Bruce E. Young

Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming

As the Earth warms, many species are likely to disappear, often because of changing disease dynamics. Here we show that a recent mass extinction associated with pathogen outbreaks is tied to global warming. Seventeen years ago, in the mountains of Costa Rica, the Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.) vanished along with the golden toad (Bufo periglenes). An estimated 67% of the 110 or so species of Atelopus, which are endemic to the American tropics, have met the same fate, and a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is implicated. Analysing the timing of losses in relation to changes in sea surface and air temperatures, we conclude with ‘very high confidence’ (> 99%, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC) that large-scale warming is a key factor in the disappearances. We propose that temperatures at many highland localities are shifting towards the growth optimum of Batrachochytrium, thus encouraging outbreaks. With climate change promoting infectious disease and eroding biodiversity, the urgency of reducing greenhouse-gas concentrations is now undeniable.

Plant and animal endemism in the eastern Andean slope: challenges to conservation

BackgroundThe Andes-Amazon basin of Peru and Bolivia is one of the most data-poor, biologically rich, and rapidly changing areas of the world. Conservation scientists agree that this area hosts extremely high endemism, perhaps the highest in the world, yet we know little about the geographic distributions of these species and ecosystems within country boundaries. To address this need, we have developed conservation data on endemic biodiversity (~800 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and plants) and terrestrial ecological systems (~90; groups of vegetation communities resulting from the action of ecological processes, substrates, and/or environmental gradients) with which we conduct a fine scale conservation prioritization across the Amazon watershed of Peru and Bolivia. We modelled the geographic distributions of 435 endemic plants and all 347 endemic vertebrate species, from existing museum and herbaria specimens at a regional conservation practitioners scale (1:250,000-1:1,000,000), based on the best available tools and geographic data. We mapped ecological systems, endemic species concentrations, and irreplaceable areas with respect to national level protected areas.ResultsWe found that sizes of endemic species distributions ranged widely (< 20 km2 to > 200,000 km2) across the study area. Bird and mammal endemic species richness was greatest within a narrow 2500-3000 m elevation band along the length of the Andes Mountains. Endemic amphibian richness was highest at 1000-1500 m elevation and concentrated in the southern half of the study area. Geographical distribution of plant endemism was highly taxon-dependent. Irreplaceable areas, defined as locations with the highest number of species with narrow ranges, overlapped slightly with areas of high endemism, yet generally exhibited unique patterns across the study area by species group. We found that many endemic species and ecological systems are lacking national-level protection; a third of endemic species have distributions completely outside of national protected areas. Protected areas cover only 20% of areas of high endemism and 20% of irreplaceable areas. Almost 40% of the 91 ecological systems are in serious need of protection (= < 2% of their ranges protected).ConclusionsWe identify for the first time, areas of high endemic species concentrations and high irreplaceability that have only been roughly indicated in the past at the continental scale. We conclude that new complementary protected areas are needed to safeguard these endemics and ecosystems. An expansion in protected areas will be challenged by geographically isolated micro-endemics, varied endemic patterns among taxa, increasing deforestation, resource extraction, and changes in climate. Relying on pre-existing collections, publically accessible datasets and tools, this working framework is exportable to other regions plagued by incomplete conservation data.

Imputation of missing data in life‐history trait datasets: which approach performs the best?

1. Despite efforts in data collection, missing values are commonplace in life-history trait databases. Because these values typically are not missing randomly, the common practice of removingmissing data not only reduces sample size, but also introduces bias that can lead to incorrect conclusions. Imputingmissing values is a potential solution to this problem. Here, we evaluate the performance of four approaches for estimating missing values in trait databases (K-nearest neighbour (kNN), multivariate imputation by chained equations (mice), missForest and Phylopars), and testwhether imputed datasets retain underlying allometric relationships among traits. 2. Starting with a nearly complete trait dataset on the mammalian order Carnivora (using four traits), we artificially removed values so that the percent ofmissing values ranged from 10% to 80%. Using the original values as a reference, we assessed imputation performance using normalized root mean squared error.We also evaluated whether including phylogenetic information improved imputation performance in kNN, mice, and missForest (it is a required input in Phylopars). Finally, we evaluated the extent to which the allometric relationship between two traits (body mass and longevity) was conserved for imputed datasets by looking at the difference (bias) between the slope of the original and the imputed datasets or datasets with missing values removed. 3. Three of the tested approaches (mice, missForest and Phylopars), resulted in qualitatively equivalent imputation performance, and all had significantly lower errors than kNN. Adding phylogenetic information into the imputation algorithms improved estimation of missing values for all tested traits. The allometric relationship between body mass and longevity was conserved when up to 60% of data were missing, either with or without phylogenetic information, depending on the approach. This relationship was less biased in imputed datasets compared to datasets withmissing values removed, especially whenmore than 30%of values weremissing. 4. Imputations provide valuable alternatives to removing missing observations in trait databases as they produce low errors and retain relationships among traits. Although we must continue to prioritize data collection on species traits, imputations can provide a valuable solution for conducting macroecological and evolutionary studies using life-history trait databases.

Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US

Using Spatial Models to Predict Areas of Endemism and Gaps in the Protection of Andean Slope Birds

160 million (range: US

Species-Specific Nest Site Selection by Birds in Ant-Acacia Trees1

116–204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278–308 person-years) valued at US

A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets using disaggregated global data

14 million (range US

Global warming and amphibian losses; The proximate cause of frog declines? (Reply)

12–16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US

Analysing biodiversity and conservation knowledge products to support regional environmental assessments.

6.5 million in total (range: US

First Description of the Nest of the Silvery-fronted Tapaculo (Scytalopus argentifrons)

6.2–6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US