carbon release during winter should be accounted for in estimates of annual carbon balance in arctic ecosystems.

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55°N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55°N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (∼200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (∼200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types.

Characteristics of cryogenic soils along a latitudinal transect in arctic Alaska

The morphological, chemical, and physical properties of arctic tundra soils were examined along a 200-km latitudinal gradient in northern Alaska which includes two major physiographic provinces; the Arctic Coastal Plain and the Arctic Foothills. Annual air temperature and precipitation increase along the gradient from north to south. Soils on the Arctic Coastal Plain support wet, nonacidic tundra vegetation and have high carbonate contents. Soil on the Arctic Foothills support moist, nonacidic tundra in the northern part and moist acidic tundra in the southern part. Most arctic tundra soils are characterized by medium texture, poor drainage, and high organic matter content. From north to south along the transect, the base saturation of the active layer decreases and exchangeable aluminum increases from north to south. Most soils have strongly developed cryogenic features, including warped and broken horizons, ice lenses, thin platy structure, and organic matter frost-churned into the ice-rich upper permafrost horizons.