Diana M. Danforth

The effect of fast-food restaurants on childhood obesity: A school level analysis

We analyze, using an instrumental variable approach, the effect of the number of fast-food restaurants on school level obesity rates in Arkansas. Using distance to the nearest major highway as an instrument, our results suggest that exposure to fast-food restaurants can impact weight outcomes. Specifically, we find that the number of fast-food restaurants within a mile from the school can significantly affect school level obesity rates.

Revisiting GMOs: Are There Differences in European Consumers’ Acceptance and Valuation for Cisgenically vs Transgenically Bred Rice?

Both cisgenesis and transgenesis are plant breeding techniques that can be used to introduce new genes into plant genomes. However, transgenesis uses gene(s) from a non-plant organism or from a donor plant that is sexually incompatible with the recipient plant while cisgenesis involves the introduction of gene(s) from a crossable—sexually compatible—plant. Traditional breeding techniques could possibly achieve the same results as those from cisgenesis, but would require a much larger timeframe. Cisgenesis allows plant breeders to enhance an existing cultivar more quickly and with little to no genetic drag. The current regulation in the European Union (EU) on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) treats cisgenic plants the same as transgenic plants and both are mandatorily labeled as GMOs. This study estimates European consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for rice labeled as GM, cisgenic, with environmental benefits (which cisgenesis could provide), or any combination of these three attributes. Data were collected from 3,002 participants through an online survey administered in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom in 2013. Censored regression models were used to model consumers’ WTP in each country. Model estimates highlight significant differences in WTP across countries. In all five countries, consumers are willing-to-pay a premium to avoid purchasing rice labeled as GM. In all countries except Spain, consumers have a significantly higher WTP to avoid consuming rice labeled as GM compared to rice labeled as cisgenic, suggesting that inserting genes from the plant’s own gene pool is more acceptable to consumers. Additionally, French consumers are willing-to-pay a premium for rice labeled as having environmental benefits compared to conventional rice. These findings suggest that not all GMOs are the same in consumers’ eyes and thus, from a consumer preference perspective, the differences between transgenic and cisgenic products are recommended to be reflected in GMO labeling and trade policies.

FSA Direct Farm Loan Program Graduation Rates and Reasons for Exiting

Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct loans are intended to provide transitory credit to creditworthy borrowers unable to obtain conventional credit at reasonable terms. Farm loan program (FLP) effectiveness is measured in part by how readily direct loan borrowers graduate to conventional credit. A survey of FSA borrowers originating direct loans during fiscal years 1994-1996 is used to estimate graduation rates. A majority of 1994-1996 loan originators did exit the direct FLP by November 2004. A multinomial logit model indicates financial strength at origination resulted in greater likelihood of farming without direct loans approximately 9 years after loan origination.

Competing risks models of Farm Service Agency seven-year direct operating loans

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply duration methods to a sample of Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct, seven-year operating loans to identify those variables that influence the time to loan termination and type of termination. Variables include both those known at time of loan origination and those that characterize the changing economic environment over the life of the loan. Also, to examine the impact of various FSA programs promoting policy objectives. Design/methodology/approach - A systematic sample of 877 seven-year, FSA direct loans originated between October 1, 1993 and September 30, 1996 was collected. Cox regression, competing risks models are estimated as a function of borrower and loan characteristics observable at loan origination. Economic indicator variables emphasizing the farm economy and observed quarterly over the life of the loan are also included as explanatory variables. Findings - Loan characteristics, borrower financial characteristics and degree of borrower interaction with FSA observable at origin are significant variables in determining type of loan outcome (default or paid-in-full) and time to outcome. Changes in the economic environment and farm economy during the life of the loan are significant. Research limitations/implications - The sample consists only of FSA direct loans which implies borrowers are at financial margin. Application of method to agricultural loans from conventional commercial lenders could identify different significant factors. Practical implications - Using length of time to loan termination instead of just type of outcome provides for a richer analysis of loan performance. Loan performance over time is influenced by the larger economy and should be incorporated into loan performance modeling. Originality/value - The study described in the paper demonstrates use of competing risks models on intermediate agricultural loans and develops how this technique can be used to learn about dynamic aspects of loan performance. Sample consists of observations on individual FSA direct loan borrowers. The FSA direct loan program is the major source of credit for agricultural borrowers at the financial margin.